Zheka | Hasbiland

CRYPTO BOY

[wincy.eth @gusik4ever]

another profitable day (4/6), but once again i noticed that i’m still not managing my bankroll as efficiently as i’d like

i’m working on finding a safer and more productive approach for my strategy

➤ i’ve also noticed that more and more people are starting to bet on basketball markets on @Polymarket which honestly makes me really happy

i’m glad to be one of the reasons people are getting into it. it’s amazing to see this space growing

➤ i also want to thank everyone who’s been supporting me on this journey

i’m not a professional trader or better, i’m just a person who loves basketball

that’s why i started this challenge. to make it more fun, share interesting moments, and earn a bit along the way

so keep going

[wincy.eth @gusik4ever]

6th day of my basketball challenge (from $100 to $1000) on @Polymarket

My bank: $113
On bet: $40

Today we have 9 NBA games on @Polymarket

My eyes focus on this:

<> Lakers vs Hornets (bet on Lakers and total Over 229.5)

Lakers come into the game on a four-win streak and are set to dominate a weakened Hornets team that lost two key players – Lamelo Ball and Brandon Miller

Lakers have been solid on the road (3–0), while the Hornets, without their stars, will likely score much less but still try to keep up a fast pace

Link on market: https://t.co/2GKHizP7j3

<> Cavs vs Heat (bet on Cavs and total Under 247.5)

Cavs are in top form (4-game win streak, 7–3 record), while the Heat are missing bam Adebayo on the road

Without their center, the heat drop at least 5–8 points per game.

Cavs play slower (pace 100.8), controlling both tempo and defense, which keeps the overall score down

Link on market: https://t.co/C8CuhoFoZx

<> Spurs vs Bulls (bet on total Over 234.5)

De’aaron Fox just returned from a hamstring injury and adds scoring power to the Spurs

Bulls’ fast pace (102.3) leads to more possessions and higher scoring

if Josh Giddey plays (which seems likely), the chances of a high total go up even more

Link on market: https://t.co/ocgcVzsjCa

<> Bucks vs Mavericks (bet on total Under 232.5)

Mavericks have the second-worst offense in the league (106.5 ppg, lowest among all teams), and their main playmaker, Kyrie Irving, is out for the season

It’s a back-to-back for the Bucks (after Houston), which means a slower game and less energy overall

Link on market: https://t.co/y6p03cjnNb

ALWAYS NFA AND DYOR FAM6th day of my basketball challenge (from $100 to $1000) on @Polymarket

My bank: $113
On bet: $40

Today we have 9 NBA games on @Polymarket

My eyes focus on this:

<> Lakers vs Hornets (bet on Lakers and total Over 229.5)

Lakers come into the game on a four-win streak and are set to dominate a weakened Hornets team that lost two key players – Lamelo Ball and Brandon Miller

Lakers have been solid on the road (3–0), while the Hornets, without their stars, will likely score much less but still try to keep up a fast pace

Link on market: https://t.co/2GKHizP7j3

<> Cavs vs Heat (bet on Cavs and total Under 247.5)

Cavs are in top form (4-game win streak, 7–3 record), while the Heat are missing bam Adebayo on the road

Without their center, the heat drop at least 5–8 points per game.

Cavs play slower (pace 100.8), controlling both tempo and defense, which keeps the overall score down

Link on market: https://t.co/C8CuhoFoZx

<> Spurs vs Bulls (bet on total Over 234.5)

De’aaron Fox just returned from a hamstring injury and adds scoring power to the Spurs

Bulls’ fast pace (102.3) leads to more possessions and higher scoring

if Josh Giddey plays (which seems likely), the chances of a high total go up even more

Link on market: https://t.co/ocgcVzsjCa

<> Bucks vs Mavericks (bet on total Under 232.5)

Mavericks have the second-worst offense in the league (106.5 ppg, lowest among all teams), and their main playmaker, Kyrie Irving, is out for the season

It’s a back-to-back for the Bucks (after Houston), which means a slower game and less energy overall

Link on market: https://t.co/y6p03cjnNb

ALWAYS NFA AND DYOR FAM

[wincy.eth @gusik4ever]

new happy profit night on NBA with @Polymarket

4/5 hit and printed more money (but i should bet more than $5 lmao)

&lt; my paper analytics below :D &gt;

[wincy.eth @gusik4ever]

> 2023:

Polymarket markets start pricing Biden's dropout at 20%, long before any mainstream media even hints at it

Result: Polymarket was right again

> 2024:

After the June debate, Biden's odds of dropping out skyrocket to 80%. By July, he officially quits.

Polymarket traders saw it weeks in advance.

Trump leads the odds from June till Election Night and wins.

Result: Polymarket was right again

> 2025 – Canada:

February: Polymarket gives Pierre Poilievre 87% to become PM

March: Mark Carney enters race, market reverses completely

April 28: Carney wins with 100% odds on Polymarket vs traditional polls

Result: Polymarket was right again

> 2025 – NYC:

Polymarket predicts Zohran Mamdani as NYC mayor with 94% odds before results

Result: Polymarket was right again

>>> Just remember only one thing you need to know:

Polymarket was right again

[wincy.eth @gusik4ever]

it was too obvious

yesterday at the Business Forum in Miami, Trump spoke all 3 words that delivered profit and victory to us

gg with @Polymarket and thanks @realDonaldTrump

[wincy.eth @gusik4ever]

Market "What will Trump say this week (November 3 - 9)?" is so underrated on @Polymarket

I’ve been tracking Trump’s latest moves: his 60 Minutes interview, press conferences, and posts on Truth Social and I see strong potential here for smart “Yes” plays:

<> Transgender (Polymarket prices it at 66%)

Seems like people forgot that Trump has been aggressively pushing anti-transgender policies since January 2025

Between Nov 1–3, the Pentagon issued new directives on transgender military service

On Oct 30, his administration announced the end of Medicare/Medicaid coverage for transgender youth

This is one of the central themes of his second presidency, backed by massive media attention

➤ Real probability of mention: 95%+

2. Zohran Mamdani (Polymarket prices it at 77%)

Mamdani just won the NYC mayoral race despite Trump calling him a “communist”, threatening to cut federal funding to New York if he won, and urging voters to oppose him the day before the election

Given how reactive Trump is to NYC politics, the odds he comments on this are at least 90%+

3. MAGA / Make America Great Again (Polymarket prices it at 71%)

MAGA is his trademark slogan, he uses it in every single public appearance

With Nov 5 marking the anniversary of his re-election and a planned speech in Miami, there’s literally no way he skips it this week

Probability: 99%

< link on market and useful onchain tools below >

[wincy.eth @gusik4ever]

Today we have 6 NBA games on @Polymarket + I started prepare to my challenge (from $100 to $1000 on NBA and Euroleague)

I'm focusing on the games that seem obvious at first glance:

<> Kings – Bucks (bet on Bucks)

Bucks currently hold a strong 4–1 record and are aiming for their third consecutive home win

Giannis remains questionable due to left knee patellar tendinopathy. He missed the previous game against the Warriors, but head coach Doc Rivers is optimistic about his availability and overall health management

Ryan Rollins and Bobby Portis have looked good in Giannis’ absence

The Kings have had a poor start (1–4) and are on a three-game losing streak, which makes the Bucks favored, especially given their home advantage and deeper roster

Link on market: https://t.co/sDdOVLavqK

<> GSW vs Pacers (bet on GSW)

Warriors stand at 4-2, with key players available and expected to play prominent roles

Pacers suffer from a massive injury crisis and field a very depleted team relying on younger, less experienced players; lack of floor leadership and playmaking severely limits their competitiveness

Warriors are clearly favored with a healthy core and twice the team depth, plus superior recent form and home/road context

Link on market: https://t.co/W4SJ23BcAh

ALWAYS NFA AND DYOR FAM

[wincy.eth @gusik4ever]

i just had to make this meme lmao

happy halloween 🎃

i chose trade.

[wincy.eth @gusik4ever]

sport on @Polymarket is underrated

just look at the numbers, over $350M weekly volume across sports, and it’s still early...

Basketball and American football alone cleared $180M+ this week, you can just print with me on basketball

<> no fees
<> no vig
<> no limits

and a community that trades real narratives, not odds set by bookmakers

btw, sports markets are the on-ramp into mainstream U.S. adoption and a shift in how capital flows into prediction markets

partnerships with the @NHL and investments from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) emphasize the seriousness of Polymarket's position

just be with Polymarket, get your chance, print money and getting smart

[wincy.eth @gusik4ever]

How prediction markets mirror European politics

Even if you’re not following Dutch politics, the new @Polymarket on “Which parties will be part of the next government of the Netherlands?” is fascinating to watch

➤ It’s a perfect example of how markets price coalition probabilities in real time

<> D66 – 98%
<> VVD – 94%
<> CDA – 79%
<> JA21 – 48%
<> GL/PvdA – 44%
<> CU – 32%
<> Volt 24% and others...

In multi-party systems like the Netherlands, no one governs alone, so prediction markets here act more like coalition barometers than winner-takes-all bets

➤ I’m personally watching JA21, now around 48%

It’s an interesting underdog case:

<> rising national sentiment toward right-leaning policies
<> potential to ally with VVD
<> their moderate tone could make them a coalition bridge

➤ JA21 is a conservative-liberal party focused on strict migration policy, law-and-order reforms, and a pro-business agenda

They’ve just multiplied their seats in parliament, from 1 to 9 according to exit polls, showing real political momentum that markets may still be underpricing

always NFA DYOR

[wincy.eth @gusik4ever]

Steph just doing Steph things

morning profits with @Polymarket

[wincy.eth @gusik4ever]

https://t.co/TJ8IQQKpqR

[wincy.eth @gusik4ever]

BIG Q: Can Lighter Justify a $4B FDV at Launch?

Prediction markets are heating up ahead of Lighter’s TGE and the odds tell a story of strong conviction mixed with quiet skepticism IYKYK

➤ On Polymarket, traders are betting big:

<> 82% see FDV > $2B
<> 57%: above $4B
<> and only 15% believe it can clear $8B

The market has already seen over $1.7M in volume, making it one of the most liquid DeFi predictions of the month

OTC prices for Lighter Points hover between $55 and $145, implying an early FDV in the $2–4B range, roughly where analysts from Manifold and Binance Research place their estimates too

➤ Now compare that to its rivals:

<> Hyperliquid sits at a $47B FDV
<> Aster at $14B

In its pre-launch phase, Lighter has already processed over $170B in trading volume with a TVL of $848M (+131% since launch), aggressive traction for a still-young DEX

➤ The bullish thesis:

Lighter’s rapid growth curve, its backers (a16z, Paradigm, Lightspeed), and its high engagement metrics signal a strong debut, potentially the most successful on-chain exchange launch since Hyperliquid

➤ The bear case:

Hitting an $8–10B FDV would require institutional-scale demand that’s currently absent in the DeFi perps sector. Retail enthusiasm alone can’t sustain that valuation

➤ I think that a $2–4B FDV is a fair launch zone

Anything beyond would mean the market is not just buying numbers, it’s buying belief...

< link on market and useful onchain tools below >

[wincy.eth @gusik4ever]

Every time the market bets on @elonmusk, someone ends up holding the bag...

Polymarket odds sit at 75% “Yes” that Tesla beats Q3 earnings ($0.50 EPS)

Optimism runs high after record deliveries, 497K cars, tighter cost control, and rising energy revenue

<> Barclays, Wedbush, and Morgan Stanley expect EPS near $0.52–$0.55, with Megapack and Powerwall offsetting weak auto margins

But that delivery boom was likely front-loaded before US tax credits expired

<> Europe’s demand remains soft and automotive gross margins sit at 16–17%, down 4pp YoY. Revenue growth looks fine, but profitability still leaks...

Tesla probably beats consensus, but the reaction won’t be euphoric, let's see

< link on market and useful onchain tools below >

[wincy.eth @gusik4ever]

Monad airdrop called bullshit?

$10M in volume, and everyone’s fading the October drop like it’s already dead

<> 3% odds on Oct 31
<> 22% for mid-Nov

the sentiment flipped the moment Monad limited eligibility to 5.5K wallets

people who actually ran 200M+ testnet txns just got sidelined for NFT whales and "community partners"

now the same wallets that nailed the October miss are back, quietly stacking "No" again

you can call it crowd psychology. i’d call it informed frustration. Monad is losing trust...

until Keone fixes the optics, every deadline feels like a bluff

still, markets aren’t betting against Monad existing, just against it landing clean

<> 85% odds for Nov 30
<> 96% for December 31

so yeah, it’s happening. just messy, delayed, and probably controversial

this @Polymarket chart isn’t noise, it’s sentiment with money behind it, and that’s more honest than any press release

[wincy.eth @gusik4ever]

a young Polymarket builder is here

coded 2 tools to help optimize and improve your trading on @Polymarket

<> Polymarket Parcer – parses new and trending markets 24/7

<> Polymarket Tracker – tracks the top 5 largest positions in a given market and identifies the trader’s direction

thanks to the tracker, i managed to spot the gemini position earlier than 90% of ct and entered the trade profitably

and thanks to the best Polymarket community for the support and feedback – @zscdao

<links to the tools below>

[wincy.eth @gusik4ever]

who wanna be in this folder?

polycycle swag is coming

[wincy.eth @gusik4ever]

Before TIA became a $3B chain, it was just “another node sale”

Mawari looks eerily similar to early Celestia

I made an easy-to-follow video guide on how to set up a node (takes 10 mins)

🧵

[wincy.eth @gusik4ever]

I prepared ULTIMATE guide for everyone who want to enter in Sentient and:

&gt; get the roles
&gt; get an access to platform
&gt; enter in the Kaito leaderboard and get rewards

your playbook 🧵

[wincy.eth @gusik4ever]

Legion deployed the second wave of YieldBasis allocations

but many are facing issues and confusion, i feel you

here’s what i was able to find out from legion support ↓

➤ status confirmed but no email

support says the only thing that really matters is what’s shown on the site

if your dashboard shows “approved” status, that’s the main confirmation

the email is just a notification, and you might not receive it

➤ deposit until october 5

participants of the second wave (batch 2) need to make their deposit by sunday, october 5, 2025, 8 am est / 12 pm utc

➤ different interface

different users see different versions of the page because of overload

if yours was approved only now, so the interface looks different from those who got access earlier

➤ deposit error

support says the problem isn’t on your side, the site has huge traffic, so the interface is glitching

you just need to wait until the system stabilizes

also try making the deposit from a different wallet instead of the one you used originally. this might help!

----------------->

i also want to note that it’s possible an ai agent replied to me, so this shouldn’t be taken as 100% certain, but it’s the information we have right now

it’s also possible that if you haven’t received an email yet, you just need to wait, since we still have about 2 more days and you might get it tomorrow

for now, that’s all the info i’ve been able to find. be careful