James

Là nơi những nỗi buồn của tôi được viết ra khi một mình.

[James @evilgod2501]

Normal day, normal things

[James @evilgod2501]

@amitisinvesting @grok tóm tắt bằng tiếng việt

[James @evilgod2501]

@Xavianmel 1/x of BTC, you pick x :3

[James @evilgod2501]

Hãy cho con đủ để làm những gì chúng muốn, nhưng k đủ để chúng chẳng làm gì cả.

[James @evilgod2501]

What is happening for me?

[James @evilgod2501]

Tĩnh để mà động

[James @evilgod2501]

Trong tay không tiền là địa ngục

[James @evilgod2501]

Nhân sinh có 2 con đường.
Bằng tâm và bằng chân

[James @evilgod2501]

Tưởng có thể khá hơn, thời tới. Ai mà ngờ 😞
~loss 3k trong 1 ngày chỉ vì 1 câu nói.

[plur daddy @plur_daddy]

We are in a bubble, and the most parabolic leg is approaching. The true fireworks will be next year but this Q4 we shall get a taste.

This bubble is fueled by twin narratives: debasement and AI. What is especially potent about these stories is the way they operate on fear, not hope. You NEED to buy gold/BTC to avoid getting your net worth debased away, and you NEED to have AI exposure to offset your future loss of labor market value. As we all know, fear is a much more potent driver of behavior than hope or even greed. These narratives are well known amongst the investing class but they have not yet become prevalent across society at large. I am confident that we will get there.

There is also a lot of investor capital that still hasn't reflected these views yet, especially bureaucratic real money funds such as pensions and endowments being slow on the debasement trade.

We have the Trump admin shifting in a pro-cyclical manner, leaning hard into the bubble, and ready to step on the gas ahead of the midterms.

1. Trump Fed Hijacking: Channel of action is straightforward, rate cuts, and then yield curve control to offset the bond market fallout and stimulate housing. A momentous catalyst. The mechanics of how he can pull this off are complex, and I have already promised a detailed post on this. Most likely this will not happen until May of next year, and will be the driver of the final, most parabolic ascent.

2. Treasury Bills Shift: By shifting USG debt issuance towards bills, this helps long-dated bond yields fall, a form of stimulus since it pushes capital into riskier assets. Treasury bills, having less duration, are a less risky form of asset than long-dated bonds, so they soak up less risk appetite.

3. GSE Balance Sheet: Unlock GSEs to lever up and buy mortgage bonds, lowering mortgage spreads over treasuries, and stimulating the economy through more purchases and refinancing. Trump, as a real estate guy, is very sensitive to that sector of the economy, and wants to get it going.

4. Stimulus Checks: Goes without saying how bullish this is, direct gambling money being airdropped into every US person's bank account. This will be attempted as part of a future budget reconciliation bill. Trump will strongly want this into the midterms as it satisfies the masses, but deficit/inflation hawks on the R side will push back. Decent odds that Trump will eventually prevail given his ironclad control over the party.

The economy is not robust, but it is chugging along, floated by AI capex. All things considered, it has absorbed the tariff headwinds pretty well. It is definitely a two speed economy, with real world businesses and the average consumer not doing great, but the high end and asset owners are soaring.

This is an environment where you want to stay long over the next 12 months, but you should be thoughtful in shifting portfolio composition between gold, BTC, and stocks. As I've mentioned before, my base case is a strong Q4 for BTC, then a sharp downturn as the 4 year cycle debate must be played out in the markets, and finally a rebound that leaves doubters in the dust. This is going to be a thrilling time, keep your eyes on the bigger picture, stay bullish but grounded.

[James @evilgod2501]

"Một vạt nắng nằm quên trên bãi cỏ
Trời chưa mưa đất đã muốn mềm lòng
Sỏi đá cũng đa tình em thấy đó
Huống chi là sương khói, huống chi anh"

[James @evilgod2501]

Với bản thân phải tiết kiệm. Với người thân phải rộng rãi.

[James @evilgod2501]

Mới có chút tiền k nên tự cao.

[James @evilgod2501]

Khi mọi việc k thuận theo ý bạn, thì nghĩa là thuận theo ý trời.

[James @evilgod2501]

Lưỡi không xương, nhưng đừng uốn cong quá kẻo tự đau mình 😏

[James @evilgod2501]

Dăm ba chén rượu, ly trà
Đậm đà thì uống,mà nhạt nhoà thì đổ đi

[James @evilgod2501]

Tự nhiên lại thấy bản thân thật vô dụng. Không giàu có, cũng chẳng tài năng 🥲

[James @evilgod2501]

Solivagant

[James @evilgod2501]

Đời anh có 2 thứ không thể bỏ.
1 là gia đình
2 là tiền

[James @evilgod2501]

Nhân vô thập toàn