Everett Rathe

NFL Content Writer @FanSided | Analytical Game Previews on Substack

[Everett Rathe @EvvRathe]

I'll have a full preview of Missouri @ Ole Miss, along with many more games from this STACKED college football Saturday, coming out Friday at 10 AM EST on my Substack.

Subscribe at the link below!

https://t.co/59RIzvyKyb

[Everett Rathe @EvvRathe]

A few numbers that caught my attention while researching Missouri @ Ole Miss this Saturday.

Two teams with some pretty interesting statistical profiles.

Data courtesy of @gameonpaper and @PFF

🧵 (1/5)

[Everett Rathe @EvvRathe]

I'm pretty surprised Ole Miss is favored by 6 against Missouri.

I obviously like Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebels' offense, but I have serious concerns about their defense.

Missouri's defense ranks 5th in adjusted EPA/play allowed, while Ole Miss ranks 100th.

I'd have this game much closer to a pick'em.

Gimme Missouri +6
Prediction: Missouri 31, Ole Miss 28

(5/5)

[Everett Rathe @EvvRathe]

@RapSheet

[Everett Rathe @EvvRathe]

I'll have a full preview of Ohio State @ Indiana, along with many more games from this STACKED college football Saturday, coming out Friday at 10 AM EST on my Substack.

Subscribe at the link below!

https://t.co/59RIzvycID

[Everett Rathe @EvvRathe]

A few numbers that caught my attention while researching Ohio State @ Indiana this Saturday.

Data courtesy of @gameonpaper and @PFF

A thread 🧵

(1/6)

[Everett Rathe @EvvRathe]

A concern I have for Indiana heading into Saturday:

The Hoosiers rank 76th nationally in defensive EPA/dropback.

Now they have to face an Ohio State passing attack that ranks:

• 2nd in EPA/dropback
• 1st in yards/dropback
• 3rd in passing success rate

Oh, and they have Jeremiah Smith.

Have fun with that!

(6/6)

[Everett Rathe @EvvRathe]

The Hoosiers rank 4th nationally in offensive explosive play rate.

Ohio State's defense ranks 11th in defensive explosive play rate.

Indiana has been one of the most explosive offenses in the country, but the Buckeyes have been excellent at limiting those plays.

Something's gotta give.

(5/6)

[Everett Rathe @EvvRathe]

@UnderdogNFL

[Everett Rathe @EvvRathe]

*me checking twitter after a flight to see how my bears are doing

[Everett Rathe @EvvRathe]

49ers vs. Seahawks might be the best matchup of Week 5.

San Francisco's offense:

• 1st in EPA/play
• 1st in yards/play
• 1st in success rate

Seattle's defense:

• 2nd in EPA/play allowed
• 1st in yards/play allowed
• 2nd in defensive success rate

Should be fun

[Everett Rathe @EvvRathe]

C.J. Stroud from a clean pocket this season:

• 71.2% completion
• 9.3 yards/attempt
• 113.0 passer rating

Now he faces a Titans defense ranking:

• 24th in pressure rate
• 27th in EPA/pass allowed
• 27th in passing yards allowed/play

Could be a big afternoon for Houston's passing attack.

[Everett Rathe @EvvRathe]

The Colts' rushing offense through four weeks:

• 3rd in EPA/rush
• 20th in rushing success rate
• 20th in yards/carry

Huh?

Indianapolis has generated a ton of value from its rushing plays without consistently moving the football.

A perfect example of why EPA and success rate tell different stories.

[Everett Rathe @EvvRathe]

Sam Darnold's splits against zone vs. man coverage this season are WILD.

Against zone:
• +0.11 EPA/play
• 58.6% success rate
• 9.5 yards/attempt

Against man:
• -0.81 EPA/play
• 15.4% success rate
• 2.18 yards/attempt

The 49ers play the SECOND-MOST zone coverage in the NFL.

Something to watch on Sunday.