@DaveHcontrarian@alan68284891 Thanks @DaveHcontrarian - quick follow up - do you have a longer term (~5 yr) forecast coming out of the bust for RE? Will RE benefit from the next inflationary cycle heading into the 2030s?
@DaveHcontrarian@alan68284891 Hi @DaveHcontrarian - do you have any updates to your forecast for general US real estate market? Thanks so much for sharing your insights daily - long term follower (and watcher & learner)
(Warning: long rant)
My liberal friends are completely oblivious about how radicalizing the last week has been for tens of millions of normal Americans. Zero clue.
I’m not talking about people who are “online”; I mean regular, everyday Americans. “Normies.” People who scroll through Facebook posts and Instagram reels from the Dutch Bros drive thru line. Political moderates who have water cooler chats about Mahomes touchdowns and Bon Jovi concerts, not Twitter threads or Rachel Maddow monologues.
Millions of them. Tens of millions. They’re logging on, they’re engaging, and they’re furious.
And I’ll be candid: They blame you guys. They blame the left.
Regardless of whether you believe it to be justified, they think you’re the bad guys here. And they are reacting accordingly.
I can already hear some of you racing toward the comments to start screeching in moral indignation, so I’m going to be blunt: Shut up and listen to what I’m telling you. Your movement will lose any semblance of relevance if you don’t develop some small measure of self-awareness, and—absent someone force-feeding you bitter medicine—you guys collectively lack the humility to do this on your own.
Here are the facts:
Fact 1. Tens of millions of Americans started the week seeing a 23-year-old blonde woman—a young woman in whom virtually every parent watching pictured their own daughter—stabbed in the neck by a career criminal. These people then found out the murderer had been released from jail 14 times over.
Fact 2. Two days later, tens of millions of Americans watched a video of Charlie Kirk get murdered speaking to college students. Millions of these people knew who Charlie was; millions of them didn’t. Upon seeing the video, however, these normal Americans from across the land and across the political spectrum agreed that he was the victim of a terrible, fundamentally unjustifiable crime, and their hearts broke in sympathy for his family. Good people who had never even heard the name Charlie Kirk before wept.
Fact 3. Immediately after seeing the footage of a peaceful young man get shot in the neck, these same people logged onto Facebook and Instagram (remember, we are talking about regular Americans, not perpetually online Twitter or Bluesky users) and saw some of their local nurses, school teachers, college administrators, and retail workers celebrating this horrific crime. Not just defending it, but cheering it.
These are all facts. You may not like the implications of these facts, and we can certainly debate the underlying causes thereof, but, indisputably, they are nevertheless factual statements.
Here’s what it means for you, the Democrats reading this:
These normal, middle-of-the-road, non-political citizens just become politically active. They realized that politics cares about them, even if they don’t particularly care about politics. After watching Iryna Zarutska and Charlie Kirk both bleed out from the neck, they think their lives and the physical safety of their families—the bedrock of human society, the foundation of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs—depend on political activation, whether they desire it or not.
These people are now sprinting—not jogging, not walking, but racing—to the right. Because they blame you guys for everything that just happened.
When they see footage of Decarlos Brown stabbing a Ukrainian refugee to death, they don’t see just one demon-possessed man. They picture every university administrator, HR bureaucrat, and DEI apparatchik that ever lectured them about systemic racism, the “carceral state,” or the need to release violent crime suspects without bail in the name of social justice.
They then think back to conversations they’ve had with their cop friends—their buddy from high school who quit the force after getting tired of being called a racist, their friend at the local YMCA who vents about having to release career criminals because Soros-funded prosecutors aren’t willing to file charges—and they realize everything the left has told them over the last five years has been utter bullshit.
And they blame you. Because, even if you count yourself as a moderate Democrat, your party supported the district attorneys, city council members, and mayors that let fictitious concerns about mental health and racial justice supersede very real concerns for their family’s safety.
When these Americans see blood erupt from the side of Charlie Kirk’s neck, they don’t see just a martyred political activist. They think of every extreme leftist they’ve ever met who (1) calls anyone to the right of Hillary Clinton a fascist and (2) constantly jokes—“jokes”—about punching Nazis and “bashing the fash.”
They realize that there really do exist people who wish to see them dead for their moderately conservative political beliefs, their Christian faith, and even the color of their skin. They ask themselves if the violence visited upon Charlie might one day show up on their own doorstep.
And they blame you. Because, even if you’re just a center-of-the-road liberal, you lacked the courage to police your own ranks. You let modern-day Maoist red guards run loose across every facet of society, and what started with social-media struggle sessions has now turned to 30-06 bullet holes.
When these Americans log onto social media and see their neighbors justifying, celebrating, glorifying murder, they realize that some who walk among them are soulless ghouls at best, literally demon-possessed at worst. These people—whether they faithfully attend church every Sunday or only attend with relatives once a year, on Christmas Eve—start talking about things like spiritual warfare. They implicitly understand that no normal human casually celebrates the mortal demise of a peaceful person.
And they blame you. Because, even if you condemned Charlie Kirk’s murder, they probably haven’t seen you condemn those in your own movement who cheered it on. They view you as complicit in allowing heartless fellow travelers to celebrate death, and it repulses them.
For all of these situations, what has your response been? Nothing but bullshit.
In response to Iryna Zarutska bleeding out on the floor of a train, you post bullshit statistics about reductions in reported crime, when everyone who’s ever been to a major urban center in the last decade knows that actual crime has skyrocketed, only for victims not to waste their time reporting it to cops that don’t have the manpower to respond and prosecutors that seek to downgrade as many felonies as possible to misdemeanor citations.
In response to a 31-year-old man taking a bullet to the neck in front of his family, you post nothing but bullshit whataboutism.
> “What about January 6th?” (Honest answer: After you let Liz Cheney spend two years operating a star chamber in the House, combined with countless other failed attempts at “lawfare” against Trump, no one cares anymore.)
> “What about Mike Lee making a dumb joke on Twitter about some guy in a mask in Minnesota?” (No one outside of Utah, DC, or Twitter knows who Mike Lee even is.)
> “What about Paul Pelosi?” (That’s not comparable to Charlie Kirk getting shot, and we all know it. And, again, Paul who?)
> “What about regulations on assault rifles?” (That’s not going to get you very far when one of these killers used a knife and the other one used a common hunting rifle.)
In response to teachers, healthcare workers, and thousands of other liberals cheering on Charlie’s murder, it’s nothing but more bullshit and misdirection.
> “It’s not THAT many people celebrating!” (Yes, it is. Everyone has seen it on their Facebook and Instagram feeds.)
> “I thought you guys didn’t support cancel culture.” (We don’t cancel people over their opinions; we’re more than happy to see people lose their jobs—especially their taxpayer-funded jobs—for actively cheering on murder, though. If you can’t see the difference, that’s your own shortcoming.)
All bullshit. Not even smart bullshit, but stale, mid-grade, low-IQ bullshit. Ordinary Americans see right through it, and they don’t like how it smells.
You probably don’t like hearing this. But you need to hear it.
Because I’m right, and, as you reflect on this, you know I’m right. The ranks of my political movement gained millions of righteously angry new members this week. We have a mandate to ensure these crimes never happen again, and that’s exactly what we are now going to do.
If you want to keep a seat at the table as we do so, you’d better clean house and start policing your own.
I hope I'm wrong.
But tonight feels like some sort of invisible line has been crossed that we didn't even know was there. The last time I felt like this was 9/11 when it was clear, without knowing the how and the what, that the world was about to change forever.
Like the rules of the game had been permanently altered and there was simply no going to back to the innocent, peaceful past.
I didn't feel like this when an attempt was made on President Trump's life. If I had to rationalise why I didn't, I guess it's because several US Presidents have been shot at and even assassinated. Somehow it was within the realms of the possible, no matter how awful.
But to murder a young father simply for doing debates and mobilising young people to vote for a party that represents half of America? This is something else.
Charlie's death is a tragedy for his wife, his children and his family. I don't pray often. I am praying for them tonight.
But I fear his murder will be a tragedy for all of us in ways we will only understand as time unfolds.
I hope I'm wrong.
For my British and European friends who are "shocked" and "surprised", here are 10 reasons you didn't see this coming.
Read this short post and then read the replies from our American friends who will confirm what I'm saying.
1. Americans love their country and want it to be the best in the world. America is a nation of people who conquered a continent. They love strength. They love winning. Any leader who appeals to that has an automatic advantage.
2. Unlike Europeans, Americans have not accepted managed decline. They don't have Net Zero here, they believe in producing their own energy and making it as cheap as possible because they know that their prosperity depends on it.
3. Prices for most basic goods in the US have increased rapidly and are sky high. What the official statistics say about inflation and the reality of people's lives are not the same.
4. Unlike you, Americans do not believe in socialism. They believe in meritocracy. They don't care about the super rich being super rich because they know that they live in a country where being super rich is available to anyone with the talent and drive to make it. They don't resent success, they celebrate it.
5. Americans are the most pro-immigration people in the world. Read that again. Seriously, read it again. Americans love an immigrant success story. They want more talented immigrants to come to America. But they refuse to accept people coming illegally. They believe in having a border.
6. Americans are sensitive about racial issues and their country's imperfect history. They believe that those who are disadvantaged by the circumstances of their birth should be given the opportunity to succeed. What they reject, however, is the idea that in order to address the errors of the past new errors must be made. DEI is racist. They know it and they reject it precisely because they are not racist.
7. Americans are the most philosemitic nation on earth. October 7 and the pro-Hamas left's reaction shocked them to their very core because, among other things, they remember what 9/11 was like and they know jihad when they see it.
8. Americans are extremely practical people. They care about what works, not what sounds good. In Europe, we produce great writers and intellectuals. In America they produce (and attract) great engineers, businessmen and investors. Because of this, they care less about Trump's rhetoric than you do and more about his policies than you do.
9. Americans are deeply optimistic people. They hate negativity. The woke view of American history as a series of evils for which they must eternally apologise is utterly abhorrent to them. They believe in moving forward together, not endlessly obsessing about the past.
10. America is a country whose founding story is one of resistance to government overreach. They loathe unnecessary restrictions, regulations and control. They understand that freedom comes with the price of self-reliance and they pay it gladly.
10 Novels Guys Need to Read Before Death:
1. Moby-Dick, Melville
2. Absalom, Absalom! Faulkner
3. Ulysses, Joyce
4. Lolita, Nabokov
5. Blood Meridian, McCarthy
6. The Son, Meyer
7. Molloy, Beckett
8. The Good Soldier, Ford
9. Gilead, Robinson
10. The English Patient, Ondaatje
I just watched this again with my pops. If you haven't listened to it in full, you should set aside time this week and make it happen. The way he lays out the blueprint is extraordinary! Once you grasp it, you've solved the puzzle. Then it all makes sense.
*Save this post and never run out of conversation starters with your kids*
Getting to know our kids is one of the most important things we can do as parents
But surprisingly, a lot of parents I talk to don't know where to start
The answer is simple, we just need to get in the habit of talking to our kids
And one of the best ways to do that is by asking questions and getting their opinions
So I hope this list is helpful for you all, providing you with an endless supply of conversation starters
As a dad, I treat this like a dialogue. I'll ask my oldest a question from the list, then he'll ask me one, and we take turns answering
Because as important as it is for us to get to know our kids, it's equally important that they get to know US.
HERE'S THE LIST:
1. What was your favorite part of your day today?
2. What's something that made you feel proud today?
3. What's something you want to do with me in the future?
4. What do you like most about our family?
5. If you could change one thing about our family, what would it be?
6. What's something you're really good at?
7. What's another thing you're really good at?
8. What's something you wish you were better at?
9. What's something you could do to get better at it?
10. What's your favorite tradition in our family?
11. What's a special memory you have with me?
12. What's your favorite memory ever?
13. What are some of your favorite activities?
14. If you could start a business, what would it be?
15. What's your favorite book?
16. Why is it your favorite?
17. What's your favorite way to spend a weekend?
18. What's your favorite song?
19. What do you like about the song?
20. What's something funny that happened this week?
21. If you could travel anywhere in the world, where would you go?
22. Where's a place you don't want to visit and why?
23. What do you like most about living in our city/town?
24. What's your favorite holiday?
25. Why do you like this holiday so much?
26. What's something you're looking forward to?
27. If you could ask me any question in the world, what would it be?
28. What's something you worry about?
29. What's your favorite thing about your bedroom?
30. What's something you'd like to change about your bedroom?
31. What's something you're saving up money for?
32. What's your favorite sport?
33. Why is it your favorite?
34. What do you want to be when you grow up?
35. What's your favorite animal?
36. What's your favorite food?
37. What's your favorite thing to do with your friends?
38. What's your favorite thing about summer?
39. What's your favorite thing about spring?
40. What's your favorite thing about fall?
41. What's your favorite thing about winter?
42. What's something you haven't tried, but want to?
43. What's something kind you did for someone else today?
44. What's something kind someone else did for you today?
45. What was a time you needed help with something?
46. What was a time you helped someone else with something?
47. What's something that you don't think is fair?
48. What's something you admire about me?
49. What's something you wish I did differently?
50. If you could change one thing about yourself, what would it be?
51. What's something you're proud of accomplishing this year?
52. What's something you've learned from me?
53. What's something you wish you knew more about?
54. What's your favorite thing about our house?
55. What's something you would change about our house?
56. If you could be any fictional character, who would you be?
57. What's your favorite game to play with me?
58. What's one thing that would make the world a better place?
59. What's something you wish I knew about you?
60. What's something that makes you feel safe and secure?
61. What's something that makes you feel afraid?
62. If you could live anywhere in the world, where would it be?
63. What's your favorite holiday and why?
64. What's your favorite thing about our community?
65. What's one thing you would change about our community?
66. What's a talent you have that you'd like to explore more?
67. What does "truth" mean to you?
68. What does "kindness" mean to you?
69. What does "courage" mean to you?
70. What does "integrity" mean to you?
71. What does "patience" mean to you?
72. What does "strength" mean to you?
73. What does "independence" mean to you?
74. What's your favorite story? Why?
75. What's something you're grateful for?
76. What does "responsibility" mean to you?
77. What does "reliability" mean to you?
78. If you could have any animal as a pet, what would it be? Why?
79. What's your favorite type of music?
80. What's your favorite school subject?
81. What's your favorite thing to do when you're by yourself?
82. Is there anything you'd like to start collecting? Why?
83. What's your favorite mythical animal?
84. If you could have any superpower, what would it be?
85. What's something interesting you've learned recently?
86. What's your favorite thing about nature and the outdoors?
87. If you could be any animal for a day, what would you be? Why?
88. What's your favorite part of your morning routine?
89. What's your favorite way to express your creativity?
90. If you could invent a new holiday, what would it be and why?
91. What's a funny joke you've heard recently?
92. If you could learn a foreign language, which would you learn?
93. What's your favorite type of car?
94. Who is a relative of ours that you admire?
95. If you could invent a gadget to make life easier, what would it be?
96. If you could time travel, where would you go?
97. What's your favorite way to relax?
98. What's something that surprised you recently?
99. What is your perfect day?
100. What's something you wish you knew about our family history?
101. What's something you admire about your sibling (or a friend)?
If you made it this far, like and share so more people see the list, and thank you as always for reading
Every piece of advice I have for getting "beach body ready" by summertime:
1. Go alcohol-free from now on. You'll never get the body you're after with consistent alcohol consumption
@ScottAdamsSays It depends on what’s in the convoy and where your ambush location is (your kill box). As a convoy commander in Iraq, losing my lead vehicle and escape route to the front was my biggest concern along with areas with tight turns.