ShadowStock

There are No Bad Assets, just Bad Prices:

Exploiting Market Anomalies with Neglected Data

[Ben Carlson @awealthofcs]

The average bear market since 1945:

-32.9% drawdown

12 months to go from peak-to-trough

21 months from the bottom to get back to new highs

13 bears in that time would be one every 6 years (on average)

https://t.co/8havAmFlTj

[Tobias Carlisle @Greenbackd]

This week’s value investing news:

Legendary Deep Value Investor Marty Whitman on Investing Safe & Cheap (Classic) (WT)

Cheap stocks aren't the reason value is winning (LM)

Deep Value Investing: How Stock Buybacks Create Shareholder Returns (AM)

[Excess Returns @excessreturnpod]

"Look at your portfolio as little as possible."

"The downs hurt me more than the ups made me feel good."

Cliff Asness on the one lesson he would teach the average investor.

[Jason Zweig @jasonzweigwsj]

My latest column for @WSJ:

Value investing ain't what it used to be.

https://t.co/4JTNeBgevm

[ShadowStock @ExpectedValues]

@wsengy1 @WalksWallstreet “Nepo baby”, WTF is wrong with you! You know nothing about him and his path to success and failure.

I can tell you for certain. You couldn’t be more wrong about him.

[Michael Burry Stock Tracker ♟ @burrytracker]

Breaking: Renaissance Technologies just filed its Q3 2026 13F

They sold 99.7% of their Nvidia $NVDA, weeks before the Jensen Huang scandal

Here’s everything you need to know about its recent 13F

Top 10 positions:

1. Micron $MU: $1.62B
2. Advanced Micro Devices $AMD: $1.21B
3. United Therapeutics $UTHR: $908M
4. Intel $INTC: $835M
5. Alphabet $GOOGL: $828M
6. UnitedHealth $UNH: $817M
7. Exelixis $EXEL: $747M
8. VeriSign $VRSN: $649M
9. SpaceX $SPCX: $621M
10. Corcept Therapeutics $CORT: $559M

New positions:

• SpaceX $SPCX: $621M
• Bank of America $BAC: $351M
• Goldman Sachs $GS: $245M
• VanEck Semiconductor ETF $SMH: $186M
• Booking Holdings $BKNG: $183M

Biggest adds:

• SanDisk $SNDK: +5,451% shares
• Micron $MU: +619% shares
• UnitedHealth $UNH: +507% shares
• Advanced Micro Devices $AMD: +140% shares

Biggest trims:

• Nvidia $NVDA: -99.7% shares, was $1.42B
• Meta $META: -99.9% shares, was $1.14B
• Apple $AAPL: -99.8% shares, was $459M
• Amazon $AMZN: -99.5% shares, was $546M
• Palantir $PLTR: -71% shares, was $883M

Full exits:

• Blackstone $BX: was $185M
• S&P 500 ETF $SPY: was $164M
• Marvell $MRVL: was $151M
• Danaher $DHR: was $145M

Summary: Renaissance dumped almost all of its Nvidia, Meta, Apple and Amazon and moved the money into memory chips, AMD and SpaceX

[Tobias Carlisle @Greenbackd]

"if compute never gets overbuilt it will be the first commodity in the history of the world to not have done so." Aye.

[George Noble @gnoble79]

Watch this. No words.
$NVDA will completely implode in the coming months.

[Tobias Carlisle @Greenbackd]

"Adjusted for the size of the housing stock, demand is in its biggest depression ever. (worse than post-2008)"

[Sytam @by_Sytam]

Steve Eisman literally explained why Anthropic's IPO story has a hole in it.

> His answer: "there's stuff in the Anthropic prospectus that is extremely negative."

" The Big Short investor sat on CNBC two weeks ago, after most people had read the filing and called it all good news. "

- The filing stops at the second quarter. No third quarter numbers. (01:34)

- He says there is enough in it to see them anyway. And his read is blunt: revenue growth "slowed dramatically." (02:45)

- His numbers: sequential growth of 147% in Q2. Then 45% in Q3. (04:41)

- Then the part that bothers him more. Divide revenue by compute spending. In Q2 the ratio was 2.08. In Q3 it fell to 1.7. Each dollar of compute started bringing back less. (05:57)

> His name for the cause is "the end of token maxing."

He is honest about the gap. The Q3 figures came from people outside the filing. "I can't confirm that it's 100% true," he says, though he calls them pretty reliable.

In January at Davos, Dario Amodei showed his own curve, zero to ten billion dollars in three years, and admitted it would be crazy if it kept going.

Eisman thinks the crazy part is already over.

The clip runs six minutes on CNBC's YouTube. Almost nobody stays for the efficiency ratio.

[Rudy Havenstein, Senior Markets Commentator. @RudyHavenstein]

Marc Cohodes on Nvidia's Jensen Huang $NVDA
https://t.co/GSaRSeqhie

[Jason Zweig @jasonzweigwsj]

a snippet from THE DEVIL'S FINANCIAL DICTIONARY

https://t.co/m7zyxAoPMM

[Kuppy @hkuppy]

This was a great pod. You all should listen👇👇

[Kevin Wang @WangFinance]

Dude just got profiled by the WSJ. Quite a story.

Christian Lamarco, 31. Went to a small Christian college in Pennsylvania with no Wall Street recruiting pipeline.

Once drove to Carnegie Mellon to compete against Ivy Leaguers in a stock-picking contest. Finished second. Won $100.

Cold-emailed his research to hedge funds, landed a job at a Chicago long-short fund, then quit in 2019 with just a few months of savings to start Culper Research.

Moved to NYC, working out of a Brooklyn apartment. His team? Just two analysts.

They started investigating Nvidia last year, then gave up. They doubted three guys could uncover something Wall Street had missed about the world's most valuable company.

Picked it back up in March.

Interviewed former Nvidia employees, dug through corporate filings in Singapore and Malaysia, examined scrubbed code, even studied YouTube footage outside a Taiwanese noodle shop.

May 13: After a sleepless night, a bagel and a cigarette, he published a 40-page short report flagging Nvidia’s China exposure and Jensen Huang’s relationship with Alice Huang.

The next day, Nvidia hit an all-time high.

Nobody cared.

Six months later, the story blew up…

[Steve Eisman @realsteveeisman]

Per the Wall Street Journal, its costs rose $3 billion in a quarter while revenue grew $1 billion. Two senior executives have also left as an IPO reportedly gets closer. Steve Eisman, who bet against the housing market before 2008, isn't predicting OpenAI fails. He says it's not too early to think about it.

Watch the full video for the risks he's watching. Link in bio.

[Tobias Carlisle @Greenbackd]

Nah, this is a common occurrence in manias.

[Jason Zweig @jasonzweigwsj]

My latest @WSJ newsletter:

I'm always wrong about gold. You probably are, too. Plus, why do we say we "redeem" a fund?
https://t.co/8xkmxnUnEn

[Excess Returns @excessreturnpod]

Mike Green thinks passive investing helps explain why cheap stocks stay cheap.

"The aggregate marginal flow is against it."

His argument: value investors buy based on price versus worth. Passive funds allocate by market value.

[Michael Mauboussin @mjmauboussin]

Launching in 2 weeks!