For the first time since 2022, Putin's own Finance Ministry and central bank have told him the war is unaffordable. ๐
@business reports it today as the most serious internal split in Moscow since the invasion began. And the numbers say why.
Defence and security eat about 40% of the federal budget. The deficit in the first four months of 2026 hit roughly 5.9 trillion rubles, the largest of the war, as oil and gas revenue fell about 45% year on year, squeezed by low prices and Ukrainian strikes idling export capacity.
This is not collapse. Russia can still tax, borrow and print. But the cost curve has turned, and the men who count the money are the ones now saying no.
The cheapest Western lever left is the one already working: keep the pressure on the oil.
๐ซ๐ท๐ฌ๐ท๐บ๐ฆ Iโll just leave this here: the French ambassador to Sweden, who was formerly second in command at the French Defence Procurement Agency of the Ministry of Armed Forces (@DGA), may have revealed that Ukraine will receive Mirage 2000-5s from Greece.