Cuadros

Full-time Trader | I analyze. 📈 High Timeframe Charts | $SOL & $ETH Ecosystems.

[Arkham @arkham]

Fidelity bought more ETH this week so far than any week in the past 2 months.

[ryandcrypto @ryandcrypto]

no other information given

you buying this chart?

[Param @Param_eth]

How a hacker stole $1.34M from Raydium:

- finds a bug inside Raydium's old 2021 code

- targets 5 forgotten liquidity pools that were no longer being used.

- generates fake ownership receipts to trick the system.

- convinces the old program/code that he has liquidity that he never deposited.

- withdraws real funds from the pools

walks away with:

> 150,177 $RAY
> 5,603 $SOL
> 893,700 $USDC

steals ~$1.34 million in total

- bridges the funds from Solana to Ethereum

- starts sending hundreds of ETH into Tornado Cash to hide the trail

- Raydium confirms the exploit publicly

- current users are not affected

- Current Raydium pools are safe.

[Leo @Leooweb3]

The next 3-6 months will change your life.

Altcoins will go parabolic.

[Ansem 🐂🀄️ @blknoiz06]

gold trading like ppl want dollars instead

[CoinMarketCap @CoinMarketCap]

LATEST: 📊 Bitwise says Bitcoin may be acting as a "canary in the coal mine," flashing an early warning signal for a broader market correction.

[Ted @TedPillows]

A whale just opened a $39,000,000 $ETH short with 20x leverage.

He is $170 away from liquidation.

[Cuadros @eyecanseethefut]

@DaoMariowhales That's interesting

[MARIO DAO (🍄,🧠) @DaoMariowhales]

most polymarket traders avoid this market because it locks your money for 6 months for a measly 20-30%

we're looking at it for the opposite reason

at 12¢ this isn't a 30% trade. it's a 300% one

---

the market: will the US get its hands on iran's enriched uranium by the deadline

priced at 12¢ for june, 27¢ for december

we think fair value is 50-60%

here's why the gap exists and why almost nobody sees it

---

there are 7 ways this resolves. we mapped every one:

iran hands it over willingly → almost zero. they've spent weeks signaling they'll stall forever

the US cuts a deal without surrender → 5%. israel will never accept a compromise on this. ever

iran defends it from a commando raid → 10%. the "eagle claw 2" scenario. that downed F-15 story is murkier than the official line, but the US still owns the airspace

uranium goes to a third country → 10%. israel doesn't do compromise on nuclear

handed over but past the deadline → real risk on june, almost irrelevant for december

the favorite, at the top of our stack: the military option

---

why force is the base case:

there is no deal to be made right now. that forces the coalition out of the diplomatic deadlock the only way left

iran has 60% enriched uranium that can be pushed to weapons-grade in days. israel will not let that stand at 100% and they've got the receipts: operation opera, operation orchard, last year's strike, the assassinated scientists

the begin doctrine never died. and the man it's named after founded the same party netanyahu runs today

---

here's what makes this market beautiful:

both the dove and the hawk outcomes pay us

if iran somehow gets bent into surrendering uranium → we win
if trump announces they're handing over even a fraction → we win
if the war reignites → price rips 50-100% and we cut risk to zero or ride it

the only enemy is time and a compromise israel would never accept

but our enemies in this market are israel's enemies too

and that's a state with a very long history of solving its problems by any means necessary

https://t.co/ulrB6D9Ypq

[Cuadros @eyecanseethefut]

@DaoMariowhales Wow, that's interesting news

[MARIO DAO (🍄,🧠) @DaoMariowhales]

A Case of Huge Profits Based Solely on Musk's Tweets

This Polymarket account turned $440 into $700,000 in a single market: “How many tweets will Elon post?”

440,480 YES shares at $0.001 each.
The market closed at $1.00.
ROI: 40,302%.

Profile: https://t.co/htjoSubT74

This isn’t a random lottery ticket. It’s a system.

1. The Elon tweet market has a structural flaw

Polymarket divides each week into 20+ outcome ranges (100–119, 220–239, … 500+).

2. He buys the cheapest tails

At $0.001 per share, $440 can buy 440,000 shares.

If the market moves into a tail scenario—a disease outbreak, a news cycle, a court case, or Elon doing something strange again—one of these tickets pays off, and the payout is 400–1,000x.

3. The math here is asymmetric

You don’t need to be right very often
You just need to hit once per cycle to cover the dozens of $400 tickets that will expire worth nothing.

Buy 10 tails bets at $440 each → $4,400 risk.
One hits → $177,000 payout.

Bottom line: roughly ~$172,000 net for a successful cycle

[MARIO DAO (🍄,🧠) @DaoMariowhales]

the trade volume is what makes it scary
$17,102,326 traded
11,243 predictions
all on 5-minute bitcoin "up or down" markets
that's ~370 trades per day. one every 4 minutes around the clock
no human does this. this is a bot

current open positions tell the story
down 52.1¢ → 99.6¢ = +91% in hours
down 55.9¢ → 100¢ = +78%
down 75.3¢ → 83.5¢ = +10%
it's not predicting bitcoin direction. it's catching mispriced binary windows when retail panics at 5-minute resolution
entry zone 50-60¢. exit at 99¢. repeat 370 times per day

two months ago distinct-baguette joined. $400K+
this week 0xb55fa1 enters the top 5. $204K
these aren't separate traders. these are forks of the same algorithm running on different wallets
the meta is shifting. retail thinks polymarket is for "predicting elections"
the smart money is running 5-minute crypto arbitrage at scale

https://t.co/9C85qflBUu

i track these wallets the moment they appear on the leaderboard
drop the addresses + positions in our discord every morning
https://t.co/ojv1dCV9hz

[MARIO DAO (🍄,🧠) @DaoMariowhales]

25 $SOL and 10 accesses to our server giveaway

• Follow @DaoMariowhales
• Drop wallet addy
• Like + RT
• Leave screenshot confirming subscription in comments

Winner chosen in 48 hours

[MARIO DAO (🍄,🧠) @DaoMariowhales]

🍄Weekly trenches results🍄

$PH 153.6K ↠ 3.1M Δ 20x
$MILKERS 97.5K ↠ 1.8M Δ 18x
$ELUN 64.6K ↠ 1.1M Δ 17x
$BURNIE 450.1K ↠ 7.6M Δ 17x
$ARTEMISII 88.4K ↠ 1.1M Δ 12x
$RPU 167.5K ↠ 1.6M Δ 10x
$DRIPWARTS 43.3K ↠ 418.6K Δ 10x

More -> https://t.co/j4e25D1tDV

[Cuadros @eyecanseethefut]

@DaoMariowhales A great month. I'm curious to see what happens next.

[MARIO DAO (🍄,🧠) @DaoMariowhales]

🍄We're back with our favorite part of the past month and excited to share our wins with you

SOL Trenches:

$ZEN 181.8K ↠ 15.7M Δ 86x
$MINDVOID 65.6K ↠ 3.3M Δ 50x
$ABCDEFG 60.4K ↠ 2.5M Δ 42x
$CAPTCHA 187.0K ↠ 7.8M Δ 41x
$WHITEHOUSE 133.5K ↠ 4.8M Δ 36x
$MEI 168.9K ↠ 5.9M Δ 35x
#唐子兵法 159.9K ↠ 5.4M Δ 34x
$SMITH 39.6K ↠ 1.3M Δ 33x
$PEDGY 94.2K ↠ 2.7M Δ 28x
$NAKAMA 239.0K ↠ 6.8M Δ 28x

Polymarket:

1. IRAN - REGIME RISK SPIKING

Tensions around Iran escalated sharply following reported strikes involving United States and Israel.

Market reaction was immediate and aggressive:

• Polymarket odds of regime collapse surged within hours
• Volatility expanded rapidly as narratives accelerated across global markets

Key insight:
The market is no longer treating regime instability as a long-term tail risk - it is now pricing a real probability of structural breakdown within months.

2. OIL - PARABOLIC MOVE IN PLAY

Oil markets reacted instantly to Middle East escalation, with a clear supply shock narrative forming.

Core risk driver:

• Strait of Hormuz - ~20% of global oil supply flows through it

Additional pressure points:

• Strikes near UAE infrastructure (Dubai / Fujairah)
• Threats of full strait closure
• Early force majeure signals from Saudi & Kuwaiti flows

Price action:

• Brent / WTI: +7-10% in days
• Market pricing ~89% probability of $100+ oil

Scenario framework:

• $100 → near certainty
• $105 → high probability
• $110 → strong upside
• $120 → tail scenario

Example trades:

• $105 @ 82¢ → +22%
• $110 @ 62¢ → +61%

Takeaway:
This is a textbook geopolitical supply shock trade - momentum, narrative, and positioning are fully aligned.

3. SUCCESSION BET - POWER SHIFT INSIDE IRAN

Attention rapidly shifted toward leadership transition scenarios.

Mojtaba Khamenei emerged as the dominant successor narrative:

• Odds moved from 15% → 60% overnight

Trade example:

• $1,000 → ~$1,600
• Profit: +$600

Takeaway:
In unstable regimes, markets tend to converge quickly on a single dominant successor, creating high-confidence narrative trades.

4. PREDICTION MARKETS - EDGE & EXECUTION

Recent trades highlight the edge in fast-moving narrative markets:

• Michael B. Jordan - correctly predicted as Best Actor (Oscars 2026)

• Profit: +89.7%

• edgeX FDV strategy:

• $500M+ market → entry at £51
• $600M+ market → entry at £25
• Combined profit: $60,000+

• Geopolitical trades (ceasefire scenarios):

• March 31 → +$3,500
• April 15 → +$2,300
• April 30 → +$22,000

Macro driver:
Events linked to Donald Trump contributed to +15% portfolio gain in 3 days.

I’m still “practicing” with Polymarket recap formats, and many Polymarket events can take months to fully resolve. So think of this as a test version that will get more refined with time.

NFTs:

@cc0_mon (Supply: 9,999)
Mint Price - WL - FREE ; Public - 0.0025 ETH (~$5)
ATH floor price - 0.0063 ETH (~$13)
Top sale - 0.12 ETH (~$245)

@GlobeGenesis (Supply: 2,222)
Mint Price - WL - FREE ; Public - 1 ETH (~$2,000)
ATH floor price - 0.0059 ETH (~$12)
Top sale - 0.0589 ETH (~$121)

@PenguishETH (Supply: 1,444)
Mint Price - FREE
ATH floor price - 0.0702 ETH (~$146)
Top sale - 0.15 ETH (~$317)

@nekromancerss (Supply: 3,333)
Mint Price - FREE
ATH floor price - 0.0021 ETH (~$5)
Top sale - 0.03 ETH (~$64)

@tatsu_nyc (Supply: 200)
Mint Price - FREE
ATH floor price - 0.299 ETH (~$643)
Top sale - 1.1 ETH (~$2,380)

@cmai_agent (Supply: 1,669)
Mint Price - FREE
ATH floor price - 0.0079 ETH (~$17)
Top sale - 0.05 ETH (~$104)

Also, don’t sleep on the retrodrops & retro-chat threads on our server there’s always something to dig into over there.

I won't describe each project separately, I just want to remind you about this wonderful branch of our server.

If you need to find something related to a particular project, feel free to visit and take a look, because we have repeatedly received positive feedback from participants who found information about projects they were interested in.

I would also like to remind you to share information and your thoughts in the retrodrops thread.

Most of our wins you can check in ⁠our server

Join -> https://t.co/j4e25D1tDV

[naiive @naiivememe]

If Bitcoin doesn’t hit 100K by the end of this month, I’ll delete my account.

[Ash Crypto @AshCrypto]

BITCOIN JUST HIT $69,000 🚀

[Ash Crypto @AshCrypto]

Bitcoin reclaims $67,000 and ETH is back above $2,000 after Trump signals at ending the US-Iran War.

[OKX @okx]

The most important author in financial history never signed their name.