Pressure on tech stocks is still building, while capital continues rotating into industrials, healthcare, and consumer platforms with steadier cash flow.
The market is cutting exposure to names that depend heavily on long-dated expectations and increasing its focus on revenue, orders, and execution.
This is the kind of shakeout the AI sector has to go through as it moves into the commercial validation phase.
Shopify’s latest earnings are a clear example.
The company reported Q2 revenue of $3.58 billion, up 34% year over year. GMV reached $115.57 billion, up 32%, while free cash flow came in at $654 million, with a free cash flow margin of roughly 18%.
Management also expects Q3 revenue growth to remain in the low-30% range.
One data point stood out to me more than the rest: traffic and orders across Shopify stores grew by roughly three times year over year.
That suggests AI is already helping merchants drive more traffic and improve operating efficiency.
If we break the AI value chain into upstream, midstream, and downstream, the flow-through is becoming much clearer.
Upstream, companies like $NVDA, $MU, and $AVGO provide GPUs, HBM, and high-speed networking.
Midstream, $NBIS builds data centers and turns that hardware into usable, billable compute.
Downstream, companies like $SHOP, $PLTR, along with businesses in healthcare, finance, and robotics, turn that compute into orders, productivity, and cash flow.
Over the past few days, I have been talking about how this entire value chain fits together.
One of the biggest concerns around AI infrastructure has been whether downstream applications can generate enough revenue to absorb all the compute capacity being built after cloud providers bought massive amounts of GPUs.
Shopify is starting to give the market a positive answer.
That matters directly for $NBIS.
Nebius already lists Shopify on its website as a customer case for AI foundation model training.
In my view, the biggest long-term opportunity for NBIS comes from two areas:
Large-scale model training and long-duration compute contracts, and recurring enterprise inference demand.
That is why, in the next NBIS earnings report, I will be watching revenue, GPU utilization, and adjusted EBITDA closely.
My view has not changed.
Shopify is proving that downstream AI applications can generate real economic value.
The next step is for the market to reassess which midstream infrastructure companies can consistently capture that growth.
That is also why I remain constructive on Nebius over the long term.
Before earnings arrive, I will continue tracking the broader changes that could shape the company’s outlook.
Friday crushed $NBIS 15%. It’s up only about 0.8 % after an early pop. One green candle still isn’t a recovery.
My $167 average gives me room. With earnings close, I’m focused on revenue, ARR, capacity and funding.
I’m holding. Any add waits for Nebius to show me the numbers. 🤍
🌅 Woke up early and watched the sunrise.
Funny how markets work the same way.
Most people only notice trends after they're already visible.
#Life#Trading#Growth
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