اینکه ترامپ پلنبهپلن پیش میره یا نه، مهم نیست آنچه از اتاق کاخ سفید بیرون درز میکنه
نه کاملاً تمام حقیقت است و نه کاملاً دروغ.
راوی اتاق فکر رژیم نشیم
و گفتن ترامپ با قالیباف میبنده، بدون دیدن نظم جهانی و نقش اسراییل در معادلات خاورمیانه
و نیاز شدید ترامپ به پیروزی،
اشتباهی استراتژیک است
اما یک چیز روشن است: خطر شکست قبل از شکست.
یعنی ناامیدی
امید، امانت یک ملت است
سیاست ها و تاکتیک ها هر لحظه عوض میشن ، اما در صورت ترزیق ناامیدی به ملت،
دیگر امید به سختی برمیگرده
با پیشفرضها، با تحلیلهای غلط و نظریه های توطئه و شکست خیالی، نابودش نکنیم
🛜 #Iran's internet blackout has now entered its 11th week after 1680 hours largely cut off from the rest of the world. The censorship measure presents an extraordinary barrier to knowledge, information and communications for Iranians trying to go about their daily lives.
Your Soldiers in Iran Are Waiting
Dear Mr. Donald Trump,
The people of Iran are a priceless asset for any lasting change in the Middle East ; a human, cultural, and historical treasure that time and distrust are eroding.
This short analysis rests on three pillars: history, religion, and sociology.
Historical Pillar:
History shows how promises without action destroy trust. In 1991 (Gulf War), Iraqi Shiites rose up at the clear encouragement of President George H. W. Bush. But when America withdrew and offered no support, Saddam Hussein massacred them in a horrific slaughter (tens of thousands killed). That betrayal scarred the trust of Iraqi Shiites forever. They refused to help again until 2003 ; until they saw the fall of Baghdad with their own eyes.
The exact same pattern is repeating in Iran today.
Religious Pillar:
The Shiite school and its ideology are built on Mahdism and the final apocalyptic war. In this belief, the appearance of the Savior is tied to the ultimate battle against the forces of tyranny, and surrender is never an option.
Today, the oppressors and the regime’s forces hold ninety million Iranians hostage. In this doctrine, submission to them has no meaning; the oppressors must be eliminated so that the ground is prepared for justice.
This is exactly why the Iranian people are waiting for a clear, unmistakable sign of regime collapse , not empty words.
Sociological Pillar:
Iranian society is exhausted but awake. The 2021–2022 protests and especially the bloody waves of 2024–2025 proved that discontent has crossed every class and ethnic line. The Islamic Republic has spilled the blood of more than 40,000 Iranians in these years, yet women, youth, workers, and even traditional segments are loudly declaring: “This regime is finished.”
Still, deep distrust of foreign support has kept many at home, waiting. Time is eating away at this social capital every single day.
Mr. Trump,
You yourself promised to help them. You did not say “the regime must not have nuclear weapons.” You said: “You come to the streets, and I will help you.”
There is no more time to waste. If this window of distrust closes, you will not win either. Finish the job faster. Stop clutching the rotten ropes of the regime through negotiations and stalling tactics.
The people of Iran are your potential soldiers , on the condition that this time you restore their trust with decisive action and let them see their own Baghdad fall.
Do not miss this opportunity. They are waiting .
To our Arab neighbors: our region is at a fork in the road.
One path leaves the Islamic Republic in power and leads to further crimes against our people and yours.
The other helps Iranians reclaim Iran from this illegitimate regime and returns peace and stability to the region.
Javid Shah!
This region needs peace
and wise people like you.
The Islamic Republic must be
brought down as quickly as possible.
That is the only way to ensure real
security & stability in the Middle East!!
LETS FINISH THE JOB!
سقوط رژیمها با روایتهای ساده «دهروزه» که مراد ویسی عزیز قبل جنگ رمضان پیش بینی سقوط کرده بود؛ توضیح داده نمیشود؛ معادلات قدرت پیچیدهتر از منطق صفر و یکاند.
انقلابها عموماً یا انفجاریاند (سقوط سریع)، یا فرسایشی که در یک بازه چندماهه به نقطه گسست میرسند.
در سناریوی فعلی، ضربات امریکا و اسرائیل صرفاً ساختار را تضعیف کردهاند، نه نابود؛ این ساختار نیازمند «تراش، تعدیل و تغییر فرم» است تا به آستانه فروپاشی برسد.
نقطه تعیینکننده زمانی است که این تعدیل رخ دهد؛ جایی که هزینه سرکوب بالا میرود و نگاه جهانی به خیابان معطوف میشود.
و دیگر رژیم فعلی نخواهد توانست مثل قبل کشتار فجیع کند، آنروز هم مشروعیت ندارد و هم پول.
«میدانم همگی حتی برای یک روز دیرتر هم صبر ندارید، ولی انقلابمان هم مثل شانس مان
در دسته انقلاب های فرسایشی قرار میگیرد، نمیخواستم بنویسم ولی مجبورا خواستم برای مدتی آماده باشید»
آنجا و آن روز موعود دیگر معادله تغییر میکند:
خیابان از یک امکان، به یک ضرورت سرنگونی رژیم تبدیل میشود…
ذات اختلاف و انتقاد، نشان از بلوغ یک جامعه و پایه دموکراسی است، مشکل زمانی است، که بعضی افراد از درک زمانی عاجزند
یعنی به جای هم افزایی موجب تفرقه میشوند
و گرنه پخش صدایی یا انتقاد و تقاضای پاسخ چیز بدی نیست
و گرنه انتصاب از طرف «پهلوی» ، مسئولیت در پایین «تیم» را لغو نمیکند
در کل اعتماد رهبر، جای پاسخگویی عضو را نمیگیرد
و نافی مسولیت فردی و مصونیت مادام العمر نیست.
و باید در قبال عملکردش پاسخگو باشد
اگر تونستین اینجا را بخونید👇
It’s not misinformation.
If you were an opponent of the regime, NIAC never would have endorsed you.
You are the enemy. An enemy to America.
Are you working for the Iranian regime? @RepYassAnsari
Why are you, as an Iranian, trying to remove the Secretary of War while we are in the middle of war with Iran?
Are you a spy for the Iranian regime?
Yes or no.
100 days ago, on January 8th and 9th, millions of Iranians took to the streets knowing the price they might pay. More than 40,000 heroes paid that price for Iran's dignity, liberty, and freedom.
Young women tore off their headscarves in front of armed security forces. Students organized, marched, and faced plainclothes agents on campuses. Teachers, lawyers, and workers walked off their jobs. Shopkeepers shuttered their stores in solidarity. Millions of ordinary people did extraordinary things in city after city in an epic display of national unity.
The regime answered with bullets, mass arrests, and show trials and executions. Facing an inhuman evil, Iranians showed superhuman bravery. More than 40,000 gave their lives.
My compatriots kept going and their courage belongs to history. This is the final battle and they are preparing to win the war against the Islamic Republic. In this battle to reclaim our nation, I will not stop fighting until the day they are free.
We hope the world will be with us. Whether it is or not, our fight will continue and we will liberate Iran.