This week, the war in Ukraine will have lasted longer than the First World War.
Russia is reportedly losing troops faster than it can replace them. It is devoting roughly 40% of public spending to the war effort while mortgaging its demographic and economic future.
What began as an attempt to subjugate an independent nation in pursuit of the imperial fantasies of a few paranoid men increasingly threatens Russia's own future more than Ukraine's.
Above all, this war has shattered one of the great illusions of the post-Cold War era: that Russia was a formidable conventional military power. A country whose economy depends overwhelmingly on the export of raw materials has spent years grinding forward at enormous human and financial cost. Corruption, patronage and the hollowing-out of institutions have proven as damaging as any external sanction.
History is full of states destroyed by strategic overreach: the Soviet Union, the Ottoman Empire, Nazi Germany and Saddam Hussein's Iraq. Nations are rarely undone by the enemies they make. More often, they are undone by the choices dictators make themselves.
The greatest threat to Russia was never Ukraine, NATO, the United States or anybody else for that matter. It was, and remains, the Kremlin system itself.
Perhaps it is fitting that this happened on the same day as the SpaceX IPO, but my model just sent an “emergency sell” signal. I’m not as bearish as my model, but I will still be increasing hedges Monday morning.
Clients can read the whole note here:
https://t.co/396t84ASUg
@GerontologyMike This is Genesis, told by "God" to Moses who wrote it down & copied exactly in the Torah for millennia. Not a human myth. More likely a story for the humans they were following, by "AI beings" given that task. Can't imagine a human at that time (~6K yr ago) knowing 120 yr lifespan
🔎Are US health insurers defrauding tax payers?
They are gaming the healthcare system, extracting trillions of Dollars from tax payers.
(entirely free to read)
$UNH $HUM $CVS $ELV $CNC
https://t.co/1iigulwqfv
This isn’t making enough news.
Cities and states are suing oil companies, alleging they knew about climate dangers and hid them. Those cases go before federal judges.
Meanwhile, a center at George Mason University’s Scalia School of Law has been hosting expense-paid seminars for those same federal judges.
Who funds the center?
ExxonMobil, the Charles Koch Foundation, and others connected to the very companies being sued.
The center even told a funder its goal was giving judges “skepticism” about the science behind the lawsuits they hear.
Who spoke at these closed-door seminars? Chris Wright, then a fracking CEO, now Trump’s Energy Secretary, sharing his skepticism about climate change. His own company was suing the government over climate rules at the time.
So, imagine you’re a referee in a championship game. Before the game, one of the teams pays for you to attend a fancy retreat where their coach explains why the other team’s strategy is illegitimate. Would anyone trust your calls?
That’s essentially what’s happening here.
https://t.co/C0GZQd54Iz
Sen. Schumer after Republicans pass $140,000,000,000 for ICE funding instead of affordability measures:
"Republicans showed the American people where they stand. Not for families struggling with the high cost of childcare, groceries, gasoline, electricity. But for pumping $140 billion toward rogue agencies."
Why would Todd Blanche (in private law practice at the time) be copied in on confidential Epstein emails right after Epstein arrested in 2019? Now we know why Trump hired him as private attorney.
Trump called the Epstein files a hoax.
Behind closed doors, his White House was in full panic mode, holding Situation Room meetings over what could come out and how to contain the damage.
JD Vance was in the room.
Bring in Blanche. Bring in Vance.
Under oath. On camera.
@craigunger I am sure there were choice words on their mental and psychological assessments of Der Trump as well. Also a taboo subject: supposedly defended by the incomprehensible TDS retort.