Guys, ada dokumen rahasia Amerika yang bocor dan isinya bikin gue geleng-geleng.
Amerika sedang mengupayakan akses penerbangan militer permanen melewati wilayah udara Indonesia.
Dan Prabowo disebut sudah menyetujuinya.
Kronologinya:
Februari 2026 Prabowo ke Washington untuk hadir di Board of Peace.
Dalam pertemuan bilateral dengan Trump menurut dokumen rahasia AS yang bocor ini Prabowo menyetujui proposal pemberian akses overflight blanket untuk pesawat militer Amerika melewati ruang udara Indonesia.
26 Februari Departemen Pertahanan AS mengirimkan dokumen resmi berjudul "Operationalizing U.S. Overflight" ke Kementerian Pertahanan Indonesia.
13 April hari ini Menhan Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin dijadwalkan ke Washington untuk menandatangani perjanjian ini dengan Menhan AS Pete Hegseth.
Isi perjanjiannya:
Bukan sistem izin kasus per kasus.
Tapi sistem notifikasi sekali diaktifkan, pesawat militer Amerika bisa langsung melintas hanya dengan pemberitahuan.
Tidak perlu izin setiap kali.
Ada hotline langsung antara US Pacific Air Forces dan pusat operasi udara Indonesia.
Intinya:
Amerika bisa gerakkan pesawat militernya melewati Indonesia kapanpun dibutuhkan untuk operasi darurat, respons krisis, atau latihan militer bersama.
Kenapa ini masalah besar:
Indonesia selama ini dikenal sebagai negara non-blok.
Bebas aktif.
Tidak berpihak pada kekuatan militer manapun.
Perjanjian seperti ini kalau benar secara de facto menempatkan Indonesia dalam orbit militer Amerika. Bukan sebagai sekutu resmi.
Tapi dengan konsekuensi yang hampir sama.
Ruang udara Indonesia itu strategis luar biasa. Terletak di antara Samudra Pasifik dan Samudra Hindia.
Jalur laut dan udara paling penting di kawasan. Kalau Amerika punya akses permanen di sana mereka bisa proyeksikan kekuatan militer ke seluruh Indo-Pasifik dengan jauh lebih mudah.
Dan China tahu itu.
Dan China pasti tidak akan diam.
Yang paling ironis:
Prabowo selama ini dikenal sebagai sosok yang paling keras soal kedaulatan.
Yang paling sering bicara soal tidak mau didikte asing. Yang menulis buku tentang betapa Indonesia harus berdiri di atas kaki sendiri.
Kalau dokumen ini benar maka perjanjian ini adalah kontradiksi paling telanjang dari semua narasi itu.
Bukan hanya membuka pintu untuk asing. Tapi membuka pintu lebar-lebar.
Dengan sistem yang sekali diaktifkan Amerika bisa masuk kapanpun tanpa izin tambahan.
Sampai berita ini ditulis tidak ada konfirmasi resmi dari Washington maupun Jakarta.
The Sunday Guardian sudah menghubungi semua pihak terkait tapi belum dapat respons.
Kalau ini benar Indonesia baru saja membuat keputusan geopolitik terbesar dalam beberapa dekade.
Tanpa debat publik.
Tanpa persetujuan DPR.
Tanpa transparansi apapun.
Dan yang menandatanganinya adalah orang yang selama ini paling keras berteriak soal kedaulatan.
Antek antek asing
Aksi Premanisme Kayak Gini Kadang Harus di Kasih Salam Olahraga
Jadi pemuda ini marah-marag karena mobilnya membahayakan nyawanya saat berkendara dijalan.
Karna Emosi dia kejar mobil itu dan menghancurkan spion kanan bahkan memecahkan kaca depan dengan batu.
Sayangnya supirnya terlalu baik, harusnya kalau udah membahayakan kayak gini apalagi di dalam ada keluarganya bisa kok langsung di hajar aja.
Guys ini yang paling bikin gw marah dan sedih sekaligus hari ini.
Beberapa jam yang lalu Trump bilang ke kapal kapal tanker minyak masuk aja ke Selat Hormuz. Abaikan ancaman Iran. Jangan takut.
Beberapa jam setelah itu sebuah tanker minyak dilaporkan diserang dan hancur oleh Iran di Teluk Persia tepat setelah melewati Selat Hormuz.
Baca itu lagi pelan pelan.
Trump kasih saran. Kapal nurut. Kapal kena serangan.
Ini bukan keputusan militer yang salah di ruang strategi yang tertutup. Ini pernyataan publik dari presiden Amerika yang didengar oleh kapten kapal, pemilik kapal, dan kru yang ada di dalamnya.
Dan sekarang ada orang yang mungkin mati karena saran itu.
Yang paling bikin gw geleng geleng adalah logika di balik pernyataan Trump itu.
Dia basically bilang Iran tidak akan berani. Bluff mereka. Masuk aja.
Tapi Iran udah buktikan berkali kali bahwa mereka tidak bluffing. Mereka serang bandara Dubai. Mereka tembus iron dome Israel. Mereka tutup Selat Hormuz. Mereka serang kapal Thailand yang bahkan tidak ada hubungannya dengan perang ini.
Dan Trump masih bilang abaikan ancaman mereka.
Ini bukan keberanian. Ini kelalaian.
Karena yang nanggung resikonya bukan Trump. Dia aman di Washington. Yang nanggung resikonya adalah kru kapal yang percaya sama ucapan presidennya dan memutuskan untuk masuk ke zona yang terbukti berbahaya.
Dan ini realita yang paling pahit dari semua kekacauan ini.
Pemimpin yang bicara besar dari kursi yang aman tidak pernah yang bayar harganya.
Yang bayar selalu orang biasa yang percaya sama kata katanya."
salah satu situs yang menarik untuk sesekali ditilik, adalah ini.
https://t.co/WHUQhAA1i0
hingga saat ini diperkirakan perang ini sudah menelan biaya
$1,897,469,025
atau setara 32.011.061.439.360 rupiah
atau setara 32 hari mbg
Pemerintah US Lagi kelabakan karena Kongres minta penjelasan knapa mereka nyerang Iran, padahal secara konstitusi semua perang harus disetujui kongres.
Kata menhan US "kita ga mulai perang" secara konteks utuh sepertinya merujuk pada puluhan tahun Iran 'mengganggu' kepentingan US di timteng.
Kata Menlu US "kita serang karena kalo ga, kita bakal diserang dulu dan bakal banyak korban"
Kedua pernyataan ini berseberangan dengan Pentagon yg menurut sumber "gaada tanda2 Iran bakal berani nyerang US dulu"
Di sisi lain, kita tahu semua 2 hari lalu siapa yg tiba2 nyerang Iran, siapa yg mindahin 30% kekuatan militernya ke Iran.
Ini menandakan adanya kepanikan eksekutif US karena melihat rendahnya dukungan publik, dunia, sekutu, dan bahkan kongres di serangan ini.
Kita bisa liat di awal serangan, Presiden Trump bilang kalo serangan ini untuk mengganti rezim. Tapi sekarang narasi berubah! Menhan bilang "kita ga ada maksud ganti rezim!"
Kemudian Trump menyampaikan bahwa Iran ingin negosiasi dan US mau membuka diskusi. Padahal pihak Iran bilang TIDAK AKAN NEGOSIASI DENGAN US. Ini adalah tanda paling utama bahwa ada kepanikan di US karena model venezuela ternyata ngga berhasil di Iran. Tapi US gamau bilang "oke, ayo diskusi" dulu karena itu artinya KALAH.
Kepanikan ini menguatkan bukti bahwa serangan kemarin sebenernya bukan kemauan US, tapi terpaksa masuk kancah perang karena tekanan dari Israel. Inilah yg di highligh Rep @JoaquinCastrotx.
Jika memang ini yg terjadi, jika memang benar2 tidak ada tanda2 Iran nyerang, maka Presiden Trump dapat dianggap melanggar konstitusi dan bisa berujung pemakzulan (lagi).
Secara politik, Demokrat bisa ambil 'keuntungan' dengan mulai memperkenalkan sosok anti-perang, pro ekonomi dan kedamaian untuk diajukan sebagai capres selanjutnya.
Dan gw yakin, ada kemungkinan besar pemerintahan selanjutnya akan dipegang Demokrat.
I am a diplomatic aide in the Sultanate of Oman's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
My job is logistics. When two countries that cannot speak to each other need to speak to each other, I book the rooms. I prepare the briefing materials. I make sure the water glasses are the right distance apart. You would be surprised how much of diplomacy is water glasses. Too close and it feels informal. Too far and it feels like a tribunal. I have a chart.
We had a very good month.
Since January, Oman has been mediating indirect talks between the United States and Iran on Iran's nuclear program. The talks were held in Muscat and in Geneva. The Americans would sit in one room. The Iranians would sit in another room. I would walk between them. My Fitbit says I averaged fourteen thousand steps on negotiation days. The hallway between the two rooms at the Royal Opera House conference center is forty-seven meters. I walked it two hundred and twelve times in February. This is good for my cardiovascular health. It was less good for my knees. Both are in the service of peace.
By mid-February, we had something.
Iran agreed to zero stockpiling of enriched uranium. Not reduced stockpiling. Zero. They agreed to down-blend existing stockpiles to the lowest possible level. They agreed to convert them into irreversible fuel. They agreed to full IAEA verification with potential US inspector access. They agreed, in the Foreign Minister's phrase, to "never, ever" possess nuclear material for a bomb. I have worked in diplomacy for seven years. I have never seen a country agree to this many things this quickly. I made a spreadsheet of the concessions. It had fourteen rows. I color-coded it. Green for confirmed. Yellow for pending. By February 21 the spreadsheet was entirely green. I printed it. It is on my desk in Muscat. It is still green.
That phrase took eleven days. "Never, ever." The Iranians initially offered "not seek to." The Americans wanted "will not under any circumstances." We landed on "never, ever" at 2:14 AM on a Tuesday in Muscat. I typed the final version myself. I used Times New Roman because Geneva prefers it. The document was fourteen pages. I was proud of every comma.
Here is what they said, in the order they said it.
February 24: "We have a once-in-a-generation opportunity." — The Foreign Minister, private briefing to Gulf Cooperation Council ambassadors. I prepared the slide deck. Slide 14 was the implementation timeline. Slide 15 was the signing ceremony logistics. I had reserved the Palais des Nations in Geneva, Room XX. It seats four hundred. We discussed pen brands for the signing. The Iranians preferred Montblanc. The Americans had no preference. I ordered twelve Montblanc Meisterstucks at six hundred and thirty dollars each. They arrive on Tuesday.
February 27, 8:30 AM EST: "The deal is within our reach." — The Foreign Minister, CBS Face the Nation. He sat across from Margaret Brennan. He said broad political terms could be agreed "tomorrow" with ninety days for technical implementation in Vienna. He said, and I wrote this line for the briefing card he carried in his breast pocket: "If we just allow diplomacy the space it needs." He praised the American envoys by name. Steve Witkoff. Jared Kushner. He said both had been constructive.
I watched from the Four Seasons Georgetown. The minibar had cashews. I ate the cashews. They were nineteen dollars. The most expensive cashew I have ever eaten. But it was a good morning and we were within our reach.
February 27, 2:00 PM EST: Meeting with Vice President Vance, Washington. The Foreign Minister presented our progress. Zero stockpiling. Full verification. Irreversible conversion. "Never, ever." The Vice President used the word "encouraging." His aide took notes on an iPad. The aide did not make eye contact for the last nine minutes of the meeting. I noticed this. Noticing things is the only part of my job that is not water glasses.
February 27, 4:00 PM EST: "Not happy with the pace." — President Trump, to reporters.
Not happy with the pace.
We had achieved zero stockpiling. Full IAEA verification. Irreversible fuel conversion. Inspector access. And the phrase "never, ever," which took eleven days and cost me two hundred and twelve trips down a forty-seven-meter hallway.
Every American president since Carter has failed to get Iran to agree to this. Forty-five years.
Not happy with the pace.
February 27, 9:47 PM EST: The Foreign Minister's flight departs Dulles for Muscat. I am in the seat behind him. He is reviewing Slide 14 on his laptop. The implementation timeline. Vienna technical sessions. The signing ceremony. The pens.
I fall asleep over the Atlantic. I dream about water glasses.
February 28, 6:00 AM GST: I wake up to push notifications.
February 28: "The United States has begun major combat operations in Iran." — President Trump.
Operation Epic Fury. Coordinated airstrikes. The United States and Israel. Tehran. Isfahan. Qom. Karaj. Kermanshah. Nuclear facilities. IRGC bases. Sites near the Supreme Leader's office. Israel called their half Operation Roaring Lion. Someone in both governments spent time choosing these names. Epic Fury. Roaring Lion. I spent eleven days on "never, ever." They spent it on branding. The President said Iran had "rejected American calls to halt its nuclear weapons production."
Rejected.
Iran had agreed to zero stockpiling. Iran had agreed to full verification. Iran had agreed to "never, ever." Iran had agreed to everything in a fourteen-page document that I typed in Times New Roman.
The President said they rejected it.
I do not know which document the President was reading. I know which one I typed.
February 28, 18:45 UTC: Iran internet connectivity: four percent. — NetBlocks, confirmed by Cloudflare. Ninety-six percent of a country went dark. You cannot negotiate with a country at four percent connectivity. You cannot negotiate with a country that is being struck. You cannot negotiate. This is not a political opinion. This is a logistics assessment.
February 28: The governor of Minab reported forty girls killed at an elementary school.
I do not have logistics for that. There is no slide for that. The water glass chart does not cover that.
February 28: Lockheed Martin: up. Northrop Grumman: up. RTX: up. Dow futures: down six hundred and twenty-two points. Gold: five thousand two hundred and ninety-six dollars. An analyst at AInvest published a note titled "Iran Strikes: Tactical Plays." The note recommended positions in oil, defense stocks, and gold.
The most expensive cashew I have ever eaten was nineteen dollars. The most expensive pen I have ever ordered was six hundred and thirty dollars. The math suggests I have been working in the wrong industry. Defense stocks do not require water glasses. Defense stocks do not require eleven days. Defense stocks require one morning.
February 28: Israel closed its airspace and its schools. Iran launched retaliatory missiles toward US bases in the Gulf. The Supreme Leader promised a "crushing response." Israel's defense minister declared a permanent state of emergency. Everyone is using words I recognize in an order I do not. I recognize "permanent." I recognize "emergency." I do not recognize them next to each other. In diplomacy, nothing is permanent and everything is an emergency. In war it is the reverse.
February 28: The Foreign Minister has not made a public statement.
The briefing card is still in his breast pocket. It still says "within our reach."
@tempodotco inilah gambaran politik bebas aktif, bebas mengabaikan segala urusan dan permasalahan dalam negri, aktif mengurusi urusan negara lain yg bukan urusannya
Sumatra dihabisi sawit,
Kalimantan batu bara,
Sulawesi-Maluku Utara nikel,
Papua dihabisi emas dan tebu.
Penghisapan di balik "NKRI Harga Mati".
Serial Ekspedisi Indonesia Baru
Episode 30 - https://t.co/bI6VJVy9aY
Di negara nasionalis-korup-religius seperti Indonesia, institusi agama hidup dalam simbiosis mutualisme dengan pejabat negara dan politikus.
Mereka sama-sama memakai doktrin dan kepatuhan untuk mendapatkan dukungan, tanpa pertanyaan. Apalagi sanggahan.
Sebuah kendaraan taktis polisi tampak melindas seseorang berseragam ojek online saat melintas di tengah kerumunan massa aksi di Jakarta, Kamis (28/08).
Catatan redaksi: Kalimat dalam video sudah diubah sesuai dengan fakta di lapangan.