Fabian Fach

Founder @ Black Flower Capital. Systematic tail-risk & crisis alpha. I hold the ceremonial right to say ‘signal over noise’ as if I invented filtering. 👇

[Fabian Fach @fabian_fach]

How to ragebait investors - Part II

[Fabian Fach @fabian_fach]

@leopoldasch will make it all back with one trade and a little more leverage

[Fabian Fach @fabian_fach]

How to ragebait investors

[Fabian Fach @fabian_fach]

Trending on @Google

[Fabian Fach @fabian_fach]

Second time in 145 years the S&P has traded above a CAPE of
41 - and unlike 2021, there's no low-rate airbag under it. The excess yield over bonds has collapsed to ~1%, bottom-decile, right next to 1929 and 1999.ä

[Fabian Fach @fabian_fach]

Working at HG in 2026:
Pro: @oliviarodrigo comes to your holiday party
Cons: the entire portfolio is software

[Fabian Fach @fabian_fach]

The math on tail risk mitigation is almost absurd, avoiding just the 10 worst years of the S&P 500 since 1924 would habe turned $235M into $4.3B on the same $10.000.
Compounding isn‘t won in the rallies - it‘s protected in the drawdowns.

#tailrisk #hedgefund #compunding

[Fabian Fach @fabian_fach]

https://t.co/zkKStUyTpP

[Fabian Fach @fabian_fach]

Hyperscalers will spend roughly $600bn on capex this year. That spending shows up as ~75% of US GDP growth in Q1. The GDP print validates the AI-will-save-the-economy narrative. The narrative justifies the next round of capex. The loop closes.

[Fabian Fach @fabian_fach]

Soros isn't shorting AI. His fund raised its Nvidia stake by 61% last quarter.
He's not confused. He wrote the manual: "When I see a bubble forming, I rush in to buy."
The theory behind that is reflexivity. Markets don't simply discover prices:

[Fabian Fach @fabian_fach]

belief moves capital, capital moves fundamentals, and improved fundamentals appear to prove the original belief. A feedback loop, not a discovery mechanism.
Now look at AI through that lens

[Fabian Fach @fabian_fach]

Shall i explain?

[Fabian Fach @fabian_fach]

Hedge Fund Start Ups need room to breathe, diversify their risk ( allocator concentration ( YES, a GP is also bearing risk!)) alignment with the LPs THEY CHOOSE. ⬅️ read that again.

[Fabian Fach @fabian_fach]

When a bank shuts down a profitable product - it’s not protecting you.

It’s protecting itself.

[Fabian Fach @fabian_fach]

ICBC - The bank just locked the door on its own customers.

140% margin requirements is effectively stopping retail traders from margin trading Gold and Silver.

[Fabian Fach @fabian_fach]

- Dollar is stronger than expected
- Fed stayed hawkish
- Rising Treasury yields killing cases for non yielding assets

[Fabian Fach @fabian_fach]

Im grateful the air is coming out because if it had continued I was going to have to reevaluate my entire understanding of the market. I had a wtf moment when it was at 220.

[Fabian Fach @fabian_fach]

A setup like this doesn’t gently mean-revert. It snaps. Correlations go to 1. The “diversification” everyone owns evaporates in one session, right when they need it.

[Fabian Fach @fabian_fach]

That’s not doom. It’s the entire reason uncorrelated, crisis-convex strategies exist. Everyone is long the keg. Some of us are positioned for the spark.

Fight me about it