Fabian Kretschmer

Korea Correspondent for @dpa, @taz, @diepressecom etc; Podcasts #BeijingBriefing ( #AsienCopyPaste (

[Hao HONG 洪灝, CFA @HAOHONG_CFA]

China retail sales growth slows further in August. This is the slowest retail growth in data history, excluding the COVID period and the 1984 and 1990 recessions.

It's concerning. Given that disposable income growth is still 4-5%, the propensity to consume must have been very low.

Weak consumption reflects the negative wealth effect, as property prices continue to fall and Chinese stocks haven't performed much this year.

Policy to boost asset prices and, in turn, consumption is much needed. Given that property is likely beyond immediate help, policy to boost stocks, as it did in late September 2024, will help the economy — a lot.

[Fabian Kretschmer @FabiKretschmer]

💯

[Michael Pettis @michaelxpettis]

1/3
Journalists who cover China must dread monthly data releases because they have to come up with new and interesting ways to say exactly the same thing: the supply side of the economy continues to do well while the demand side continues to weaken.
https://t.co/g1yREA5Xqn

[Fabian Kretschmer @FabiKretschmer]

@karasu_ga_warau Thanks for the reply and the link!

[Fabian Kretschmer @FabiKretschmer]

@freeandpuresoul @karasu_ga_warau Thanks!

[Liqian Ren @liqian_ren]

Three weeks later, Oct 6th, three of 8 plotted with Deng/Ye the military faction to jail the rest five in this picture, including Mao’s wife who purposely arranged to have this photo taken to extend her power, to no vail.

Hand to hand holding only lasts 3 weeks in politics.

[Tong Bingxue 仝冰雪 @tongbingxue]

Today , Sept. 9th, in 1976
Chairman Mao Zedong, died in Beijing at the age of 82.

Eight figures from Mao's inner circle stood in a row, their fingers interlocked.

From left: Zhang Chunqiao 张春桥、Wang Hongwen王洪文、Jiangqing江青、Hua Guofeng华国锋、Mao Yuanxin毛远新、Yao Wenyuan姚文元、Chen Xilian陈锡联和Wang Dongxing汪东兴。

Photo taken on the evening of Sept. 10, by Du Xiuxian杜修贤.

[Fabian Kretschmer @FabiKretschmer]

@BDHerzinger I was in the room and saw the scene unfold. To think that this was staged is just absurd.

[Fabian Kretschmer @FabiKretschmer]

@SubinBKim Thanks!

[Fabian Kretschmer @FabiKretschmer]

@SubinBKim Is that anecdotal or was that mentioned in newspaper articles? Need to look that up. This whole “peaceful coexistence and shared prosperity” rhetoric reminded me strikingly of You-Know-Who

[Fabian Kretschmer @FabiKretschmer]

@SubinBKim Teodoro has quite a history of not mincing words and he has been a repeated guest of SDD. While Ahn Guy-back was very cautious not to offend or even mention China, he nevertheless shared a very friendly handshake and smile with Teodoro after the panel. Many mixed signals -

[Fabian Kretschmer @FabiKretschmer]

@SubinBKim I was in the room and was quite surprised by the spontaneous applause among the audience. “Finally someone says those things out aloud!” was probably what many were thinking.

[Fabian Kretschmer @FabiKretschmer]

@kenmoriyasu Do you see elements of both approaches in the EU’s strategy, or is it closer to Tokyo’s position?

[Sven Hansen @SHansenBerlin]

Propaganda statt Aufklärung: In #Nepal können Medien frei berichten. Das von #China kontrollierte #Tibet hingegen bleibt eine Blackbox, schreibt @FabiKretschmer in @tazgezwitscher
https://t.co/6xBUzzIcYE

[Michael Pettis @michaelxpettis]

Lots of people have already posted this, but I will too because Ezra Klein's interview of Brad Setser is very good.
https://t.co/v66ZJGjqdC

[Jielin Dong 董洁林 @D931931]

This podcast featuring Mr. Setser reflects that American policy experts on China have reached a new height in their understanding of the "China Shock," but it is still not enough. I would like to outline a few initial ideas:
1. The Nature of the Chinese Government: The core motivation behind their decision-making is to maximize and preserve the long-term interests of the regime, rather than the interests of the Chinese people. Viewing their past and present behavior through this lens brings everything into clear focus.
2. Comprehensive Policy Toolkit: While everyone observes the Chinese government's powerful and continuous supply-side policies—including massive subsidies of various kinds—China actually employs demand-side policies as well. It is fair to say that the Chinese government's industrial policy toolkit is exceptionally comprehensive and nuanced, adapting flexibly to changing scenarios.
3. Execution Capability: Policies are the more visible component, but what is uniquely Chinese is their policy execution—a level of execution capability, coverage, and depth that is virtually unimaginable to Western scholars and governments.
4. Comparative Strategy and Response: All of China's industrial policies and their execution need to be viewed in comparison with the corresponding actions of the United States and Western nations. I do not believe the US or the West can change China in the short term (within 100 years), but they can alter their own industrial and trade strategies to respond to the China Shock.
I am considering writing a book to articulate these observations.

[Jielin Dong 董洁林 @D931931]

听完 @Brad_Setser 在 @ezraklein 播客上的对谈（https://t.co/qiOlAK0JXr ），能明显感觉到美国政策圈对“China Shock 2.0”的认知进阶到了新高度，但对其底层逻辑与执行颗粒度的理解依然存在盲区。分享几个核心观察：
1. 第一性原理：政权韧性 vs. 居民福利
中国决策层的终极目标函数是维系和最大化政权的长远安全与利益，而非传统经济学假设的“居民消费福利最大化”。从这个视角切入，很多看似低效或反常识的政策其实逻辑高度自洽。
2. 工具箱被低估：供给侧之外的“人造需求”
西方多聚焦于海量补贴等供给侧动作，却忽视了极其精密的 Demand-side 政策。准入门槛、场景创设与定向配给等手段，构成了极具场景适应性的全周期产业工具箱。
3. 最关键的黑盒：超强颗粒度的执行机器
政策文本只是表象，真正拉开差距的是贯穿中央到基层的动员与穿透力。这种覆盖深度、资源调动速度与执行烈度，往往超出西方政策制定者的经验范畴。
4. 告别幻觉：重构竞争策略
西方在短期（甚至百年内）都很难按照自己的意愿重塑中国。与其幻想外部施压改变对方体制，不如彻底重构自身的产业与贸易防御策略，进行对等博弈。
正打算就此主题写一本书，欢迎大家交流探讨。

[Fabian Kretschmer @FabiKretschmer]

Karl Marx would be turning in his grave.

[李老师不是你老师 @whyyoutouzhele]

北大教授：“灵活就业本身就是一种福利”

近日，北京大学国家发展研究院经济学教授张丹丹参加了财经访谈节目《聊一波》。

在被问道“2亿零工在做什么工作”、“有什么社会保障”等问题时，张丹丹说：灵活就业本身就是一种福利。

她说：“从劳动经济学角度讲，他们灵活，本身就是一种福利。”

张丹丹还说，朝九晚五、有五险一金的人，是牺牲了自由才换来的社保。而灵活就业人员就是要灵活，他们要的是自由度，能最大化实现自己对自己的管理，而自己管理自己，肯定不需要别人给他缴纳社保。

最后，张丹丹得出结论：“我们不能把灵活就业想成啥也没有，他有的是灵活。”

[Sari Arho Havrén @SariArhoHavren]

Colby’s soft talk vis-à-vis China starts to make sense.

Beijing has long theorised that America cannot fight, or even posture, in two theatres simultaneously. Pulling out the last aircraft carrier from Asia signals exactly this. One regional conflict against a mid-sized power has been enough to drain the Indo-Pacific of carrier presence entirely, and it will feed into PLA planning assumptions.