BREAKING: Nike stock, $NKE, crashes another -6% to its lowest level since September 2013 after posting weaker than expected earnings.
The stock is now down -82% from its record high, erasing -$230 billion in market cap.
kalahnya kecil.
Hukum alam di bursa adalah:
1. Shiny object yg banyak berita, terlihat sexy dan populer biasanya akan loss making buat investor pada waktunya
2. The real alpha biasanya datang dari perusahaan yang ga banyak buat berita, tetapi semakin profitable dan akhirnya jadi
kalo ada corp action A right issue mau caplok B dengan nilai blablabla, trus kita ga paham ujungnya, valuasinya, dan nilai dilusinya, doesnt matter beli A atau B, kalo beli sesuatu yg kita ga ngerti, pasti rugi. Paling aman jangan ikutan main.
Mainlah di arena yg kemungkinan
Foreign sell off dominated by $GOTO
Kenapa dipungut retail dalam kondisi masi overvalued?
Unless no more better options in IHSG, free float >70%, management modalnya 2 perak, jelas2 mis-aligned incentives.
Bond yield US 5.2%, FX relatif stabil
Bond yield ID 7.2%, FX volatile
Dua2nya dijamin negara..
Trs skrg kamu masi hold SAHAM narasi manis dengan PE >100x (yield 1%), punya utang, beli sahamnya pake margin dan marah2 sama asing krn sell off terus2an?
Kelalaian dalam capital allocation "investasi" ke saham $GOTO oleh $TLKM dan $ASII akhirnya mulai berdampak ke pemegang saham...
Uang segitu besar yg lolosin pasti level CEO...
GA KOMPETEN!!!
The bull market will emerge when we least expected..
When most raised white flags
When noone talks about market anymore
In a random month where nobody discerns
Gradually yet suddenly
We ALL gonna miss the next great bull market
dan maintenancenya, akhirnya mau ga mau malah lebih besar maintenance capex yg dikeluarkan utk mempertahankan FCF.
Terutama di bisnis yg asetnya heavy on fixed assets (PPE)
hati2 utk perusahaan yg ngotot mau keliatan FCFnya tinggi, cara paling mudah terkadang adalah delaying maintenance capex, dan pasti FCF naik, bisa buyback/bayar div gede, tp "invoice" akan ttp datang on due date, saat mesin/sparepart/equipment mulai mahal biaya downtime
If we are 6ft tall, i am not going to cross 10ft deep river and risk ruining my life.
Unfortunately in this game, i can also drown myself in 3ft deep water…that is when I pay too much for perfection.
Simple principle, but never easy
If long term stellar performance stems from wide moat, and wide moat came from unique business model/condition, then investing is actually a game of logic, not numbers and spreadsheets