Faction Capital

I love finance and markets.

[Faction Capital @factioncapital]

ADP May jobs: +122K private payrolls, with hiring broad-based across 8/10 major sectors and all firm sizes.📊

Biggest gains:
Small biz (+67K total across 1–49 headcount)
Services: Education & health (+57K), trade/transport/utilities (+36K), prof. & biz services (+11K)

Goods still positive: construction, manufacturing, and NR/mining all added jobs.Takeaways for markets:
Labor still cooling, not cracking → keeps “soft landing” narrative alive

Cyclical/consumer names ($UPS/$FDX, $WMT/$TGT, $DAL/$UAL, $MAR/$HLT) and healthcare ($UNH, $HUM, $HCA) get support from steady demand

Financials ($JPM, $BAC, $MS, $V, $MA) benefit if this reduces odds of rapid Fed cuts and keeps credit quality intact

Less urgency for the Fed = rates stay higher-for-longer, a modest headwind for high‑duration tech, tailwind for value/cyclicals

Watching how futures re‑price Fed path and how $XLF, $IYT, $IHF, and consumer/industrial ETFs trade into NFP.
#ADPJOBS #JOBSREPORT

[Faction Capital @factioncapital]

@kevinolearytv What the fuck isn't a lot to you? A 1gw facility that's top of the line closed loop system takes roughly 260 million gallons of water to start! I highly doubt you'll be using the best technology because you're in it for the money. https://t.co/YDlAMS9MUg

[Faction Capital @factioncapital]

@BenKizemchuk Great post. But I don’t think you know what a tl;dr is 🤣

[Faction Capital @factioncapital]

@carbonreports I'm confused is this what you're using to analyze and trade with or is it a framework you think the options market should adopt instead of the current one?

[Faction Capital @factioncapital]

@gex_er @TailThatWagsDog This is what helped me trading 0dte the most, this combined with non dealer flow.

[Faction Capital @factioncapital]

@TailThatWagsDog This is only on products like SPX Market maker data, not just options in general. They do offer real time options data, just not the ones that matter haha

[Faction Capital @factioncapital]

📊 APRIL PCE INFLATION:

The BEA's Personal Consumption Expenditures report is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. It tracks consumer spending & price changes across all goods/services.

HEADLINE DATA:
PCE inflation (MoM): +0.4%
Core PCE (MoM): +0.2%
PCE inflation (YoY): +3.8%
Core PCE (YoY): +3.3%
Consumer spending: +$111.1B (+0.5%)
Real spending: +0.1% (barely positive after inflation)

THE BREAKDOWN:
🔴 INFLATION REACCELERATION:
Core PCE at +0.2% monthly = 2.4% annualized run rate. That's above the Fed's 2% target. Headline +0.4% is even hotter (4.8% annualized).
YoY readings remain sticky:

Headline: 3.8% (vs 2% target)
Core: 3.3% (vs 2% target)

This is NOT the "mission accomplished" inflation story the Fed needs.

📉 CONSUMER STRESS BUILDING:

Real DPI (income after tax & inflation): -0.5%
Savings rate: 2.6% (near historic lows)
Real spending: +0.1% (barely growing)

Translation: Incomes falling, savings depleted, consumers tapped out.

🔍 SPENDING BREAKDOWN:
Services: +$67.2B (healthcare, housing, recreation)
Goods: +$44.0B (led by gasoline, food)

Biggest gains: Gasoline (+28.8B), housing/utilities, healthcare
Declining: Motor vehicles (-3.9B), recreational goods (-9.2B)
RED FLAGS:
Core inflation running >2% annualized (Fed problem)

Real incomes shrinking -0.5% (recession signal)
Savings rate at 2.6% (consumers near breaking point)

Farm income collapsed due to subsidy program ending

MARKET IMPACT:
$SPY $SPX $QQQ - Bearish: sticky inflation + weak consumer
$XLP (Consumer Staples) - Defensive bid as consumers trade down
$XLY (Consumer Discretionary) - Headwind: real spending barely positive
$TLT (Bonds) - Rate cut hopes fading with 3.3% core PCE
$XLE (Energy) - Gasoline spending surged

⚠️ BOTTOM LINE: Stagflation confirmed. Inflation stuck at 3-4%, real incomes falling, consumers broke. Fed can't cut rates with core PCE at 3.3%, but economy needs help.

This is the worst macro setup: slowing growth + persistent inflation = no good policy options.

[Faction Capital @factioncapital]

📊 Q1 2026 GDP (2ND ESTIMATE):

The BEA's GDP report measures total economic output. Released 3 times per quarter (advance, 2nd, final). This is the 2nd estimate with more complete data.

HEADLINE DATA:
Real GDP: +1.6% (annualized)
REVISED DOWN from +2.0% advance estimate
Up from Q4 2025: +0.5%
Corporate profits: +$40.4B (vs +$246.9B in Q4)

THE BREAKDOWN:
🔴 MAJOR REVISION: -0.4pp downgrade Why? Weaker investment & consumer spending than initially reported
Private inventories down (manufacturing & retail destocking)
Services spending down (healthcare)

Partially offset by stronger goods consumption

📊 KEY METRICS:
Real GDI: +0.9% (income-side of economy)
GDP/GDI average: +1.3% (better gauge of true growth)
PCE inflation: +4.5% (still hot)
Core PCE: +4.4% (revised UP 0.1pp - Fed won't like this)

🔍 WHAT'S DRIVING GROWTH: Contributors: Exports, investment, consumer spending, gov't spending Detractor: Imports surged (subtracts from GDP)

RED FLAGS:
GDP-GDI divergence widening (GDP +1.6% vs GDI +0.9%)
Corporate profit growth collapsed ($40B vs $247B prior quarter)

💰 Market Takeaways:
• $SPX $SPY $QQQ → Mixed (slowing growth + sticky inflation)
• $XLF → Headwind from weak profits
• $XLE → Supported by export strength
• $TLT → Higher-for-longer rates pressure

⚠️ Bottom line: Stagflation vibes intensifying. Growth revised lower, inflation revised higher, profits collapsing. Not the mix markets want.

Economy lost momentum through Q1. Q2 data will be critical.

[Faction Capital @factioncapital]

📊 APRIL DURABLE GOODS

New orders for manufactured durable goods surged +7.9% MoM to $346.0 billion. Second straight month of gains and well above consensus expectations (~3.5-4%).

Transportation equipment led the way with a massive +21.5% jump to $130.9 billion. Even excluding transportation, orders rose a solid +1.1%. Excluding defense, they were up a healthy +8.1%.

🔴 Important nuance: The headline beat was almost entirely driven by transportation (+$23.1B from that category alone). Core manufacturing demand outside of transport remains relatively small at just +1.1%.

The Census Bureau’s M3 report tracks big-ticket durable goods orders (things lasting 3+ years like aircraft, machinery, vehicles, and computers). This is seen as a key leading indicator of future business investment, factory activity, production, and hiring.

✈️ Transportation volatility
Aircraft orders are lumpy (Boeing $BA, defense contractors $GD $LMT $NOC). One big commercial or military order can skew the entire report. This is why traders watch ex-transport.

📉 WHAT THIS MEANS:
Core manufacturing demand: WEAK (+1.1%)
Defense spending: STRONG (+8.1% ex-defense means baseline orders fell)
Economic momentum: MIXED signal

SECTOR IMPACT:
$BA $LMT $GD $RTX - Direct beneficiaries
$CAT $DE $HON $EMR - Watch core orders, not headline
$SPY $SPX - Headline bullish, but core is meh
$XLI (Industrials ETF) - Mixed

Bottom line: Strong headline = positive for risk assets and cyclicals. But smart traders will look past the lumpy transport numbers and focus on the softer core trend. Don’t blindly chase the headline pop.

⚠️ Don't chase the headline. Core orders at +1.1% suggest manufacturing is growing but not accelerating. The +7.9% is noise.

[Faction Capital @factioncapital]

Engineers of x; why can't we use the boring company to build underground data centers?

[X Freeze @XFreeze]

Elon Musk’s goal for The Boring Company is to solve one of the most miserable daily experiences on Earth: traffic

Cities are three-dimensional

But transportation is still mostly trapped in a two-dimensional surface network

Roads, intersections, bottlenecks, traffic lights, accidents, construction, weather - everything gets stacked on the same flat layer until the entire system chokes

The Boring Company’s answer is simple but radical: Go underground

Build fast, low-cost tunnel networks under major cities and turn transportation into true 3D infrastructure

Right now, the focus is on making tunneling dramatically faster and cheaper with machines like Prufrock, which is designed to mine continuously while installing tunnel liner at the same time

But the long-term vision goes much further

Local Loop tunnels could move people across cities without surface traffic, while future Hyperloop-style systems could connect entire cities at ultra-high speed

Imagine going from Los Angeles to San Francisco, New York to Washington D.C., or Dubai to Abu Dhabi in a fraction of today’s travel time - underground, electric, direct, and protected from surface congestion

That is the real mission: Building the missing third dimension of transportation

This is how you actually attack soul-destroying traffic at civilization scale

[Faction Capital @factioncapital]

@XFreeze Why aren't we using these to build underground data centers that don't require as much cooling?

[Faction Capital @factioncapital]

@quantedOptions Is Counterparty Premium everything less Market Maker Premium?

ALL FLOW - MM FLOW = Counterparty?

[Faction Capital @factioncapital]

Your site says "Dealer positioning" is that actual dealer positioning? I haven't seen any flow services offer that yet since it's so expensive, most only offer it for SPX in 10 minute intervals
What interval does it update in? You say live refresh but CBOE only offers down to a 1 minute interval.

Do you offer a free 7 or 30 day trial? I've paid for too many shitty tools like this to switch from one that's useful and pay $199 to try it out. Thanks!

[Faction Capital @factioncapital]

@Web3Marmot Tell us you don't actually trade without telling us you don't actually trade.

[Faction Capital @factioncapital]

This is spreading disinformation Marc. Alliance for a Better Utah and Elevate Utah are both ran by Utahn's

Kevin stated he would provide proof but doesn't have it. There is none.

Alliance for a Better Utah supposedly got one grant for $20k back in 2024 from an Arabella subsidiary. That's hardly proof of Chinese backing.

[Faction Capital @factioncapital]

LOGICAL FALLACY: Poisoning the Well with misinformation.

Dismissing critics or opposition by linking them (often tenuously) to "Chinese-linked" funding, CCP proxies, or "misinformation" rather than addressing merits.

FOX news stated that you were going to provide proof. WHERE IS THE PROOF?

[Faction Capital @factioncapital]

VIX Expiration Calendar 2026
21 January 2026
18 February 2026
18 March 20268
15 April 2026
19 May 2026 (Tuesday, due to Juneteenth holiday on Friday 19 June 2026)
17 June 2026
22 July 2026
19 August 2026
16 September 2026
21 October 2026
18 November 2026
16 December 2026

Irregular weekly expirations:

3 March 2026 (Tuesday, due to Good Friday holiday on 3 April 2026)
2 June 2026 (Tuesday, due to Friday 3 July exchange holiday)
24 November 2026 (Tuesday, due to Christmas Day on Friday)
1 December 2026 (Tuesday, due to New Year's Day on Friday)

[Faction Capital @factioncapital]

@kevinolearytv Your plans for your data center stratos are not sustainable though. Lies and more lies.

[Faction Capital @factioncapital]

@unusual_whales This post is bias by commission. Trump's funds are in a trust. These are trades the trust took, not necessarily himself. Be more clear in your post.