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MARKET ANALYSIS The US-Iran Deal and Its Effects on the Forex Market: Market Talks On Wednesday, June 17, 2026, the United States and Iran announced they had reached an agreement in principle (Memorandum of Understanding - MOU). This framework includes an immediate ceasefire, and a 60 days window to negotiate final terms. Key Points from the MOU: 1. Immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon. 2. Mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity and non interference in each other's internal affairs. 3. 60 days negotiation period with the possibility of an extention for a final agreement. 4. US to lift naval blockade and restrictions on Iran within 30 days. 5. Iran to ensure safe, toll free passage through the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days, with full pre war shipping traffic levels targeted within 30 days. 6. Dialogue on future governance of the Strait with Oman and Gulf states. 7. US and partners to develop a $300 billion reconstruction plan for Iran. 8. Phased removal of sanctions (oil, banking, etc.). 9. Iran reaffirms no nuclear weapons; down blending of enriched uranium under IAEA supervision (more details to be revealed in the final deal). 10. Status quo maintained until final agreement. 11. Temporary waivers for Iranian oil exports and related services. 12. Phased release of frozen assets. 13. Implementation mechanism established. 14. Path to a binding UN Security Council resolution. Oil reacted sharply, falling below $76 per barrel on Thursday in Asian trading, which is its lowest level since late early March as referenced in the chart below. DXY held near two month highs as the Fed (in its first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh) kept rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, with half the policymakers now projecting a rate hike sometime late 2026 amid inflation concerns. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR TRADERS. This is a classic Macro first event.. Geopolitical tension de-escalation is flooding the market with two big forces: lower risk and higher oil supply expectations. Here’s how it translates to your charts, even if you don’t follow news daily: Oil (and energy related pair like USDCAD): Lower oil means weaker commodity currencies. Watch for bearish pressure on CAD. On your chart, look for Break of Structure (BOS) to the downside in oil after any short term bounce. USDCAD may find support if oil stabilizes, but sustained oil weakness favors USD strength here. EURUSD & GBPUSD (Risk-on majors🔼): Reduced fear means more appetite for risk. These pairs often rise when safe haven flows like USD, JPY, Gold ease. Look for higher highs and higher lows if momentum continues. A clean Change of Character (CHoCH) above recent resistance would confirm the shift. USDJPY: Risk-off environments usually strengthen the Yen. With risk fading, JPY can weaken (USDJPY bullish). Watch for continuation moves higher if DXY stays firm. Gold (XAUUSD): Safe haven demand drops when tensions ease. Gold has already pulled back. On the chart, expect range bound or corrective price action unless new macro shocks appear. Liquidity sweeps below recent lows are common in these situations. Watch $4,060 - $3,920 range. Overall Market Structure: The macro narrative has shifted from war premium to peace dividend. Price will now try to express this new reality through trends or ranges. Your job is not to predict the next price move, but to check if structure (BOS/CHoCH) and liquidity align with the macro story before executing trades. Remember: Markets don’t move on news alone... they move on how price reacts to the news. Always wait for confirmation in the three layers (Macro → Structure → Execution) before deploying your risk. This is my personal view of the markets and is for educational purposes only. NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE! Markets can change rapidly, always manage your risk. Happy trading 💙

factos022's tweet photo. MARKET ANALYSIS
The US-Iran Deal and Its Effects on the Forex Market: Market Talks

On Wednesday, June 17, 2026, the United States and Iran announced they had reached an agreement in principle (Memorandum of Understanding - MOU).
This framework includes an immediate ceasefire, and a 60 days window to negotiate final terms.

Key Points from the MOU:

1. Immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.

2. Mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity and non interference in each other's internal affairs.

3. 60 days negotiation period with the possibility of an extention for a final agreement.

4. US to lift naval blockade and restrictions on Iran within 30 days.

5. Iran to ensure safe, toll free passage through the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days, with full pre war shipping traffic levels targeted within 30 days.

6. Dialogue on future governance of the Strait with Oman and Gulf states.

7. US and partners to develop a $300 billion reconstruction plan for Iran.

8. Phased removal of sanctions (oil, banking, etc.).

9. Iran reaffirms no nuclear weapons; down blending of enriched uranium under IAEA supervision (more details to be revealed in the final deal).

10. Status quo maintained until final agreement.

11. Temporary waivers for Iranian oil exports and related services.

12. Phased release of frozen assets.

13. Implementation mechanism established.

14. Path to a binding UN Security Council resolution.

Oil reacted sharply, falling below $76 per barrel on Thursday in Asian trading, which is its lowest level since late early March as referenced in the chart below.

DXY held near two month highs as the Fed (in its first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh) kept rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, with half the policymakers now projecting a rate hike sometime late 2026 amid inflation concerns.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR TRADERS.
This is a classic Macro first event.. Geopolitical tension de-escalation is flooding the market with two big forces: lower risk and higher oil supply expectations.

Here’s how it translates to your charts, even if you don’t follow news daily:

Oil (and energy related pair like USDCAD):
Lower oil means weaker commodity currencies. Watch for bearish pressure on CAD. On your chart, look for Break of Structure (BOS) to the downside in oil after any short term bounce. USDCAD may find support if oil stabilizes, but sustained oil weakness favors USD strength here.

EURUSD & GBPUSD (Risk-on majors🔼):
Reduced fear means more appetite for risk. These pairs often rise when safe haven flows like USD, JPY, Gold ease. Look for higher highs and higher lows if momentum continues. A clean Change of Character (CHoCH) above recent resistance would confirm the shift.

USDJPY:
Risk-off environments usually strengthen the Yen. With risk fading, JPY can weaken (USDJPY bullish). Watch for continuation moves higher if DXY stays firm.

Gold (XAUUSD):
Safe haven demand drops when tensions ease. Gold has already pulled back. On the chart, expect range bound or corrective price action unless new macro shocks appear. Liquidity sweeps below recent lows are common in these situations. Watch $4,060 - $3,920 range.

Overall Market Structure:
The macro narrative has shifted from war premium to peace dividend. Price will now try to express this new reality through trends or ranges.

Your job is not to predict the next price move, but to check if structure (BOS/CHoCH) and liquidity align with the macro story before executing trades.

Remember: Markets don’t move on news alone... they move on how price reacts to the news. Always wait for confirmation in the three layers (Macro → Structure → Execution) before deploying your risk.

This is my personal view of the markets and is for educational purposes only. NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE! Markets can change rapidly, always manage your risk.

Happy trading 💙

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