mr.miyagi

Quantitative Finance | Beating The Odds

[mr.miyagi @fadeodds]

wanted to shed some insight about how I go about sports betting. Rule #1: The house always wins. The only times I bet big are when I have some sort of edge, whether that be from models/historical data or a more holistic knowledge of matchups and I think the lines are wrong.

[mr.miyagi @fadeodds]

interesting read from @dampedspring
since everyone is hunting for alpha nowadays

https://t.co/bHpuHqxdmr

[mr.miyagi @fadeodds]

Also, in my time away, I’ve been developing a Euclidean Arbitrage Algorithm to profit off of mispricing in live sports markets caused by telecast latency. Obviously cannot make the program public, but will be posting updates on it very soon. #throwmeafollow

[mr.miyagi @fadeodds]

In other news, I will be at UFC 322 at Madison Square Garden. One of the best cards in recent history, very excited. Expect a full slate of picks next week. #ufc322 #ufc #sportsbettingtwitter #picks

[mr.miyagi @fadeodds]

apologies for being mia, enjoy the view

[mr.miyagi @fadeodds]

Aljamain Sterling’s ML odds went from -240 to -480 👀

[mr.miyagi @fadeodds]

UFC Fight Night Shanghai:
Early 6 am card for us US folks, I have a 2 leg parlay.

Zhang Mingyang
Aljamain Sterling

comes out to -132, good luck
#UFC #SportsBettingX #SportsGambling

[mr.miyagi @fadeodds]

follow for more

[mr.miyagi @fadeodds]

Picks for UFC 319: DDP v. Khamzat

Khamzat Chimaev
Carlos Prates
Michael Venom Page

Unfortunately no underdogs today, but should be easy wins for all three fighters. #SportsBettingX #UFC319 #ufc

[mr.miyagi @fadeodds]

follow for more

[mr.miyagi @fadeodds]

picks for UFC Fight Night: Abu Dhabi

Reinier De Ridder
Petr Yan
Shara Bullet

#SportsGambling #UFCAbuDhabi #ufc

[mr.miyagi @fadeodds]

told you

[mr.miyagi @fadeodds]

ilia topuria will be the lightweight champion

[mr.miyagi @fadeodds]

extremely pumped for this weekend, you already know who i got. El Matador, …and new 🇪🇸🇬🇪 #ufc317 #internationalfightweek #IliaTopuria #charlesolivera

[mr.miyagi @fadeodds]

Tottenham v. Man Utd. BTTS (-140):
Tottenham have scored 92.3% of their last 13 Europa League Matches and Man Utd. have scored 100% of their last 13. Important games for both teams, odds are as expected but I still see value here. #SportsGambling #SportsBettingX

[mr.miyagi @fadeodds]

Bangdown. Follow for more ✅ #bettingtips

[mr.miyagi @fadeodds]

Don't take this bet if you're looking for +EV opportunities, I just think its a good play so take it with a grain of salt. I would parlay Chelsea 3-way ML (-182) and Aston Villa 3-way ML (-371), both teams need the win bad and are in good form. That is all. #SportsGambling

[mr.miyagi @fadeodds]

Feeling generous today, have a couple picks at decent odds. Taking Kashiwa Reysol (+110) Tie no Bet, they've won or tied the last 10 and only lost 1 in the last 16. I think this bet has good value, bet responsibly. #sportsbettingpicks #SportsGambling

[mr.miyagi @fadeodds]

Columbus Crew (+125) 3-way ML:
If you want to play it safe and manage risk, I would suggest taking Columbus Crew Draw No Bet (-134). Columbus Crew is 6/6 in their last 6 games with Montreal, I think the odds are in our favor. Bet Responsibly. #SportsGambling #SportsBettingX

[mr.miyagi @fadeodds]

A quick final note: I am not a professional bettor, I haven't made millions from this, not even close. A lot of these influencers are lying to you. I am simply a quant finance student that studies math and am trying my best to understand the market. Good Luck

[mr.miyagi @fadeodds]

wanted to shed some insight about how I go about sports betting. Rule #1: The house always wins. The only times I bet big are when I have some sort of edge, whether that be from models/historical data or a more holistic knowledge of matchups and I think the lines are wrong.

[mr.miyagi @fadeodds]

Rule #3: Anything can happen, don't chase losses and don't chase wins. As much as I think stoicism is corny, it applies here. stay neutral, stay sharp. Make sure you understand your appetite for risk and never ever over leverage because you think its a "lock". You will get hurt.

[mr.miyagi @fadeodds]

Rule #2: Don't bet everyday, this is an exercise in patience and waiting for +EV opportunities. The law of large numbers always prevails, if you're betting everyday based of a gut feeling, you are donating to vegas.