Breakthroughs and headlines have become SO extreme, Trillion $$, UFOs, AGI, Moon bases, Billions of Humanoid… that were being numb to the extraordinary!
"LM Arena is a cancer on AI. Labs have entire teams dedicated to hacking it."
Edwin Chen (@echen), CEO of Surge AI, on why the industry's favorite benchmark is broken and how Surge hit $1.2 billion in revenue without ever raising.
Aravind Srinivas (@AravSrinivas), CEO of Perplexity, on Apple's AI advantage, Claude Code economics, the endgame of coding, and Perplexity Computer.
They join @Jason on This Week in AI Episode 10:
00:00 Intro to Aravind Srinivas and Edwin Chen
05:25 Edwin on Surge: School for AGI
10:47 What Apple's next CEO should do
21:20 "The iPhone is not getting disrupted by AI"
23:55 Bootstrapping Surge past $1B without raising
30:58 Claude Code as a loss leader
33:30 Are we in the endgame for coding?
41:34 30% headcount growth, 5x revenue
50:29 "People don't buy models, they buy products"
58:00 "LM Arena is a cancer on AI"
1:05:41 Model Council and orchestrating frontier models
Full episode on YT, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts below:
@perplexity_ai@HelloSurgeAI
Presidio Bitcoin published a detailed technical report assessing quantum computing's threat to bitcoin.
The conclusion: bitcoin is not at immediate risk, but the window to prepare is measured in years, not decades.
The core vulnerability is straightforward. A sufficiently powerful quantum computer could run Shor's algorithm to derive private keys from exposed public keys. If a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) existed today, an estimated 6.5 million BTC, roughly a third of the total supply, would be immediately vulnerable to theft.
Over two-thirds of that exposure, approximately 4.5 million BTC, comes from address reuse, much of it concentrated among a small number of large custodians operating that way for simplicity. That portion is reducible today without any protocol change, simply by rotating to fresh addresses. The remaining structural exposure includes 1.72 million BTC in legacy pay-to-pubkey (P2PK) outputs, most of which are presumed lost.
Addresses that have never spent, where only a hash of the public key is visible on-chain, are not vulnerable at rest under current understanding.
The timeline for CRQCs remains uncertain. Recent expert surveys place a 50% probability of cryptographically relevant machines emerging by 2030 to 2035, though significant hardware bottlenecks remain unproven at scale.
Bitcoin's path forward involves deploying post-quantum signature schemes via soft fork. Developer attention is already visible: quantum-related discussion on Bitcoin's development mailing list has risen from roughly 5% of messages in 2024 to 50% in early 2026.
Migration capacity is not the bottleneck. If 25% of block space were dedicated to migration, 90% of bitcoin's value could move in about four days.
You have two choices:
1. This is the beginning of the end of the AI replacement cycle. Everything up until now was false alarms and mis/disinformation. You can start to scale back into these companies because, once the noise subsides, these companies are durable and will be around roughly in the same or better position in 10 years.
2. This is the beginning of the beginning of the AI replacement cycle. Customer churn slowly ticks up. NDR slowly ticks down, RPO begins to be discounted - initially by a little, then by a lot. SBC gets minimized, FCF gets maximized. Valuations become exercised in seeing which assumptions are reliable and which are unreliable - all roads lead to more vol an a general downward trend on price and multiples.
Good luck to all the players.
If you, like me, just woke up, let me catch you up on the Claude Code Leak (I know nothing, all conjecture):
> Someone inside Anthropic, got switched to Adaptive reasoning mode
> Their Claude Code switched to Sonnet
> Committed the .map file of Claude Code
> Effectively leaking the ENTIRE CC Source Code
> @realsigridjin was tired after running 2 south korean hackathons in SF, saw the leak
> Rules in Korea are different, he cloned the repo, went to sleep
> Wakes up to 25K stars, and his GF begging him to take it down (she's a copyright lawyer)
> Their team decided - how about we have agents rewrite this in Python!? Surely... this is more legal
> Rewrite in Py
> Board a plane to SK🇰🇷
> One of the guys decides python is slow, is now rewriting ALL OF CLAUDE CODE into Rust.
> Anthropic cannot take down, cannot sue
> Is this "fair use?"
> TL;DR - we're about to have open source Claude Code in Rust
I think people are misunderstanding what’s happening here.
The new draft of the CLARITY Act does not prohibit issuers from paying distributors such as @coinbase , @binance , or @okx . The discussion around yield is really about retail holders, meaning the end users who actually hold the stablecoin. In practice, @coinbase likely would not be allowed to pass that yield through to users, or at least not as easily as many people previously expected.
What does that mean for @circle?
Circle would obviously continue paying Coinbase for distribution. Circle is not the party that stands to make more money from this dynamic. Coinbase is. Today, Coinbase distributes roughly 60% of the yield it receives to users, so if passthrough becomes restricted, Coinbase could potentially retain 100% of that economics instead.
One could argue that if Coinbase’s net revenue rises materially, Circle might try to renegotiate its agreement.
As things stand today, Coinbase receives 100% of the NIM on all USDC held on Coinbase platforms, and 50% of the NIM on USDC held elsewhere, excluding Circle Wallet.
But I do not think this necessarily changes the relationship. Coinbase knows USDC is the stablecoin of choice for Base, much of DeFi, and regulated U.S. markets. Whether or not it can pass yield through to customers, it still has very strong economic incentives to grow USDC supply. From Circle’s perspective, if the distributor no longer bears the cost of sharing yield with users and can keep the full NIM, that may actually improve the terms for these arrangements ahead of any future negotiations.
On Tether, I also disagree with the claim that:
“The dump was then accelerated by the news that Tether is pursuing a full audit, which threatens Circle’s positioning in the U.S. and Western markets as the tightly regulated, more trusted alternative to USDT.”
I think that is simply wrong. The CLARITY discussion does not materially change the positioning of either issuer. Tether may pursue a full audit, but USDT still would not be GENIUS-compliant, and USAT remains very small in the U.S. and is not a meaningful competitive threat to Circle today. More likely, an audit would help Tether’s broader fundraising and credibility efforts rather than fundamentally alter Circle’s competitive position in the U.S.
More broadly, USDC and USDT are very different products. They serve different user bases, operate with different economics, and rely on very different distribution strategies.
So overall, I do not think this really changes the outlook for Circle or Tether in a major way. The biggest impact is on consumers/retail users and US Banks, not on the issuers themselves.
There may or may not have been a situation in the Situation Room last night. Reports remain unconfirmed.
However, the situation monitors are now on… & ready to be monitored.
See you at 11am.