fchr

hanya catatan harian seorang pemula

[fchr @fafachrifi]

@archsaic mau join kak kalo masih bisa

[fchr @fafachrifi]

@puffclawndoryn @kangyounkyu hi kak, apakah slotnya masih ada?

[fchr @fafachrifi]

@distracjtion hi kak, mau join dong kalo masih ada slot

[Raskha @RashkaLLC]

🚨 BREAKING: IDX resmi update Peraturan I-A tentang Pencatatan Saham (Kep-00045/BEI/03-2026), berlaku HARI INI 31 Maret 2026.

Ini regulasi yang ngatur syarat listing, free float, perpindahan papan, sampe biaya pencatatan.

https://t.co/Tfb83XrJGm

Here’s what changed 🧵👇

[Emir Parengkuan @emir_parengkuan]

Banyak yang nanya, "gimana lo tau sektor mana yang lagi bagus buat trading?"

Gua selalu analisis makro dulu dan gua cari korelasi-korelasinya ke sektor apa yang kira-kira bakal manggung. Tapi penilaian ini subjective.

Di tools yang gua buat, gua pake Relative Rotation Graph (RRG).

Ada 2 axis:
→ X (Strength): seberapa kuat sektor itu vs IHSG
→ Y (Momentum): apakah strength-nya lagi naik atau turun

Kondisi sekarang (Dec 29 '25 → Mar 31 '26):
• Leading:
IDXENERGY, IDXINDUST, IDXHEALTH
• Improving:
IDXTECHNO, IDXINFRA, IDXPROPERT
• Weakening:
IDXNONCYC, IDXFINANCE, IDXBASIC, IDXTRANS
• Lagging:
IDXCYCLIC

Yang paling menarik?
Sebenernya IDXTECHNO sama IDXPROPERT lagi nge-trail naik ke kuadran Improving showing early sign rotation mau masuk Leading.

Tapi for volume and liquidity reasons, gw cenderung untuk bermain di PTBA.

Why?

Karena sektor energy masih outperform + momentumnya kuat.

[Pink Bourbon @pinkbourbon8898]

Some of my wealthiest friends and relatives don’t follow markets at all. No charts, no thesis, no screener. But they own BBCA. And their strategy is almost embarrassingly simple: if it drops more than 10% from their average, they buy more. That’s it. No stop loss, no scenario analysis, no ikut ikutan kelas.

And honestly? For them, it works. Because BBCA is a small slice of a much larger picture. Their real wealth sits in property, business equity, private credit. The stock portfolio is almost recreational. So the psychological math is completely different. A 30% drawdown on something that represents 3% of your capital is not the same animal as a 30% drawdown on something that represents 60% of your liquid savings.

Position sizing changes everything about what the right behavior is.
The “jangan cut loss, company bagus akan balik” logic is not universally wrong. It’s wrong when the position is too big relative to your total capital and your ability to stay solvent, patient, and rational while it bleeds. For someone with deep pockets and a 5% stock allocation, averaging down on BBCA is a completely reasonable strategy. For someone with 80% of their savings in one or two names, the same behavior is a slow liquidation of their financial future.

And this is one of the most common mistakes traders and investors make. They watch a conglomerate, a family office, or a big institution hold through a 40% drawdown without flinching, and they think “okay, that’s the move.” What they don’t see is that the conglomerate is only deploying 1 to 2% of their total capital into listed equities. The rest is in operating businesses, hard assets, and private structures that don’t mark to market daily. They’re not being brave. They’re just playing with money that genuinely doesn’t hurt if it disappears. Copying the behavior without copying the balance sheet is one of the most expensive mistakes in investing. You’re mimicking the surface. Not the structure. (example : orang X liat #NETV diakum di 120-150 lalu junam ke 70)

This is why copying the behavior of wealthy investors without copying their balance sheet construction is dangerous. You see the action. You don’t see the context that makes the action safe.

The real lesson here isn’t “cut loss always” or “hold always.” It’s: know what role each position plays in your total picture, then decide the rules accordingly. Most people skip that step entirely. They just react.
Mereka yang tajir tadi bukan gak ngerti risk. Mereka ngerti banget. They’ve just structured their life so that one position going wrong doesn’t change anything. That’s the actual edge. Bukan strategi-nya. The architecture underneath it.

[Cheytax Management LLC @Cheytax_1]

WRONG IS PART OF THE GAME.

Lately, a lot of portfolios are getting absolutely wrecked. Down 20%, 50%, even 75%. If we could learn a thing or two from why is that happening? Simple.. humans are wired to avoid being wrong. Nobody wants to be wrong in this world, hate it or love it, that’s just nature or by design..

"Siapa sih yang mau salah?"

You see someone down 30–40% in a "safe" name like ICBP or even BBCA. Low volatility type of stock, cash generating, ok growth is not as usual but.. hey.. low expected return too tho, daily movement average is at 1-2%, how come someone is down nearly half their money there? Not the stocks that are bad, just how they react to the market that is wrong.

Instead of cutting, people start justifying:

"Businessnya masih ada kok"
"Kata si ini mau dikerek ke xxxx"
"Bottom lah udah max fear"
"Dividend ada kok"

Technically, not wrong. But in the public market, there are two axes. Just look at the formula for Total Shareholder Return or TSR:

((P1 – P0) + D) / P0

P1 is latest price.
P0 is average price you paid.
D is dividend.

The company pays you a dividend. But the deviation between price movement and dividend is apples to oranges. Price can swing ±30%, while the dividend gives you just 5-10%. If the stock hit -30% drawdown, that dividend becomes irrelevant.

-

No matter how good your strategy, how solid your thesis, how impressive your RMSE, CI, or IR… eventually, you will be wrong. And.. you can be wrong all the time and still make life changing money. The only condition? You admit when you're wrong. Admit it that humans are DOGSHIT at investing. Dogshit at predicting where the market goes tomorrow. We're all stupid. Not just you and me, all of us. The longer you're in this market, the more you realize that "The market is RANDOM".

-

We ran a simulation, just on the JCI. Assumed we're betting on the index. Wrong 60% of the time, right 40%. In one scenario, when we were wrong, we did nothing. In the other, still wrong 60%, right 40%, but when we were wrong, we cut at 50% of the forecasted move.

*Example: you bet JCI will go up 5%. It goes down 5%. So when the loss hits -2.5%, you get out.*

The "stubborn and feeling like the smartest person in the room" strategy.. ofc smoked.

The "Okay, I'm wrong, move on, we're all dogshit at predicting price” strategy.. generated ridiculous CAGR. 19.89% from a single ticker… JCI.

So what's the catch? You can be wrong most of the time and still make life changing money. Your performance beats 99.99% of investors out there. Your alpha is unmatched. You make index returns look like SHIT.. all if you... admit when you're wrong.

Admitting you're wrong is just as important as picking the right company to buy. You take all these classes, paying 5 to 50 million for this or that, but when it's time to execute, you act like it's your first day in the market. "I'm right, the market is wrong" Stop attending expensive classes if you think you'll be right all the time. Useless.

-

And drawdown management *the thing most people take lightly* ends up destroying long term CAGR. Think of the market as binary: predictable vs unpredictable. When it's predictable, you play, fine, you make billions, maybe trillions, whatever. But when it's in the unpredictable phase, you still bet. And when you're wrong, you don't admit it. That's the crucial part. Why?? Because when the market becomes predictable again.. you're no longer playing with the same capital.

-

"Jangan cut loss"
"Kalau company-nya bagus, akan balik kok"

Not wrong... But we all know what it does to the CAGR.

[Rottenbanana @neollexador]

on serious context

di bull market, mau gw analisa :
- tarik garis kek
- valuation kek
- ngehitung kancing kek
- anvol, broksum, bla bla ble ble
- based on "info a1/info temen" kek

ya at the end bakal cuan semua juga

however, at bear market, mau gw analisa secanggih apapun, mau pake info se A1111 apapun, mau gw bandarnya atau temen bandar atau jadi nominee kek

ya klo market as a whole tidak menghendaki, bakal kena entot semua

[Almer Sad, CFA @Kutekians]

Reminder untuk hindari tebak2 bottom berujung capital terkikis terus menerus

Kalau kita trading dengan disiplin teknikal, kita ga akan pernah buy tepat di harga terendah dan sell tepat di harga tertinggi.

Disiplin teknikal itu buy/sell setelah ada confirmation reversal, yang artinya pasti harga sudah ga di titik tertinggi/terendah, and that's exactly how it should be.

[fchr @fafachrifi]

@_LANDI_ @SeputarMadrid info aje nonton di tele bang

https://t.co/sYbOS0Hr8d

[Milo. | #InvestasiTenang @eskepalmilosatu]

Tips sabar:

1. Jangan mantengin chart tiap menit. Harga naik-turun itu kerjaan market, bukan sinyal darurat. Makin sering dicek, makin kecil toleransi fluktuasi, padahal tren besar belum tentu berubah.

2. Inget alasan awal masuk. Beli karena valuasi, siklus, atau turnaround, bukan karena rame. Jadi komentar orang, mau muji, mau nyinyir, nggak relevan selama alasan itu belum rusak.

3. Ambil jeda itu penting. Market nggak butuh kita online terus. Kadang keputusan paling bener justru lahir setelah kita ninggalin layar. Tutup aplikasi, biarin harga jalan sendiri.

4. Pisahin noise sama fakta. Noise itu opini, emosi, dan prediksi tanpa data. Fakta itu laporan keuangan, guidance, aksi korporasi, dan perubahan fundamental. Timeline rame nggak otomatis ada masalah.

5. Terakhir, fokus ke yang bisa dikontrol: sizing, average price, risk, dan exit plan. Harga harian, opini orang, dan sentimen sesaat bukan wilayah kita. Biarin lewat, energi dipakai buat keputusan yang bener.

[fchr @fafachrifi]

@msolstocks huuu terbang akhirnya 💔😭

[fchr @fafachrifi]

@adepati_dolk @msolstocks kalau gua tau jawabannya, gua bakal cepet kaya sih mas 😂

[fchr @fafachrifi]

@msolstocks ampun ndar udah basah kuyup 🥲

[Raskha @RashkaLLC]

Hi All, thanks for the wait. Had a little bit of technical issue 🙏

Please use this link access the report (thanks @igodbe_ for lending me your Gdrive): https://t.co/0GMp6bO4vT

Below are some of the important points I’d like to highlight:

[fchr @fafachrifi]

@mochisupremachy @tuanpasar69 menurut saya, harga koreksi dengan volume meningkat artinya market semakin “setuju” kalo harganya makin murah. idealnya, ketika koreksi dibarengi volume menipis, yang artinya koreksi itu tidak dikehendaki oleh pasar dan pasar mau harga terus naik

[fchr @fafachrifi]

@bgswijayaa bisa dijelaskan lebih jauh gak bang terkait ini? saya belum nyampe

[fchr @fafachrifi]

@dedewizard19 mas mau tanya, SMA nya pakai berapa aja kalau di chart ini?

[fchr @fafachrifi]

@Desgreade @thebabayega_ info clue om