Bret Farrell

Economist. Oregonian. @IllinoisStateU graduate.

[Bret Farrell @farrell_bret]

NAHB/Wells Fargo HOI shows that for Q4 2022, just 15.7% of homes sold in Portland MSA would have been affordable to a family earning the local median income, compared to 57.1% in Q1 2020.

[Bret Farrell @farrell_bret]

Portland’s population, in-migration, and broader economy hinge on affordable housing and the trends are bleak. From January 2017 to August 2022 the % of currently listed homes a $100k income could afford in the Portland MSA fell from 40% to 11%

[Bret Farrell @farrell_bret]

@lehnerjw Really interesting data. The reports of Portland’s death seem to be greatly exaggerated.

[Bret Farrell @farrell_bret]

What could be the cause of out-migration in the west?

[Jim Russell @ProducerCities]

"Perhaps most surprising is the domestic out-migration from the West. Six of that region’s 13 states saw net domestic out-migration ...six of the remaining seven western states showed smaller migration gains in 2021-22 than in the previous year" https://t.co/WxMYJ5o7P5

[Bret Farrell @farrell_bret]

@lehnerjw Seattleites when they look at the numbers and realize their population has been decreasing since 2019 also

[Bret Farrell @farrell_bret]

Not to say Portland doesn't have problems (it has plenty), but people moved to find affordable housing during the pandemic, that was the trend.

[Bret Farrell @farrell_bret]

Of the top 100 most populous cities in the US,

Average Zillow Home Value Index in January 2020 for cities that saw a population increase: $273,754

Average Zillow Home Value Index in January 2020 for cities that saw a population decrease: $363,568

Housing prices drive migration

[Willamette Week @wweek]

The old saying is a conservative is a liberal who’s been mugged. In Portland, many liberals are dodging stray bullets, losing catalytic converters to thieves, and sidestepping tents. Then they open their tax bills.
https://t.co/e1oItsn2AD

[Bret Farrell @farrell_bret]

Of the top 100, biggest population gainers from 2020-2021 were cities in the west with ZHVI in Jan 2020 under $400k and the biggest losers were SF, NYC and Boston all with ZHVI in Jan 2020 over $600k

[Bret Farrell @farrell_bret]

Oregon’s residential utility debt continues to decline (now down -42.5% since its peak in May 2021) despite a worsening national outlook surrounding overdue utility balances

[Bret Farrell @farrell_bret]

Most recently available arrears data for Oregon IOUs from May – 90+ day arrears balance has begun to level off, but it is a tale of two energy types.

[The Oregonian @Oregonian]

Oregon utilities crunch big data, tap artificial intelligence to reduce wildfire risks https://t.co/fVeTuMQEAB

[Rick Palacios Jr. @RickPalaciosJr]

Doesn’t tie all that well with thesis consumers are still flush with cash.

[Bret Farrell @farrell_bret]

@lehnerjw Curious how much suburban sprawl has compounded the issue of homelessness in urban cores. Failure to integrate different housing types or incomes among new construction in suburbs. Suburban Nation is a great read if you get the chance!

[Bret Farrell @farrell_bret]

@lehnerjw I imagine MSA level data could get a little messy with things like this. Very interesting though, thanks for sharing!

[📈 Len Kiefer 📊 @lenkiefer]

U.S. 30-year mortgage rates are up 1.56 percentage points since the end of 2021.
That's the largest 3-month increase since May 1987.

[Khoa Vu @KhoaVuUmn]

P < 0.05 Unparallel trends

[📈 Len Kiefer 📊 @lenkiefer]

Back in 2009 the U.S. had an excess of 1.9 million vacant housing units. As of the fourth quarter of 2021 there was an undersupply of 1.8 million vacant units.

[Bret Farrell @farrell_bret]

@lehnerjw A mix of out of pocket and assistance

Utilities have contributed around $34 million in AMP funds to customers past due balances since February, customers are also likely tapping into other energy assistance forms like LIHEAP.

[Bret Farrell @farrell_bret]

Oregon’s residential utility arrears continue to show positive signs of recovery, but lower income zip codes are lagging behind.