Richard Farr

Chief Market Strategist / Partner @ Pivotus Partners. Always seeking truth / assessing risks. My opinions only. Not investment advice. Do the work!

[Richard Farr @farrmacro]

I write macroeconomic and strategy assessments for the institutional investment community. My posts here are things that I find interesting, thoughtful, or merely just entertaining. Although some of my posts may reflect strongly-held views on the investment landscape, that doesn't mean those views won't change as facts change and it certainly doesn't mean those things are right for YOU! Proper investment advice involves a deep understanding of your goals, needs, and risk-tolerances. Nobody should consider anything here investment advice, but rather, merely informative. I'd probably offer the same level of caution about getting medical advice here too, by the way. Have a health issue? See a doctor. Want to devise a financial plan? Well, see a financial advisor. Twitter ain't going to cure you in either instance.

[Richard Farr @farrmacro]

If they immediately drop a $1.7T company into these indices, other stocks would have had to be sold.

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

Wow, the S&P Dow Jones Indices has just officially announced that they will NOT be changing their inclusion rules to make it easier for “MegaCap” companies (such as @SpaceX) to be fast-tracked into the S&P 500.

Their reasoning:
"S&P DJI determined that exceptions to the financial viability, seasoning, and IWF requirements should not be granted solely based on market capitalization. The decision not to adopt the proposed exceptions preserves core index principles by maintaining consistent application of these key requirements. Although there may be trade-offs between strict adherence to these eligibility requirements and broad representativeness, the current methodology provides substantial market coverage and sector balance. As a result, the indices can continue to meet their stated objectives while preserving their role as representative and investable benchmarks for the U.S. equity market.

No changes will be made to the eligibility criteria including financial viability screens, seasoning period, or minimum IWF, for the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400, or S&P SmallCap 600 as a result of the S&P Dow Jones Indices consultation on the treatment of MegaCap companies. Accordingly, there will be no changes to existing methodology for this index family."

This means that the earliest @SpaceX could be eligible to be added to the S&P 500 would now be June 2027.

The requirements that will now remain in place are:
• No changes to S&P 500 eligibility rules for mega-cap companies.
• Mega-cap companies will still need to wait 12 months after their IPO before being considered for S&P 500 inclusion.
• S&P will not waive profitability requirements for mega-cap companies. The company must have positive GAAP net income in the most recent quarter, and the sum of the most recent four consecutive quarters.
• S&P will not waive minimum public float requirements for mega-cap companies. At least 10% of a company's shares must be publicly tradable ("free float").

The S&P rejected proposals that would have:
• Reduced the IPO seasoning period from 12 months to 6 months
• Waived profitability requirements
• Waived minimum public float requirements

[Acyn @Acyn]

Trump: If I did meet with the new Ayatollah, I would be honored to meet him.

Doocy: Do you think because Epic Fury killed his killed his dad and his wife and his kid that he's has hard feelings?

Trump: I would say I'm not his favorite person, but with that being said, he's probably a pro—I don't know him—he's probably a professional in some circles, he has a very good reputation actually, you know, sometimes when people say bad, but a lot of people say bad about me . It's totally false, of course.

[Richard Farr @farrmacro]

Twitterverse keeps telling me the AI bubble is popping. Hmm.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

It's official.

MicroStrategy, $MSTR, is now facing its biggest unrealized loss in history, at -$10.8 billion.

In other words, after 6 years of buying Bitcoin, the company is now down -17% on its position.

By comparison, the S&P 500 is up +116% over this same timeframe.

Since MicroStrategy sold 32 Bitcoin at $77,135 per coin, their positions has lost -$11.8 billion in value.

This puts MicroStrategy's stock, $MSTR, down -77% since its record high.

Bear market is an understatement.

[Richard Farr @farrmacro]

And the half that isn’t underwater not only is down 2% again today but missing out on the S&P, which is up.

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: Over 50% of all Bitcoin $BTC in circulation is now held at an unrealized loss.

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

JUST IN

Hezbollah leader rejects the results of direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel.

[Richard Farr @farrmacro]

$62,306. Wasn’t this strategic at this level just a few months ago? I’m very confused.

[Richard Farr @farrmacro]

$64,338

@jimcramer - when will your source provide us with details regarding the strategic reserve? When will Congress announce appropriations for such a fund? Will Treasury provide us with a list of coins they’ll be buying? Have administration officials been buying those coins ahead of time for their personal accounts??? Just curious. Shouldn’t something of this “strategic” significance be well documented????????

[Greg Price @greg_price11]

BESSENT: "Sen. Wyden has slandered the Treasury building to cover up his son having an investment with Jeffrey Epstein."

WYDEN: "Nobody is interested in the rambling of a capo in the most corrupt regime in American history."

BESSENT: "Your son's largest investment position was Rick's Cabaret. Did your son and Epstein talk about poll dancing?

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

A joint statement has been released from U.S., Israel and Lebanon:

"The United States convened  the fourth high-level trilateral meeting between Israeli and Lebanese representatives on June 2 and 3, 2026. 
As a result of the U.S. led negotiations, Israel and Lebanon agreed to the implementation of a ceasefire. The ceasefire is contingent on a complete cessation of Hizbollah fire and the evacuation of all Hizbollah operatives from the South Litani Sector.
The two sides agreed with the guidance of the United States to swiftly advance the creation of pilot zones in which the Lebanese Armed Forces will take exclusive control of the territory to the exclusion of all non-state actors.
These steps will enable progress towards a comprehensive peace and security agreement.
All countries reaffirmed that the future of the relationship between Israel and Lebanon must be decided by the two sovereign governments. They rejected any attempt, by any state or non-state actor, to hold Lebanon’s future hostage. 
Israel and Lebanon reaffirmed that they have no hostile intent toward one another and committed to continuing direct negotiations to build confidence, resolve all outstanding issues, and work toward a comprehensive agreement between the two countries. 
The delegations discussed a security framework, building on discussions at the Pentagon on May 29, aimed at sustainably ensuring the sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of Lebanon and Israel. This includes the dismantlement of non-state armed groups, and the prevention of their re-emergence. 
All parties condemned Iran’s attacks on countries in the region, and ongoing activities that undermine stability throughout the Middle East, whether through support for proxies and all other acts of aggression. 
The United States reiterated its ongoing support for both governments to exercise their sovereignty. It reaffirmed that any agreement to cease hostilities must be reached directly between the two governments, brokered by the United States, and not through any separate track. The United States underscored its intent to support the Lebanese Armed Forces, with the aim of improving their capacity and enabling the effective exercise of sovereignty throughout Lebanese territory. It emphasized Secretary Rubio’s June 2 statement that Hizbollah is not just an enemy of Israel and an enemy of America, but that it is an enemy of Lebanon.
Israel reaffirmed that its security and respect for its territorial integrity can only be achieved through the disarmament of Hizbollah and the dismantlement of its infrastructure throughout Lebanon. It emphasized he importance of direct negotiations under the leadership of the United States to resolve all outstanding issues and achieve durable peace and security.
Lebanon reaffirmed the necessity for mutual respect of internationally recognized borders, the urgent need for full implementation of the cessation of hostilities, underscoring the principles of territorial integrity and full state sovereignty. Lebanon committed to enhancing the capacity of the Lebanese Armed Forces, with U.S. support, to assert effective control throughout the country. 
The two parties agreed to reconvene the political and security tracks the week of June 22, with a view toward reaching a comprehensive agreement. The United States agreed to continue facilitating communication between the parties in the interim. "

[Richard Farr @farrmacro]

@NancyMace Imagine the housing crisis we would have if seniors had an economic advantage to literally never sell their homes.

[Richard Farr @farrmacro]

The Biden administration literally drained the SPR to win an election yet now we actually need it.

[gas price check @gaspricecheck]

The pace point is even starker than the chart shows with the last two weekly draws both all-time records, near 9 to 10 million barrels each, topping the prior high of 8.4 million set during the 2022 Biden release. The SPR's help fades before any floor with drawdown rates depending on how full the caverns are, so as inventory falls the system can't sustain max delivery. The buffer loses its grip on prices well above empty.

[Richard Farr @farrmacro]

$64,338

@jimcramer - when will your source provide us with details regarding the strategic reserve? When will Congress announce appropriations for such a fund? Will Treasury provide us with a list of coins they’ll be buying? Have administration officials been buying those coins ahead of time for their personal accounts??? Just curious. Shouldn’t something of this “strategic” significance be well documented????????

[Richard Farr @farrmacro]

$66,294. Have they named the governor of the Strategic Crypto Reserve yet? Maybe recently pardoned CZ?????

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

JUST IN 🔴

Iran claims its forces targeted a U.S. warship in the Gulf of Oman.

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

Reporter: How do you define ceasefire?

Trump: In that part of the world, ceasefire is when you're shooting in a more moderate manner

[Richard Farr @farrmacro]

I’ve said on here many times that Russia’s next move is towards the south … Georgia / Armenia. The best way for Russia to mess with NATO without actually confronting NATO is by flanking Turkey and getting closer to Iran.

[WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧 @WarMonitor3]

Ukrainian intelligence is reporting that a Ukraine style invasion could occur in Armenia and there are certain signals which indicate this.

Wow…

[Richard Farr @farrmacro]

This is some alternate universe

[Clash Report @clashreport]

Trump:

We seem to be getting along quite well with the Ayatollah.

I would like to meet him. I will probably meet him at some point.

[Richard Farr @farrmacro]

Too many people treat the stock market like FanDuel

[The Market Matrix @MarketMatrixs]

BREAKING: $SPCE plummets -40% after redditors start to realize it’s NOT SpaceX

[Richard Farr @farrmacro]

The deal was done a week ago, after being done on April first and now it’s not until September

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

Trump: Could have the blockade of Iran lifted by Labor Day

[Al Jazeera Breaking News @AJENews]

BREAKING: Iran’s Foreign Ministry has condemned what it calls US attacks on an Iranian oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz and a telecommunications tower on Qeshm Island. It says Kuwait and Bahrain bear “direct and clear responsibility” for the attacks and Iran will act in self‑defence.

🔴 More on https://t.co/Kq44qSuyyo

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

The IRGC has gotten emboldened, they feel like they have the initiative.

At some point the U.S. is going to say enough is enough.

I hope.