@Wilhelm_Willie Thought the same. It’s had its flaws, but it’s been nice and consistent the past 10+ years. Tried to get fancy this year and failed big time
@keithlaw True, seems to violate the principle of proportional ink, making the current price look less than half of the peak in Feb. I think the main problem is that this is shown as an area chart rather than a line chart.
@_Ben_Clemens Nice read! With 100 variables, it seems inevitable that their model will overfit and lead to those wacky probabilities. Keep the model simple, select fewer, more informative features, and I bet the model would be much better!