fay

[松原隆彦（不明なエラー［4000］でアップデートできません） @tmcosmos_org]

衝撃が少し落ち着いてきたので昨日の研究会で聞いたことを書くと、元同僚研究者が理論物理学の研究の自動化に取り組んでいて、Claudeをメインにしたシステムをひと月ほどで構築、それを一昨日から1日自律的に動かし（おそらくFable 5か）、昨日出力されたのは、開発者自身（超優秀な世界的理論物理学者です）では思いつかない非自明な結果を含む高度な研究論文だったという。アイデア出しから文献検索、解析計算と数値検証、さらに全ての式変形が数学的に間違いないことの検証、出た結果の他のAIによる検証、原稿作成、査読、リバイズ、などを完全自動化。もはや人間がAIの出力を理解したりチェックする作業が律速段階であるといい、さらには最初に研究したら面白そうだと与えている発想の部分もAIが自律的に行えるようにできるだろうとのこと。夢でも見ていたのかと思ったが、出席していた他の理論物理学者や数学者も自分と同じ衝撃を受けていたので、現実だったようだ

[fay @fay88833]

@ShanghaoJin @hopeyanux deepseek也一样越来越降智

[Alis volat propriis @Alisvolatprop12]

글로벌 단위의 소버린 AI 열풍이 다가온다.

엔비디아의 젠슨이 가장 바라던 그 상황!

[Miles Brundage @Miles_Brundage]

Fascinating how quickly Commerce can move on unsubstantiated Anthropic jailbreak claims, while taking forever to deal with well-documented NVIDIA chip smuggling

[Sunil (FTX Creditor Champion) @sunil_trades]

FTX owns a stake in SPCX via the $700m investment in K5

$190m invested in SPCX at $125bn valuation

Today SPCX is IPO at $1.8trn valuation - 14.4x

Win for FTX creditors

[Logan @logan77coin]

@Meta8Mate @SBF_FTX 这个世界没有对错，只有时和运

[fay @fay88833]

@gelunding 没有上海市政府就没有马斯克的今天

[cho1se.eth @Pussy53154105]

Free SBF @SBF_FTX
Sorry , The crypto fuck up everthing

[fay @fay88833]

@GweiGweiGwei @WatcherGuru CZ is the most treacherous and insidious fraudster

[J @Blue_1Trades]

@Sam_Badawi @ArkkDaily worst trader of our generation. SBF was miles ahead

[Jukan @jukan05]

Bruh

[李老师不是你老师 @whyyoutouzhele]

截止2024年，世界上没有《反虐待动物法》的国家或地区

[fay @fay88833]

@Polymarket Your kind of headline, which takes things out of context and seeks cheap attention, is truly despicable.

[John Scott-Railton @jsrailton]

NEW: malware developers added nuclear & biological weapons text to to their spyware.

Goal? To trigger LLM safety refusals... so that their spyware wouldn't be analyzed by an AI security scanner.

Cleanest practical example I can think of for why over-indexing on first order safety alignment is risky.

When closed (and open) models ship with aggressive refusals, they will be sprinkled with second-order blindspots that attackers will discover...and exploit.

We are only in the earliest days of attackers leveraging these features, and it wouldn't surprise me if users systems that need to handle complex cybersecurity issues demand that models be less safety-blunted.

In the weeds: @SocketSecurity's post also shows why intention matters in how you design a malware analysis pipeline to avoid prompt manipulation.

H/T to colleagues that shared this with me https://t.co/f3Aj9TYxU4

[Dario Amodei @DarioAmodei]

Today I'm publishing a new essay, Policy on the AI Exponential. AI is progressing extremely fast—much faster than the policy process was built to handle. The essay lays out where I think the technology is now, and the action needed to close the gap: https://t.co/Lh6PWae178

[qinbafrank @qinbafrank]

一家从个人博客起步到现在一份报告就能把美股砸崩的研究机构SemiAnalysis和它非半导体专业出身的创始人@dylan522p：
1、Dylan Patel出生于1996年，美国佐治亚大学管理与法律学士。青少年时期（8–12岁起）即活跃于在线硬件论坛，作为“forum warrior”自学Xbox等硬件维修、芯片技术，通过阅读文档和社区交流掌握专业知识。多年来以匿名身份在Reddit、WordPress博客及Silicon Twitter上发布芯片与硬件分析内容，以及moderation 多个Nvidia等硬件社区。

2、2020年5月22日，Dylan在24岁生日时发布第一篇博客，此后正式创立SemiAnalysis。最初以个人匿名WordPress博客起步，后转型为Substack付费内容。

早期就是Dylan一人独自专注于半导体供应链、AI基础设施、云生态系统、机器学习模型及相关领域的深度分析，后面慢慢发展出咨询业务。

Dylan自己也从匿名“Silicon Twitter芯片博主”成长为全球范围内最受关注的AI基础设施分析师之一。

3、近几年SemiAnalysis快速扩张，目前已发展为全球最领先的AI基础设施与半导体研究机构，团队规模约60人，分布于美国、日本、台湾、新加坡、法国、德国、以色列、加拿大、英国等8–10个国家/地区。

2026年SemiAnalysis预计营收超过1亿美元（The Information报道），较早期订阅模式实现爆发式增长。业务模式包括：
1）付费订阅（newsletter + 深度报告）；
2）专有行业模型销售（AI Datacenter Model、Accelerator Industry Model、Wafer Fab Model、AI Cloud TCO Model、AI Networking Model等，用于预测晶圆产能、数据中心电力、加速器产量、TCO经济性等）；
3）顾问业务、定制项目和小时咨询。

提供全供应链（晶圆厂→云端→ML模型）统一视角。 这些专有模型和数据（如卫星图像监测数据中心建设、GitHub commit分析、HBM供应链跟踪）成为客户核心决策工具，客户涵盖顶级AI实验室、超大规模云服务商（hyperscalers）、对冲基金及半导体巨头，其分析直接影响万亿美元级AI资本支出决策。

4、更关键的SemiAnalysis现在的超级影响力
1）黄仁勋在今年GTC keynote上，公开点名Dylan Patel，把SemiAnalysis最新InferenceX芯片性能报告秀上大屏，花了整整5分钟专门解读，还在Q&A继续引用。Jensen这种级别的大佬主动call out一个独立分析师，含金量直接拉满。

2）苏姿丰更狠：SemiAnalysis发了一篇狠批AMD MI300X训练性能的报告，第二天Lisa Su就亲自打电话安排90分钟一对一面谈，后来还公开推文感谢“feedback is a gift even when it’s critical”。这操作，简直是把独立研究机构直接拉进CEO级战略对话。

从这个角度出发时SemiAnalysis已不再是单纯的“newsletter”，而是AI半导体生态的战略情报枢纽。其影响力通过专有数据模型 + 高频媒体曝光 + 双边客户服务三重放大，直接服务于硅谷的工程决策和华尔街的亿级交易。

现在对冲基金和资管机构做AI/semiconductor仓位时，SemiAnalysis的月度ChipBook和专有数据已经是标准配置——idea generation、thesis validation、portfolio tracking全靠它。报告一出，经常直接带动股价波动和数百亿capex调整。 hyperscalers规划自定义ASIC、GPU采购、数据中心电力，都得看它的供应链拆解。已经不是“参考”，而是直接左右决策。

这就是典型的“非传统0到1”：没名校EE PhD，没大厂背景，就靠自学+数据驱动+独立思考，从匿名博客干到让NVIDIA CEO和AMD CEO都得认真对待的程度。硅谷和华尔街现在都默认——想搞清楚AI硬件真实节奏，先看SemiAnalysis和Daylan说了什么。

一个人能把独立投研做到最极致的地步估计也就是这个状态了。

[MeidasTouch @MeidasTouch]

Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA) faked a phone call for roughly 90 seconds after being asked about Speaker Mike Johnson’s comments regarding potential Social Security cuts.

The phone's screen remained visible, with his cheek inadvertently tapping different parts of the display.

[Macro_Lin ｜ 市场观察员 @LinQingV]

Citron Research's Andrew Left was convicted on 13 counts of securities fraud last week for using his public platform to publish misleading reports while trading against his own recommendations.

SemiAnalysis yesterday published "Lights Out" to institutional clients, calling delays on 800V HVDC and CPO. Related stocks across the US, Taiwan, and Japan dropped double digits within hours.

But their own report from late May (Inside the 800VDC Revolution Part 1) clearly states that the CSP-led ±400V path is on track with no delays, completely independent from Nvidia's timeline. They know there are two separate 800V paths. They chose to present only the one that would cause maximum panic.

This is the second time in weeks. Last round was the Vera Rubin DRAM story, same playbook, same result. Market crashed, then recovered once people read the details.

Morgan Stanley responded today saying the delay narrative doesn't match their supply chain checks.

If SemiAnalysis or affiliated parties profited from the panic they manufactured, the distance between this and what Left went to prison for is a matter of degree, not kind.

SEC Whistleblower: https://t.co/ENFpJjDONw

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 US inflation rises to 4.2%.

[李老师不是你老师 @whyyoutouzhele]

重庆“虐狗事件”持续引发关注后，歌手曹格在社交平台发帖称“今天我就为了重庆和 bobo （视频中的宠物狗）而活”，疑似支持重庆动保志愿者。

评论区有网友提到“好多关于重庆和小狗的帖子发不出来”，也有网友留言祝重庆现场顺利。