Football Bettors

Perspective to help you follow and keep up with everything important across the NFL.

[Football Bettors @fbbettors]

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[Football Bettors @fbbettors]

Russell Wilson last season in *11 games*:

45 20+ yard attempts (14th most)
21 30+ yard attempts (5th most)
7 40+ yard attempts (9th most)

Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Tim Boyle and Tommy Devito combined in *17 games*:

37 20+ yard attempts (23rd most)
12 30+ yard attempts (25th most)
3 40+ yard attempts (29th most)

Giants games went 6-11 to the under.

Certainly will be a much different offense, with way more down field attempts with Russ at QB.

[NFL @NFL]

BREAKING: QB Russell Wilson signing with Giants on 1-year, $10.5M guaranteed deal with a chance to earn $21M.

(via @rapsheet, @tompelissero, @mikegarafolo)

[Football Bettors @fbbettors]

Inside the UFL: Expert Takes on All 8 Teams Before Week 1

https://t.co/ViVeUyXjbj

[Adam Chernoff @adamchernoff]

Shows are live now.

[Football Bettors @fbbettors]

To me this is the biggest side story of the Bengals now that the Chase and Higgins deals are done.

This looks like it will be the first full and uninterrupted offseason for Joe Burrow...

[Football Bettors @fbbettors]

Bengals have to find a way to get the Chase/Higgins deals done soon. As great as Joe Burrow has been, he has NEVER had an uninterrupted preseason.

2020: Preseason cancelled due to COVID
2021: Burrow coming back from ACL, played 3 snaps
2022: Appendix rupture, missed all preseason
2023: Calf strain second practice of camp, missed all preseason
2024: Chase (WR1) holdout, Burrow sat after Pre week 1 opening series

It's lead to slow start, after slow start, after slow start...

2020: 0-2-1
2021: 2-1
2022: 1-2
2023: 1-2
2024: 0-3

Just give him and the offense a drama free, uninterrupted offseason to prep!

[Mike Clay @MikeClayNFL]

Updated 2025 NFL Unit Grades

[Football Bettors @fbbettors]

Where do these numbers come from?

1. Took aggregate power ratings (6 sources) at the end of last season and updated for QB injuries or changes.
2. Updated for free agency roster changes using different grading sites (2 sources)
3. Created a point spread for every game in the upcoming season
4. Converted point spreads to vig free money lines
5. Took the sum of wins for each team

[Football Bettors @fbbettors]

Post free agency update:

These are the six biggest increases in team power rating and projected win totals since the start of the offseason.

[Football Bettors @fbbettors]

NFL Free Agency Breakdown: Winners, Losers & Surprises - Q&A https://t.co/6SKbzEVtUl

[Football Bettors @fbbettors]

@Nate_Tice Can you filter out the DET and LAR games? Would guess those two games alone made a huge difference to the numbers?

[Football Bettors @fbbettors]

NFL Free Agency: Hits, Misses, and Changes in Odds https://t.co/EeCbBwC08l

[Football Bettors @fbbettors]

My optimistic counter points would be...

Similar to how Belichick copied Fangio in the 2019 Super Bowl causing McVay to freak out and overhaul his offense, Spagnulo copying Schwartz in the 2023 Super Bowl is now causing Shanahan to do the same.

After Spags went like 70% man in the Super Bowl, teams were willing copiers this past regular season. 49ers saw man 48% of snaps which was the most ever for a Shanahan offense. They never had an answer.

Obviously being the most injured offense in football did not help, but the Deebo trade and Juice release make a lot of sense if the path forward is switching to a ton of 12 and moving away from 21.

I could see their answer to teams playing more man and dropping more into coverage more often against them being to draft a guy like Tyler Warren and line him up often across from George Kittle.

I am not a huge CFB guy, but it seems like the answer to spread defense at the college level is often 12 from the gun? Those two guys with Jennings and Aiyuk (when healthy) and McCaffrey (hopefully healthy) sure would put defenses crowding the middle with smaller bodies in a bind.

I also wonder how much of a possible offensive philosophy shift is being driven by Macdonald and now Kubiak being in the division? Macdonald has given this scheme fits, and Kubiak knows it so well. If the two of them working and practicing together every day now create a better defensive blueprint to beat it, Shanahan seems to be at a big disadvantage. A philosophy shift could counter that.

Of course it could be winter and this is a desperation scramble to undo past mistakes/whiffs and hang on to Purdy, but I don't know...I don't think this is a white flag from Shanahan.

[Sigmund Bloom @SigmundBloom]

One of the underreported angles of FA so far is that winter is coming for the 49ers franchise arc

[Football Bettors @fbbettors]

@MikeClayNFL Sunday unit grades for comparison.

[Football Bettors @fbbettors]

Offensive Line Season"—as it was dubbed in Chicago two weeks ago during the NFL Media conference call—has concluded (for now), with the Bears overhauling their interior offensive line.

Drew Dalman, the fourth-highest-graded center last season, joins a revamped unit alongside another top-10 left guard, Joe Thuney, and Jonah Jackson at right guard.

I like all these moves. It's Johnson building the foundation like the Lions did upfront.

So, what’s the outlook?

The Bears certainly needed the help. Last season, they were abysmal at running the football between the tackles, ranking in the bottom three of every major rushing category.

There’s no reason they shouldn’t take a significant step forward in 2025.

Pass protection, however, remains a question mark.

Caleb Williams was sacked on 12% of his pressured dropbacks—the highest rate in the league. Yet, according to @benbbaldwin’s offensive line grades, the Bears' pass protection was actually above average. The same holds true in ESPN's Pass Block Win Rate metrics.

Ask most fans, and they’d tell you it looked much worse. But much of that pressure was self-inflicted by Williams rather than a result of poor offensive line play.

That should improve this season, thanks to the upgraded interior line and Ben Johnson’s ability to scheme receivers open more effectively—and more quickly—than Williams’ offensive coordinators did in 2024.

But there’s a problem...

The Bears face an absolutely brutal schedule in 2025, which could limit their potential upside.

In aggregate power ratings, the Bears finished 2024 at -3.4 (meaning they were 3.4 points worse than an average NFL team).

Hypothetically, if Johnson, Thuney, Dalman, and Jackson collectively add 3.5 points to the team’s rating, the Bears would now project as a league-average team.

However, their schedule remains a major obstacle.

The Bears are projected to win just 7.76 games in 2025, in large part due to facing the second-toughest schedule in the league. Their average opponent is rated 1.18 points better than an average team, and their road schedule is even worse—opponents are 2.67 points better than an average team.

As a result, there are only six games where the Bears are likely to be clear favorites based on the point spread.

As exciting as this is for Bears fans—especially given the parallels to Johnson’s explosive Detroit offense—expecting everything to click immediately, against this schedule, is a tall order.

[NFL @NFL]

Bears agree to three-year, $42M deal with C Drew Dalman. (via @RapSheet)

[Football Bettors @fbbettors]

If Aaron Rodgers goes to Pittsburgh, there will be plenty of discussion about his performance in 2024.

Claims he is "back" will sound something like...

"Rodgers played every game and, despite dealing with injuries and controversy at every turn, had his best season since 2021 in yards, touchdowns, TD/INT ratio, and led a Jets offense that finished 17th in EPA/play and success rate."

As a long-suffering Jets fan, here’s something to keep in mind…

His season-long stats were heavily inflated by garbage-time numbers.

He had the second-most passing yards of any QB in the league in the fourth quarter.

31% of his yards and 31% of his touchdowns came in the final 15 minutes.

And no, this wasn’t about being "clutch."

It was about the Jets constantly playing from behind. They led in just 7 of 17 games entering the fourth quarter—four of those by two points or fewer.

The point I’m emphasizing is this: aside from the Patriots and Texans games, the Jets never built strong leads through Rodgers' passing. The offense was slow, sluggish, and restricted all season.

More than half of Davante Adams’ 2024 yards came in the final five games.

I question Rodgers fit in Pittsburgh too. If they keep George Pickens alongside DK Metcalf, it feels like they’re trying to replicate the Eagles’ offense?

After all, the only team that threw more deep sideline passes than Pittsburgh last year was, in fact, Philadelphia. Pittsburgh similarly spend last year forcing defenses to stack the box, then taking shots on contested catches.

That's not Rodgers game at all.

He had the third-lowest intended air yards per throw of any QB in the league last year and the fourth-quickest time to throw. It's just not who he is anymore.

So, is he really going to fit into this offense and start taking deep drops to push the ball down the sideline?

I don't think so.

I don't trust Arthur Smith to adjust his system to fit his personnel either.

I have my doubts.

[Football Bettors @fbbettors]

@JaequanFranks @adamchernoff I don't know enough to say, but the upside of what he brings on either side seems to make a ton of sense for NE. There is WR depth down the board too if they elect to go a different direction. I would not be too excited about getting Kupp. Injury risk seems high.

[Football Bettors @fbbettors]

The New England Patriots' defense dropped significantly from 3rd in yards per play allowed in 2023 to 17th in 2024. Their EPA/play allowed fell even more dramatically, from 8th to 30th.

This was the impact of transitioning from Belichick to Mayo.

Key injuries also played a major role.

Christian Barmore missed significant time. Ja’Whaun Bentley and Oshane Ximines landed on IR, while Kyle Dugger was dealing with an injury worse than publicly disclosed all season. It was a mess.

New England also faced the second-most difficult preseason schedule in 2024.

Everything hit at once.

Now, after today’s additions, this season feels like a defensive reset.

Milton Williams was one of the most highly touted free-agent defenders, grading out as the second-best interior pass rusher in 2024. If Barmore returns in 2025 (still uncertain), this could be an elite interior pass-rushing duo.

Robert Spillane ranked as the 8th-best linebacker against the run in 2024, while Harold Landry ranked 7th. Both address a major issue for New England last season and will work under Mike Vrabel—someone who knows the position better than anyone.

Carlton Davis is a versatile cornerback, ranking in the top 30 against both the pass and the run at his position. He was also the 7th-best CB in passer rating allowed in man coverage last season. Pairing him with Christian Gonzalez (and more importantly, easing the burden on CB1) creates a strong cornerback duo.

There’s also no question that Vrabel provides a higher coaching floor for the defense compared to Mayo. But what about the schedule?

The Patriots go from facing the 2nd-most difficult preseason schedule in 2024 to the 5th easiest in 2025, based on point spread ratings.

Projected opposing quarterbacks include:

Bryce Young
(Browns QB?)
Geno Smith
(Giants QB?)
(Steelers QB?)
Joe Burrow
Derek Carr
Baker Mayfield
(Titans QB?)
Justin Fields (twice)
Tua Tagovailoa (twice)
Josh Allen (twice)

This slate is far more manageable than last season’s, giving the Patriots' defense a much better opportunity to suffocate opponents. I expect this unit to be significantly improved.

[Evan Lazar @ezlazar]

#Patriots new-look defense, per reports:

EDGE: Landry
DT: Williams 
DT: Barmore (health?)
EDGE: White 
MLB: Bentley
WLB: Spillane/Tavai
Field CB: Davis 
Boundary CB: Gonzalez 
FS: Dugger
SS: Peppers
Nickel: M. Jones (?)

[Football Bettors @fbbettors]

@JaequanFranks @adamchernoff For sure, the bar for what they need to overcome has definitely been lowered today.

[Football Bettors @fbbettors]

Doing it now. All will be summarized in a newsletter later this afternoon.

[loubigs @loubigs1]

@adamchernoff @fbbettors Love the content Adam

Working on a bears write up after today’s activity?

[Football Bettors @fbbettors]

Never underestimate the importance of a good nose tackle.

[Brandon Shoemaker @FFRelevant]

@fbbettors Won’t ever catch Adam sleeping on the importance of a nose tackle.

[Football Bettors @fbbettors]

@ImBrianLeFevre I agree.

[Football Bettors @fbbettors]

Amid a flurry of QB moves, the importance of this move shouldn't be ignored.

Ford is the best run stopper available right now and the Rams defense needed the help. They were 29th in yards per rush allowed and 21st in rush defense success rate last season.

Their young defense clicked towards the end of the year, but Ford helps in a big way.

This Rams team continues to stack pieces.

[NFL @NFL]

Rams signing Poona Ford to a three-year deal worth up to $29.6M. (via @TomPelissero)