Paul Ashworth

Chief Data & Modelling Economist
Capital Economics

[Paul Ashworth @FCVMacro]

@Birdyword @LevyAntoine https://t.co/nluSDWy2BF.

[Paul Ashworth @FCVMacro]

@RobinWigg It does look pretty generous. FOMC has nominal GDP growth at ~4.7% for next year. A matching 4.7% increase in the monetary base next year would only be worth $250bn. $40bn per month is $480bn per year. So either purchases do drop off next April or the M0/GDP ratio will rise.

[Paul Ashworth @FCVMacro]

@paddyhirsch Hi, I replied yes to Cooper

[Paul Ashworth @FCVMacro]

@DonFSchneider You're not including tariff revenue in the other offsets right?

[Paul Ashworth @FCVMacro]

@JosephPolitano @Birdyword I was encouraging my university-age sons to start a dropshipping business last night to arbitrage the canada and US prices on Temu. It could be like prohibition, but hopefully with less guns.

[Paul Ashworth @FCVMacro]

@MarkJCarney So you're okay with canadian consumers paying double what consumers in Europe and the US pay for milk?

[Paul Ashworth @FCVMacro]

@DLeonhardt Also, the UK went left.

[Paul Ashworth @FCVMacro]

@tobi US seizures of fentanyl at the northern border last year amounted to 43lb. So about a quarter of my body weight. Seizures at the southern border were 21,100lb.

[Paul Ashworth @FCVMacro]

@EconBerger Sorry, I was talking about the 5 year benchmark revision to gdp rather than the annual benchmarking of payrolls.

[Paul Ashworth @FCVMacro]

@EconBerger I'd say 2023 won't be changed much from what we have now - either up or down,

[Paul Ashworth @FCVMacro]

@EconBerger The last benchmark revision was for 2023, released 12 months ago, which covered up to 2023 q1.

[Paul Ashworth @FCVMacro]

@EconBerger I wouldn't still be hanging on to the hope a massive downward revision would justify the recession call some have been pushing for the past couple of years

[Paul Ashworth @FCVMacro]

@EconBerger And the GDP data are all chain-linked now, so revisions tend to be smaller than they were pre-1996

[Paul Ashworth @FCVMacro]

@spomboy https://t.co/r8veu5ztt9 It was exactly in line with what the CBO predicted. It's bigger than last year because the Treasury reversed its student loan cancellation hit in August 2023, which half the teenage scribblers in the consensus presumably didn't realise.

[Paul Ashworth @FCVMacro]

It's July people. Auto production always goes haywire in July because of annual retooling shutdowns. But the effects are always fully reversed in August.

[Paul Ashworth @FCVMacro]

@fcastofthemonth We emailed the Fed on motor vehicle assemblies and they admitted there's an error.

[Paul Ashworth @FCVMacro]

@Djr2145 The 6m ave of the PCE change in those components. But the weights are so small for most of them that it only affects the third dp.

[Paul Ashworth @FCVMacro]

Our post-CPI estimate that the core PCE deflator increased by 0.19% m/m in June has, post-PPI, been cut to only 0.12% m/m. In addition, we think that May’s increase could be trimmed from 0.08% to 0.05%. That would be enough to pull the annual core PCE inflation rate down to 2.5%.

[Paul Ashworth @FCVMacro]

September rate cut nailed on at this stage.

[Paul Ashworth @FCVMacro]

PPI hospital prices increased by only 0.1% m/m in June and the massive 1.3% m/m surge in May was revised down to a 0.6% gain. In addition, PPI physicians prices fell by 0.4% m/m in June. Portfolio management prices only increased by 1.0% m/m.