Fedhabit

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[Fedhabit @fedhabit]

1/ People are calling Ethena dead because TVL collapsed.

That’s too lazy.

What actually happened looks less like protocol death and more like the unwind of a very reflexive trade.

[Fedhabit @fedhabit]

Cardano is running into a problem most crypto projects never reach. Its founder is losing influence, and that was always the goal.

Over the last two weeks, Cardano's largest NFT marketplace shut down. Its biggest analytics platform, TapTools, entered a shutdown process after losing key leadership. Several treasury proposals failed to pass, including Cardano Summit 2026, which missed approval by less than 2%.

Charles Hoskinson publicly warned that more ecosystem projects could fail before conditions improve.

Then he posted a few words: "I'm taking a break."

What's interesting is what happened next. Nothing stopped. The chain kept producing blocks. Developers kept shipping. The Leios testnet is still scheduled for June. The roadmap is still moving.

That sounds normal. It's actually unusual.

Most crypto ecosystems depend on a founder, a foundation, or a company to keep things moving. Cardano spent years trying to build something different. A system that could function without Charles Hoskinson.

2026 is the first real test of whether that works.

The bearish view:
The ecosystem is losing builders faster than governance can respond.

The bullish view:
The ecosystem is proving it can survive without a central decision maker.

Both can be true at the same time.

The market already knows whether Cardano can build. The question now is whether Cardano can coordinate. And that might be the harder problem.

[Fedhabit @fedhabit]

@Cardano is running into a problem most crypto projects never reach. Its founder is losing influence, and that was always the goal.

Over the last two weeks, Cardano's largest NFT marketplace shut down. Its biggest analytics platform, @TapTools , entered a shutdown process after losing key leadership. Several treasury proposals failed to pass, including Cardano Summit 2026, which missed approval by less than 2%.

@IOHK_Charles publicly warned that more ecosystem projects could fail before conditions improve.

Then he posted two words: "I'm taking a break."

What's interesting is what happened next. Nothing stopped. The chain kept producing blocks. Developers kept shipping. The Leios testnet is still scheduled for June. The roadmap is still moving.

That sounds normal. It's actually unusual.

Most crypto ecosystems depend on a founder, a foundation, or a company to keep things moving. Cardano spent years trying to build something different. A system that could function without Charles Hoskinson.

2026 is the first real test of whether that works.

The bearish view:
The ecosystem is losing builders faster than governance can respond.

The bullish view:
The ecosystem is proving it can survive without a central decision maker.

Both can be true at the same time.

The market already knows whether Cardano can build. The question now is whether Cardano can coordinate. And that might be the harder problem.

[Fedhabit @fedhabit]

@Deepakproptradr Coming soon Deepak bhai...

[Fedhabit @fedhabit]

BTC is at $73.5K this morning. One day left in May.

Yesterday's options expiry is behind us. The positioning that had been influencing price action through the week has largely cleared. No expiry. No major positioning overhang. Just buyers and sellers.

What hasn't improved:
Spot BTC ETFs recorded another day of outflows yesterday. More than $2B has left these products since mid-May, the longest outflow streak since the products launched. That doesn't mean institutions are dumping crypto. It does mean they are not stepping in aggressively every time BTC dips. Earlier this month, ETF demand was one of the strongest arguments for the recovery. Right now, it isn't.

What matters now:
The May close. BTC spent most of the month defending the mid-$70K range. Now it heads into the final trading day sitting near the lows.

That puts the focus on one question: are buyers willing to step in before month-end? Or does June begin with BTC still searching for support?

What the structure says:
$76K is resistance. $73K to $74K is the current demand zone. BTC is sitting right in it. If buyers defend this area, a reclaim attempt is still possible. If not, attention shifts toward $70.6K.

Levels from here:
Above: $74.2K, $76K, $78.5K
Below: $72.8K, $70.6K, $68K

[Fedhabit @fedhabit]

BTC is at $61.5K this morning.

The 200-week moving average sits right here around the $60K to $61K zone. The February cycle low sits in the same area. Two major reference points are converging in the same zone.

BTC has only tested this area a handful of times in its history. Each time, it became one of the most important levels of that cycle.

Yesterday's jobless claims briefly gave the market a reason to breathe. Claims came in softer than expected and BTC bounced from the lows before giving most of it back. The market reacted.

Today's jobs report is that catalyst.

A weaker labour market could revive rate-cut expectations and give risk assets some room. A stronger labour market keeps the higher-for-longer narrative alive. Either way, the market gets new information today.

What makes this moment interesting:

This isn't just another support level. It's one of the few long-term levels that Bitcoin investors, traders, and institutions all watch. That doesn't guarantee that the price holds. It just means everyone is looking at the same chart.

Levels from here:
Above: $63.8K, $65K, $68K
Below: $60K, $57K, $52K

The market is sitting on one of the most important support levels on the chart. The next few sessions will tell us whether buyers agree.

[Fedhabit @fedhabit]

BTC is around $64K this afternoon. A week ago, the market was debating whether $76K could hold. Today, BTC is sitting nearly $12,000 lower.

What changed:
The market has stopped looking for reasons to buy dips. Now it's looking for where the selling ends. The $70K level broke. Then $68K broke. Now BTC is testing the mid-$60Ks, an area not visited since the early stages of the April recovery.

What makes this selloff different:
The S&P 500 hit its 19th all-time high of 2026 this week. BTC is down roughly 50% from its October ATH. Capital is not leaving risk assets altogether. It is specifically leaving crypto.

What matters next:
Tomorrow's jobs report. Not because payrolls matter directly to crypto. Because the Fed still matters more than crypto narratives. A strong labour market keeps higher-for-longer alive. A weak one raises recession concerns. Neither automatically creates a bullish setup for BTC. Then CPI June 10 and FOMC June 17. Three macro events in 13 days that will decide whether June looks different from May.

What the structure says:
$65K is the first level buyers need to defend. If it holds, BTC gets a chance to stabilise. If it breaks, the market starts looking toward $62K and then $60K, some of the last major supports before the market starts questioning whether this is still just a correction.

Levels from here:
Above: $65K, $68K, $70K
Below: $62K, $60K, $57K

[Fedhabit @fedhabit]

In 2020, Michael Saylor made a decision that looked either visionary or reckless depending on who you asked.

He took a struggling software company and turned it into the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder.

Strategy now holds 843,706 BTC, accumulated at an average cost of $75,699 per coin. With BTC around $67K, the position is now underwater on paper.

Last week, something changed.

Strategy sold Bitcoin for the first time in nearly four years. 32 BTC, worth roughly $2.5M, sold between May 26-31 to fund dividend payments on its preferred stock. The last time they sold was during the FTX collapse in December 2022.

The amount is financially irrelevant. 32 BTC is 0.004% of their stack. But the market paid attention anyway.

Here's why this matters:

Strategy's business model depends on Bitcoin appreciating faster than the cost of capital used to acquire it. For years that trade looked brilliant. Today, the market is testing it.

The 32 BTC sale was not a strategic exit. It was a disclosed obligation tied to preferred stock dividends. Strategy still holds $900M in USD reserves and continues to have access to capital markets.

But the discussion has changed. The question is no longer whether Saylor believes in Bitcoin. Everyone knows he does. The question is how resilient the model remains if BTC spends an extended period below Strategy's average cost basis.

843,706 BTC is roughly 4% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist. Strategy is not just a company anymore. It is part of Bitcoin's supply structure. And when the market starts questioning the strength of that structure, even symbolically, prices react.

[Fedhabit @fedhabit]

BTC is at $67.3K this morning.

The interesting part is not the price. It's the divergence.
S&P near record highs. Nasdaq near record highs. European equities strong. BTC down roughly 12% on the week. This is not a broad risk-off move. This is crypto-specific weakness. Capital is finding better places to go.

What's driving it:
Strategy sold Bitcoin for the first time in nearly four years this week. Only 32 BTC, but the symbolism hit harder than the number. Mt. Gox transferred $739M on-chain yesterday. Neither is the real story by itself. Both hit sentiment at the wrong moment.

The bigger issue: this is no longer a leverage flush. Most of the excessive positioning got cleared weeks ago. The market is now testing actual spot demand.

What matters next:
Friday's jobs report. Not because payrolls matter to crypto directly. Because they matter to the Fed. A weak number raises recession concerns. A strong number keeps rate-cut expectations pushed out. Neither is an obvious bullish catalyst.

What the structure says:
$70K is gone. BTC is now in the high-$60Ks for the first time since early spring. This is where buyers need to prove they exist. If they don't, attention shifts toward $65K and then $60K.

Levels from here:
Above: $68K, $70K, $72K
Below: $65K, $62K, $60K

[Fedhabit @fedhabit]

BTC is at $70.3K this afternoon. The $72K to $74K zone that buyers were defending last week is gone.

Now the market is sitting on the next major level. $70K.

What changed:
The ETF story got worse. US spot BTC ETFs have now seen roughly 10 consecutive sessions of outflows, with close to $3B leaving over that period. Earlier in May, ETF demand was one of the strongest arguments for a recovery. Right now it's one of the biggest reasons BTC is under pressure.

What makes this selloff different from previous ones:
BTC is falling while AI and chip stocks continue making new highs. A few months ago, both traded as risk assets. Today, capital is clearly choosing one over the other. BTC isn't just competing with cash anymore. It's competing with every other place investors can put risk capital.

What matters this week:
Friday's jobs report. The market is trying to answer one question: is the economy slowing enough to justify easier policy, or is inflation still high enough to keep the Fed stuck? Weak jobs adds to the stagflation read. Strong jobs pushes rate cut expectations further out. Neither outcome is particularly clean for BTC heading into FOMC on June 17.

What the structure says:
$70K is the first level that can realistically produce a stronger buyer reaction. It's psychological, technical, and the last clear support before the high-$60Ks. If it holds, BTC gets a chance to stabilise. If it breaks cleanly, attention shifts toward $68K and then the low-$60Ks fast.

Levels from here:
Above: $72K, $74.2K, $76K
Below: $68K, $65K, $60K

[Fedhabit @fedhabit]

BTC is around $73.1K this afternoon. June has started exactly where May ended: weak.

May closed negative. For most of last month, the entire structure depended on BTC holding the mid-$70K range. It didn't.

The $76K level broke, and BTC failed to reclaim it before the monthly close. The Tom Lee signal from Consensus did not trigger. Three straight positive monthly closes would have made the bear-market argument much weaker. Instead, BTC closed May below the level it needed.

What drove the reversal:
ETF flows weakened sharply in the second half of May after being one of the strongest parts of the April recovery. May closed with $2.3 billion in net outflows, the largest monthly outflow of 2026. That doesn't mean institutions are gone. But the dip-buying support was clearly not as aggressive as it was earlier in the month.

Macro didn't help either. PCE closed the month at 3.8% headline and 3.3% core, still well above the Fed's 2% target. Inflation is still sticky. Growth is slowing. The Fed still has little reason to ease. BTC doesn't like that setup.

What the structure says now:
$76K is resistance. $72K to $74K is the current demand zone. If buyers defend this area, June starts with a base-building attempt. If not, the market starts looking toward $70.6K and then $68K.

The next macro catalyst worth watching: FOMC on June 17. Fed futures are pricing a 98% probability of a hold. That is the first date that could shift the liquidity narrative.

Levels from here:
Above: $74.2K, $76K, $78.5K
Below: $72K, $70.6K, $68K

[Fedhabit @fedhabit]

BTC is around $73.4K this morning.

Earlier this week, $76K was the line buyers needed to defend for the monthly structure to stay intact. Today BTC is trading nearly $3,000 below it.

What changed:

PCE inflation came in yesterday and did not give markets a reason to believe easier policy is around the corner.

At the same time, growth expectations continue to soften. Markets are now dealing with the same problem they have been wrestling with all month:

Inflation is not cooling fast enough.
Growth is not accelerating enough.
And the Fed still has little reason to ease.

Iran also escalated again. US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian retaliation, and warnings of stronger responses to come. The peace deal optimism that briefly pushed BTC to $77K is looking fragile.

BTC has struggled in that environment all year.

What matters now:

The monthly close is two days away. A week ago the conversation was whether BTC could hold $76K and secure a third consecutive positive monthly close. Now the conversation is whether buyers can reclaim it at all.

Options expiry also lands today. That increases the odds of sharp moves in both directions into the weekend.

What the structure says:

$76K has flipped from support into resistance. The market is now testing the $73K area. This is the first place buyers need to show up. If they don't, attention shifts toward $70.6K.

Levels from here:
Above: $74.2K, $76K, $78.5K
Below: $72.8K, $70.6K, $68K

The level that mattered broke.
Now the question is whether month-end closes with BTC reclaiming the structure... or confirming the breakdown.

[Fedhabit @fedhabit]

BTC is at $75.8K this afternoon.

The $76K level that was holding the monthly structure just broke.

For the past few weeks, the question was whether buyers could defend $76K. Right now, they are not.

What matters now:

Core PCE inflation drops tomorrow. The Fed's preferred inflation measure. After hot CPI and PPI prints, the market is not expecting an easy number.

The scenario to watch: sticky inflation combined with slowing growth. That is the worst combination for risk assets. No room to cut. Liquidity stays tight. BTC has struggled every time this narrative shows up.

Iran talks are ongoing but nothing is signed. Oil risk is still part of the inflation picture.

What the structure says:

$80K is resistance. $76K has now flipped from support to resistance. BTC is testing the next demand zone. If buyers reclaim $76K quickly, this becomes a fake breakdown. If not, the market starts looking lower into month-end.

Levels from here:
Above: $76K, $78.5K, $80K
Below: $74.2K, $73.5K, $70.6K

Macro to watch:
PCE tomorrow. Options expiry on Friday. Monthly close on Sunday.

[Fedhabit @fedhabit]

BTC is around $76.6K this afternoon. Slightly lower than yesterday, still stuck in the same range.

What changed:
Iran moved from headlines to active negotiations. Talks are happening in Doha. But this is not a signed deal. Until something concrete comes out, this is still optimism.

What got worse:
The Fed narrative shifted again. Last week, the debate was about when cuts might come.
Now the conversation has moved back to whether rates may need to stay higher for longer if inflation does not cool. Fed Governor Waller said this week that rate hikes cannot be ruled out.
BTC does not break cleanly in a tight liquidity environment. That has been true all year.

What to watch this week:
Core PCE drops Wednesday. The Fed's preferred inflation measure. If it comes in hot, the higher-for-longer narrative gets louder. If it cools, BTC finally gets some macro breathing room.

Then options expiry on Friday.

Positioning is heavy across the $75K to $82K range. Price can get noisy into month-end.

Then the May close on Sunday.
BTC needs to hold $76K for three consecutive green monthly closes.
Still above that level, but barely.

What the structure says:

$80K is resistance.
$76K is the level buyers have to defend.
Lose it, and the conversation shifts back toward $73.5K and $70.6K.

Levels from here:

Above: $78.5K, $80K, $82K to $83K
Below: $76K, $73.5K, $70.6K

[Fedhabit @fedhabit]

Stablecoins vs banks.
Most Indian traders read the GENIUS Act as an American story.

It isn't. The US has now formalised stablecoins through law. But banks are reading it differently. They see competition.

A regular US savings account pays around 0.01% annually. Crypto platforms have offered 4% to 5% on USDC balances. That gap is the whole fight.

Banks are not worried about crypto ideology. They are worried that deposits move to a product that looks faster, pays better, settles globally, and does not need a physical branch.

That is why the yield part became so important. The GENIUS Act bans stablecoin issuers from paying yield directly. That is not a small detail. It protects the banking deposit model.

Now the India angle.
The rupee has been under pressure. India imports most of its crude oil in dollars. Every time the rupee weakens, holding savings only in INR feels more expensive for anyone thinking globally.

Indian crypto users already understand this. For many of them, USDT is not just a trading pair. It is dollar exposure without a foreign bank account.

That is exactly why regulators care. India's UPI network processed over ₹300 lakh crore in FY2025-26. The country already has one of the strongest digital payments networks in the world. Now imagine dollar stablecoins becoming just as easy to hold, send, and use.

If stablecoins become too easy and too widely held, they can pull savings away from the rupee, increase dollarisation, pressure capital controls, and make monetary policy harder to manage. Central bankers have been warning about exactly this risk.

So the US and India are worried about stablecoins for different reasons.
US banks are worried about losing deposits.
India is worried about losing control over rupee liquidity.

And that tells you how important stablecoins have become. They are no longer just crypto trading tools. They are becoming dollar accounts for the internet.

[Fedhabit @fedhabit]

BTC is around $77K this afternoon. Still above the $76K zone, still below $80K.

What changed over the weekend:

Trump announced Saturday that a US-Iran peace agreement has been "largely negotiated, subject to finalization." BTC had fallen to $74,192 on Friday, a one-month low, before bouncing back to $77,300 on the news. Polymarket now has 62% odds on a deal by May 31 and 70% by June 30. $154M has been traded on that contract.

Iran has been the single biggest macro weight on BTC since February. Closed Hormuz means elevated oil, elevated oil means sticky inflation, sticky inflation means the Fed can't cut. If the deal closes, that chain could reverse.

But "largely negotiated" is not signed. No follow-up negotiation calendar exists. Until something is finalised, this is optimism, not resolution.

What hasn't changed:

US Treasury yields are still elevated. The 10-year recently traded around 4.6% to 4.7%, its highest area since early 2025. BTC is getting relief from geopolitics, but not a clean green light from liquidity. That is why $80K is still hard to reclaim.

What matters now:

Month-end options expiry is coming. With BTC stuck between $76K and $80K, positioning around this range becomes important. The next few sessions can get noisy. The May close still matters.

Tom Lee's point at Consensus was simple: if BTC closes May above $76K, it would mark three straight positive monthly closes. That is hard to square with a clean bear-market setup. BTC is still above that level but not by much.

Levels from here:
Above: $78.5K, $80K, $82K to $83K
Below: $76K, $73.5K, $70.6K

Iran deal closing is the single catalyst that could finally give BTC the macro tailwind it has been missing since October. Six days left in May. A lot to resolve in a short window.

[Fedhabit @fedhabit]

BTC is around $77.6K this morning. The macro picture is mostly the same.

Iran risk has cooled a little. Oil has come off the worst levels, but the situation is not resolved. Yields are still elevated. The US 10-year is still sitting around the 4.6% area. So BTC is getting some relief from oil, but not from liquidity.

That is why price is still stuck in the same place: above $76K, but below $80K.

What matters into month-end:

Options expiry is coming up next week, and open interest around the $75K to $82K zone makes this range important. That makes the next few sessions more volatile than the price action suggests.

The May close is still the bigger signal.

Tom Lee's point at Consensus was simple: if BTC closes May above $76K, it would mark three straight positive monthly closes. That is hard to square with a clean bear-market setup. BTC is still above that level for now. But not by enough to relax.

What the structure says:

$80K is resistance now. $76K to $77K is the floor being defended. BTC has stabilised after the flush, but stabilisation is not the same as fresh demand. The reclaim still has not happened.

Levels from here:
Above: $78.5K, $80K, $82K to $83K
Below: $76K, $73.5K, $70.6K

Iran cooling helps.
Yields are still the problem.
Options expiry can add volatility. But for the monthly close, the number is still $76K.
Hold that, and the bull case keeps structure.
Lose it, and the market starts looking back toward $73.5K and $70.6K.

[Fedhabit @fedhabit]

BTC is around $77.7K this afternoon. The panic has cooled a little but control has not returned yet.

What changed:

Iran headlines improved.
Donald Trump said he expects the conflict to end “very quickly”. Oil reacted immediately. Brent saw its biggest drop in two weeks as supply risk eased.

Why this matters:

Oil → inflation → liquidity → BTC

Lower oil = softer inflation expectations
Softer inflation = better liquidity expectations
And BTC still trades on liquidity more than anything else.

What hasn’t changed:

US 10Y still ~4.6%
Fed still tight
No aggressive rate-cut expectations

So one macro pressure eased. The bigger one is still intact.

Structure:

$80K = resistance. $76K–$77K = key floor.

BTC stabilised after the flush.
But stabilisation ≠ fresh demand.

The bigger signal:

If May closes above $76K then we have 3 straight green months. That doesn’t fit clean bear market behaviour. But we’re barely holding that level.

Levels:

Above: $78.5K → $80K → $82–83K
Below: $76K → $73.5K → $70.6K

[Fedhabit @fedhabit]

BTC is around $77.3K tonight. Still holding above the $76K zone with the May monthly close getting closer.

Tom Lee said at Consensus 2026 that if BTC closes May above $76K, it would mark three straight positive monthly closes, a pattern he argued does not usually show up inside a bear market. BTC is still above that level for now. But with yields, inflation, and Iran still in play, it is not guaranteed to stay there.

What has been driving the pressure:

US Treasury yields are still the main problem. The 10-year pushed toward 4.6% to 4.7%, its highest area since early 2025, as inflation, oil, and debt concerns kept pressure on bond markets. When yields rise like that, risk assets struggle.

ETF flows also weakened. After weeks where ETF demand was one of the strongest arguments for the recovery, reports pointed to around $648M in ETF outflows weighing on sentiment. That does not mean institutions are gone. But it does mean they are not absorbing every dip with the same aggression.

Then came the leverage flush. BTC dropped to a May low near $76.7K earlier this week and the broader crypto selloff triggered more than $650M in liquidations. Positioning is cleaner now than it was two weeks ago. But cleaner positioning is not the same as fresh demand.

What the structure says now:

$80K has flipped from support into resistance. The $76K to $77K zone is the current floor. BTC is sitting on it right now.

If this area holds into the monthly close, the bull case still has structure. If it breaks cleanly, the conversation moves back toward $73.5K and $70.6K.

Levels from here:
Above: $78.5K, $80K, $82K to $83K
Below: $76K, $73.5K, $70.6K

[Fedhabit @fedhabit]

India is one of the hardest countries to actively trade crypto in.

Not because crypto is banned.

Because the tax structure makes frequent trading brutally inefficient.

Here’s the math most people don’t run:

30% flat tax on every profitable trade. Not your net annual gain. EVERY. SINGLE. WINNING. TRADE.

Make ₹1L on BTC and lose ₹1.2L on ETH.
Net P&L : -₹20,000.
Tax owed : ₹30,000.

You lost money and still owe tax.

Then there is 1% TDS on every sell above the threshold. That is not your final tax liability. It is capital withheld upfront, recovered only when you file your ITR.

For an active trader doing 30 to 40 transactions a month, this becomes a constant cash-flow drag.

And losses still cannot be offset. No crypto loss offset against crypto gains. No long-term holding rate.

No cleaner structure for someone who held for 3 years vs someone who held for 3 days.

Budget 2026 did not reduce the 30% tax. It did not rationalise the 1% TDS. It did not allow loss offset.

What changed instead was compliance.

From April 2026, reporting rules got tighter. Crypto exchanges, wallet providers and intermediaries now have to report transaction details more formally to tax authorities.

So the direction is clear:

India is not banning crypto. It is making sure every transaction is visible, while keeping the tax structure hard. That is why so much volume has moved offshore. Not because Indian traders are unsophisticated. Because the tax math at home is ugly.

The frustrating part is not only the 30% tax. Other countries tax crypto too. The frustrating part is a system where active participation itself gets punished.

And now every transaction is easier to track.

India has one of the largest crypto user bases in the world. The policy still treats crypto less like a market to regulate and more like behaviour to discourage.

[Fedhabit @fedhabit]

BTC is around $77K this afternoon. The $80K line that held multiple times last week is now gone.

The CLARITY Act cleared committee. BTC bounced toward $82K. Then spent the next few sessions giving most of it back.

What happened:

US Treasury yields moved higher again. The 10-year pushed around 4.6%, its highest level since early 2025, as inflation, oil, and debt concerns kept pressure on bond markets. When yields move like that, risk assets struggle. BTC is still being treated like a risk asset in this environment.

Then came the flow pressure.

Last week saw close to $1B in fund redemptions after weeks where ETF demand had been one of the strongest arguments for the recovery. That does not mean institutions have disappeared. But it does mean they are not absorbing every dip with the same aggression.

Then came the leverage flush.

BTC dropped to a May low near $76.7K and the broader crypto selloff triggered heavy liquidations.

What the structure says:

$82K to $83K rejected again. $80K, which held multiple times last week, has now broken. $78.5K and $77.5K did not hold cleanly either. BTC is now trying to stabilise around the mid-$70Ks.

Last week, buyers needed to prove they could break $82K. They failed. Now they need to prove $75K is still demand. Until $80K is reclaimed, this is no longer a breakout attempt.

Levels from here:
Above: $78.5K, $80K, $82K to $83K
Below: $75K, $73.5K, $70.6K