FedResearch

The analysis and conclusions set forth are those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or the Board of Governors

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The authors estimate the decline in the valuation of mortgage servicing rights held by banks in a time of economic stress. https://t.co/UP883ILHlQ #FEDSNote #EconTwitter

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New #FEDSPaper: Slow Learning: https://t.co/K9qnsOSHfl #EconTwitter

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Scale matters: China is much larger than during the first China Shock, so a given proportional shift in trade flows implies a larger global reallocation. The shock is also broader geographically and increasingly overlaps with advanced economies. (2/2) https://t.co/f4AbdsrkXX

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ICYMI What is different about “China Shock 2.0”? It is not just an export surge: exports are rising much faster than imports reflecting more self-reliant strategy & pushing China’s trade surplus to unprecedented levels relative to the world economy. (1/2) https://t.co/f4AbdsrkXX

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ICYMI New #FEDSPaper: The Causal Effect of Debt on Interest Rates: https://t.co/phEo80ZtYc #EconTwitter

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New #FEDSPaper: The Role of Inflation Perceptions in Consumer Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the Euro Area: https://t.co/sp3pSLGcNe #EconTwitter

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ICYMI New #FEDSNote: Federal Reserve Discount Rate Press Releases in the 1960s and 1970s through the Lens of Monetary Policy Communications: https://t.co/9ZcmfisScQ #EconTwitter

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New #FEDSPaper: The Fragility of Perfectly Safe Digital Money: https://t.co/FT0jnIJNdd #EconTwitter

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New #FEDSNote: How U.S. Bank Stock Prices Respond to Geopolitical Risk: https://t.co/4Fwt1lGxVX #EconTwitter

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The pace of change in the federal funds rate helps predict future changes. #FEDSPaper: https://t.co/wUoZDAkkEI #EconTwitter

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The more worried middle-income households cut non-essentials and shift toward essentials. Low-income budgets don't have the slack to do more than trade down, and high-income households cut their spending but do so whether or not they are worried. (3/3) https://t.co/tigAbc3M2y

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The authors analyze 125,000 US households' transactions to measure how 2025 tariffs affected spending. Tariffs passed through 15-20% to retail prices, raising affected-good prices 1-2%. But households cut spending by 3 to 4 times the price increase. (1/3) https://t.co/tigAbc3M2y

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The burden falls hardest on low-income households facing the largest pass-through & welfare loss. Everyone cuts spending & trades down to cheaper varieties. But some pull back further & a linked sentiment survey traces that extra cut to tariff worry. (2/3) https://t.co/tigAbc3M2y

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New #FEDSPaper: Financial Liberalizations, Booms, and Crashes: https://t.co/Gt7qhWuxfm #EconTwitter

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Alternative scenarios often proved more accurate than the baseline forecast. New #FEDSPaper catalogs 1,265 'what-if' exercises from 1968-2020, tracking how Fed staff prepared for demand shocks, supply disruptions, and financial crises. https://t.co/4cBAL1xzl4 #FedResearch

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New #FEDSPaper: Skill and Efficiency in the U.S. Mutual Fund Industry: https://t.co/KKmWbNyogL

[FedResearch @FedResearch]

Scale matters: China is much larger than during the first China Shock, so a given proportional shift in trade flows implies a larger global reallocation. The shock is also broader geographically and increasingly overlaps with advanced economies. (2/2) https://t.co/f4AbdsrkXX

[FedResearch @FedResearch]

What is different about “China Shock 2.0”? It is not just an export surge: exports are rising much faster than imports, reflecting a more self-reliant strategy and pushing China’s trade surplus to unprecedented levels relative to the world economy. (1/2) https://t.co/f4AbdsrkXX

[FedResearch @FedResearch]

New #FEDSNote: Federal Reserve Discount Rate Press Releases in the 1960s and 1970s through the Lens of Monetary Policy Communications: https://t.co/9ZcmfisScQ

[FedResearch @FedResearch]

Call for papers: Global Research Forum on International Macroeconomics and Finance. Paper submissions due by May 31, 2026:  https://t.co/XArmuVZHX8 #EconTwitter