Fedtedthefedder

[Fedtedthefedder @fedtedthefedder]

@thurmanlady1 @jodell1281376 @atrupar Uh. Gonna need you to spell out what, precisely, the deceit here is. Who is being deceived, by what behavior, about what?

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@drvolts Doesn't the Times regularly test different headlines to see which generate the most clicks? I'm pretty sure different people see different headlines sometimes, and it's not uncommon at all for headlines to change.

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@drvolts Legit question: who on earth are these cool smart kids you're talking about?

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@geunsmeyer @drvolts Culture and individual personality absolutely feedback on one another, yes.

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@Charta_77 Nah, plenty of good social psychologists work at business schools. Just never trust any academic who's given up actual research to become a Public Intellectual.

[Fedtedthefedder @fedtedthefedder]

@iamlisalogan @RottenInDenmark What the...

The stroop effect is A COGNITIVE PHENOMENON. It's just that contrasting modes of information interfere with one another. So like, if you see the word "blue" written in red ink, and have to say what color ink it is, it's very difficult. It has nothing to do with race

[Fedtedthefedder @fedtedthefedder]

@GregTSargent This is frustratingly facilitated by extant polling models, which assume Trump is magic and will ALWAYS inspire huge R turnout. This is built in; the analyses don't allow R voters to be affected by low enthusiasm.

[Fedtedthefedder @fedtedthefedder]

@drvolts @RadioFreeTom Um, the ghost of the land put the tongue on the floor, obviously?

Like, sure, maybe the cleaning lady was just lying to make the whole thing more mystical, but nah: the ghost of the land did it. This was made pretty clear.

[Fedtedthefedder @fedtedthefedder]

@drvolts That didn't happen. What happened was, season 2ish-3 and the last season both sucked, with just generally bad writing. The series answered every mystery, except the one that could literally have no satisfying answer: "Why is the island magic?"

[Fedtedthefedder @fedtedthefedder]

@brianbeutler @GregTSargent @SimonWDC I mean, a huge issue here is that all the poll models assume Trump will heavily outperform his observed levels of support, because so many turned out for him in 2016 and 2020. But that assumption is not necessarily safe in 2024, and if it isn't, the polls aren't accurate.

[Fedtedthefedder @fedtedthefedder]

@NormOrnstein @KevinMKruse Is it Gingrich or Limbaugh? I mean, obviously Gingrich was the one who affected the institutions directly, but Limbaugh's the one who actually caused republicans to fully turn the corner.

[Fedtedthefedder @fedtedthefedder]

@larisimilitude @RottenInDenmark I made a mistake and got sucked into the comments. I posted three times in replies. Two of them talked about race; one of them did not (and was the third one I entered). Guess which two were never posted?

[Fedtedthefedder @fedtedthefedder]

@adriandaub @InBedRightPod Loved this episode, but you brought up men's relative lack of friendships but never debunked it. My (lay) understanding is that it's a real fact, but clearly masculine norms are themselves to blame. Do you come back to this? Seems real relevant to this "geek" type.

[Fedtedthefedder @fedtedthefedder]

@drvolts I actually wonder if this is part of the explanation? If they have a sense of "looking stuff up is so easy; anyone can do it," then what even is the point of a columnist? And the answer they settle on is, it's someone who just intuitively knows What's Important To Talk About.

[Fedtedthefedder @fedtedthefedder]

@RottenInDenmark this is a fascinating example of how they automatically think of "black people" as an anonymous mass, not a group of individuals. they're taking their dumb "white christians civilized black people" talking point and struggling to apply it on the person-level, and they can't.

[Fedtedthefedder @fedtedthefedder]

@RottenInDenmark They DESPERATELY need examples of the left being biased/stupid/immoral so they can keep believing the two sides are the same.

Like when I saw Sunstein give a talk, and he kept insisting autism antivax was mostly found on the left, even though it wasn't.

[Fedtedthefedder @fedtedthefedder]

@RottenInDenmark Of course, now there's a new breed of databro researcher who is trying to gain status by wrecking the careers of people like Ariely (except actually mostly women). But this isn't addressing the real problem, because they rely on splash too. Just a different kind.

[Fedtedthefedder @fedtedthefedder]

@RottenInDenmark I'm one of those pixie-dust woo-woo psychologists, but I sympathize with these people. Speaking up (without complex stat models "proving" fraud) doesn't work, because the bigshots got stature with splashy results, and so they don't want the field to reward anything but splash.

[Fedtedthefedder @fedtedthefedder]

@Lollardfish @RottenInDenmark And the other thing, of course, is that for every woman hounded out of the field by databros (who might well be correct, though their stance on 'good research' is incoherent) there's five researchbros skating along just fine.

[Fedtedthefedder @fedtedthefedder]

@Lollardfish @RottenInDenmark This is... not true? It's nearly impossible to get an academic psych position. You're correct that the incentives are still wrong: being a magic researcher whose results are always significant and counterintuitive. But there isn't exactly a land of plenty.