0xFefe

Data Alchemist and tech enthusiast.

[Paul S. Conyngham @paul_conyngham]

https://t.co/bpa3HHt8Mg

[0xFefe @fefezooo]

@MiningTk Bon… Il est temps d’employer des formules de politesses

[World Scholar @WorldScholar_]

Architecture is the body of cities, the heart of cultures and the soul of the people.

Here's one wonder from every major architectural style... 🧵

1. Gothic — Strasbourg Cathedral, France (1439)

[0xFefe @fefezooo]

@splenlumal Fake account, scam

[CEA @CEA_Officiel]

#Fusion🔥| 1ère mondiale pour l'énergie de fusion !

👀Nouveau record obtenu dans le tokamak WEST, opéré sur le centre CEA de Cadarache : il a maintenu un plasma de fusion chaud de plusieurs dizaines de millions de degrés pendant 22 minutes avec 2,6 gigajoules d'énergie injectée.

[0xFefe @fefezooo]

Just submitted my shot at the @spleniumai presale on https://t.co/cydGKWOhks! 🤞 Splenium AI is redefining DeFi with seamless swaps and AI-powered trading. Rapid adoption and surging interest prove this will dominate @avax! 🔺 Secure Your Spot Now at https://t.co/ItF9Zd7pFz

[signüll @signulll]

can you imagine tim walz delivering this speech?

america has this uncanny ability to surface & select the inevitable individuals when history demands it.

[CryptoAmsterdam @damskotrades]

Return to utility in the next stage of Crypto?

My shower thoughts on where the space might head.

The cries for utility tokens to shine—not just memes—have echoed across Crypto Twitter for months.

But often, these utility tokens are just ideas, visions, or unused products without revenue. That’s why many argued that meme coins are just a more honest version, making no promises, while utility tokens often end up being meme coins with unfulfilled promises.

People feel disappointed and ashamed of the space, as it seems we’ve failed to bring our ideals to life after a decade.

I believe this meme coin cycle is a stage in our own vaporware and shitcoin speculation environment and cycle we had in the past decade—something we’ve taken too far.

And once we take it too far, there’s no way back.

Over the last 10 years, the valuation curve of crypto projects—those without products, just ideas, visions, or no revenue—has risen steeply to unsustainable levels.

Initially, the public could bet and win on this vaporware speculation. But as market efficiency improved, projects launched faster, and pre-investments reached absurd valuations before any delivery and public launch, making profit impossible for the public.

I think we’ve entered the ultimate blow-off top phase of vaporware betting: meme coins—the final and most honest form of vaporware, making no promises and available to the public.

Hot air speculation on steroids.

L2s with no products or users, only accessible to private investors at hundreds of millions in valuation, versus dog pictures hitting millions.

Neither has a product, but one is honest and available to everyone, while the other still has to prove itself—often failing to attract users even when a product is eventually released.

That’s why I believe these two sectors (utility and memes) are more closely related than most think. I think that this meme madness is the final blow-off phase of the last decade’s shitcoin speculation environment that we’ve lived and breathed.

We’re seeing the shift.

People are tired of empty promises, skeptical of new ideas due to past failures, and—most importantly—unable to profit from speculation anymore.

The ultimate hot-air speculation phase is here: memes.
No more betting on promises that won’t deliver, no more dead chains. Just the final form of our vaporware speculation—pictures of dogs.

Once we took it too far, there’s no way back.

Once the market learns it doesn’t work anymore and can’t make money on it anymore, it will learn from it—and, at some point, stop betting on it again.

The market will have to evolve.

Utility tokens will return, in my opinion—but not in the form we’re used to.

I believe we’re shifting toward a market that demands real products, revenue, users, and actual token utility.

Two reasons:

1. The Fundamental Stages of Our Cycle

2017 Era:

> Vibes: “We’re going to build so many cool altcoin products” (decentralized YouTube, etc.).
> Public can still easily profit, as private valuations are lower, fewer tokens exist, and the market is less efficient.

2019-2021 Era:

> Vibes: Skepticism grows as many previous cycle projects fail.
> More and higher private raises.
> The market becomes meta-sensitive, with more options to bet on.
> DeFi and on-chain products with real web3 native users have their moment.

2023-2025 Era:

> Vibes: We took vaporware speculation too far—ridiculously high valuations everywhere. No profit for the public anymore.
> No products, no users, no revenue—yet billion-dollar valuations.
> The public can only buy these high-priced launches, failing to profit.
> The ultimate vaporware product cycle = memes. No expectations to fail, and public access.
> But now we’re taking memes too far: Celebs launching scam tokens.
> The president launching a meme token for himself and his wife.
> The public starts to lose trying to bet on low-cap memes.
> Millions of new tokens are launched every month.
> People risk their and others' health to gain attention.

The public can’t make money on utility anymore because we took it too far—giving extreme valuations based on whitepapers.

After this cycle, we can’t make money on memes either—because millions of tokens launch daily, celebs scam everyone, and people are harming others just to shill their own meme coin.

Once there’s no money to be made, there’s no reason to push the trend forward.

Nature needs to heal.

2025-2030+ (Speculation)

> We took ‘utility’ speculation too far. Then we took ‘meme token’ speculation too far.
> The market now demands real products, revenue, and users.
> Good ideas alone won’t get projects massive valuations anymore.
> The shitcoin betting era of the past decade is done. After peak dilution and insanity, we slow down. No more millions of tokens every few days.
> Utility season returns—but on steroids—no more whitepaper betting.

I don’t think memes will die after this cycle, but I think the idiotic way we’re doing it now won’t work anymore. We’ll return to a more select basket of ‘real memes’—OG tokens and a few of the strongest new ones. I even think a form of SocialFi/Tokenization will survive.

Disclaimer:
- All speculation and shower thoughts
- I'm not saying this happens now, as in today, I think this will be the direction for after this cycle and probably for the next 5-10 years

Reason 2: Bitcoin super cycle.

I think this is the line that is going to change everything we are used to in terms of cycles and dynamics.

The fundamentals are exploding, but the room for upside within our usual cycle structure and diminishing returns is shrinking.

// SuperCycle (real?????)

Many older, successful assets with strong fundamentals started with a period of diminishing returns. Until something fundamentally changed, breaking the pattern: their Supercycle started.

1. S&P: America becomes the world superpower
2. Apple: Introduction of the iPhone
3. NVIDIA: AI ramping up
4. Bitcoin: Governments turning pro-Bitcoin, ETFs, BlackRock, strategic Bitcoin reserves?

I don't know if it will happen this cycle or the next one, but I think it'll happen soon (within 5 years probably) and looking at the state of our Altcoin speculation environment and cycles, it makes even more sense.

Before understanding where I want to go with this post about Altcoin speculation as we know it and what I expect for the next 5-10 years, I need to explain quickly how Bitcoin influences the dynamics between Bitcoin and Altcoins.

We have seen a vastly similar dynamic between Altcoins and Bitcoin over the last cycles, and pretty much repeating Crypto cycles in general: 4-year cycle, Altseason, etc.

If we look at the chart below, we can see that Altcoins suffer against Bitcoin (lose BTC value//Bitcoin dominance increases) in 4 out of the 5 cycle phases.

1. Bitcoin bear (steeply down) -> Bitcoin dominance up
2. Bitcoin sideways after bear -> Bitcoin dominance up
3. Bitcoin rises towards the old highs -> Bitcoin dominance up
4. Bitcoin 1st leg into new highs -> Bitcoin dominance up
5. Bitcoin 2nd leg into new highs -> Bitcoin dominance down -> Altseason

Bitcoin season, money mainly flows into Bitcoin, and most Altcoins consistently lose value against Bitcoin and perform horribly. Some Altcoins will do well, but few tokens and niches will do so. High PvP environment for Altcoins

Altcoin season: money flows into Altcoins, Altcoins gain market share, and the market (even though nowadays still meta-sensitive) becomes less pvp: more can go up simultaneously, and rallies are more sustainable.

Some observations we can make:
> Bitcoin strong and going up; usually bad for Altcoins
> Only after Bitcoin accepts new highs do we hit a certain point where Altcoin season starts and dominance drops. Something happens probably attention or fomo wise for people to step in.
> Bitcoin is trading in a very structured cycle format.

My main point here now is that:

When we break it:
The drop in dominance is every cycle at a certain point tied to Bitcoin price action below the diminishing returns resistance. If Bitcoin breaks above it and starts a super cycle, it's macro price action will drastically change, strengthen, and become more sustainable. If the structure of Bitcoin's macro price action changes, so does the dynamics between Bitcoin, cycles, and altcoins, which we were used to.

I believe breaking this line will send Bitcoin dominance much higher, reclaiming a large share and changing Altcoin speculation as we know it forever.

Many see a super cycle as making everyone rich, but most hold zero Bitcoin and will get absolutely roasted as dominance surges. This will wipe out 99.9% of altcoins—they're just vaporware.

I don't think altcoin speculation will disappear based on this speculation. We've always seen small baskets altcoins perform well against BTC even though Bitcoin dominance was rising. The general environment is just a lot more PvP; most people lose money and miss out on the hot narratives.

If Bitcoin dominance goes much higher, I think the balance between projects declining vs. outperforming will be even more drastic than what we've seen so far.

Fewer will do well, most will do poorly for a longer period than we’re used to, and many won’t survive.

This lines up with my earlier thoughts that this meme cycle is the final altcoin speculation blow-off phase in a larger (decade-long) shitcoin speculation cycle we've experienced. And we're moving into an environment where Bitcoin thrives longer; dominance grabs back attention, and Altcoin dilution/madness peaks and returns to a smaller basket of projects where the market demands more.

As long as we don't break the diminishing returns line:
If we don't break it, Bitcoin won't be able to make fresh highs anymore (after this cycle). Without fresh highs, no attention and money inflow to fuel a new altseason.

So either way, imo the dynamics of BTC <> Altcoins will change after this cycle.

Once more:
- Just shower thoughts (very speculative)
- No expert here, just some thoughts around my idea based on charts.
- I'm not talking about now or this cycle; more about the macro direction of crypto speculation.
- I think we might feel this shift already in the cycle now, but I still think there's a high probability of an Altseason coming (bitcoin dominance down).

[Reece @reecethebrah]

Wine drunk is peak male performance

When you drink whisky or tequila you end up doing dumb sh*t

Beer just makes you sloppy

But wine is the perfect balance

You feel good but you’re in full control

You’re horny but not aggressively so

This is how the Roman Empire spread.

[The Culturist @the_culturist_]

What are some battles that changed the course of history?

Western culture faced obliteration several times — and survived by a near miracle.

The 5 most critical battles, starting in 490 BC... 🧵

[0xFefe @fefezooo]

@daksinga Let's see

[0xFefe @fefezooo]

@0x_Discover Up X

[0xFefe @fefezooo]

@nobsfud

[0xFefe @fefezooo]

@nobsfud Waiting 😎

[Shelpid.WI3M @Shelpid_WI3M]

This random GPT prompt landed me $310k by pure accident

Anyone (even if u’re brand new) can set it up and start stacking cash

Don’t miss out—here’s the full breakdown 🧵👇

[del in 24 hrs]

[0xFefe @fefezooo]

@nobsfud yee

[JetStart 👾 @0xStartt]

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[0xFefe @fefezooo]

@_GrindAcademy