felstar

EUR/USD futures trader | building in public.
🇫🇷

[felstar @felstarfx]

Running a 1,600 day backtest on NQ.

Not looking for a holy grail.

Looking for the truth about my edge — where it holds, where it breaks.

Will share what I find.

[felstar @felstarfx]

@skurtMemphis bah la solution c’est faire jouer les jouers dans des « box » insonorisés comme sur cs la solution existe Riot s’en br juste

[felstar @felstarfx]

@seeseenvu @Abou_flm comment t’es pas marrant toi

[felstar @felstarfx]

Month 32/53 — August 2024. NQ.

6 trades · 67% WR · +2.57R exp · 0 stops · +15.4R

The yen carry unwind cracked the market open. Violent, one-way moves — what my system feeds on.

July: +0.13R, dead market. August: +15R, violent one. Same rules.

21 months left.

[felstar @felstarfx]

Month 31/53 — July 2024. NQ.

8 trades · +0.13R exp

My weakest month in a long time. Slow market, 5 stops.

And I STILL didn't finish red. Two +3R trades kept a bad month above water.

Surviving your worst months is what compounds.

22 months left.

[felstar @felstarfx]

Month 30/53 — June 2024. NQ.

9 trades · 22% WR · +0.45R exp

22% win rate. And still green.

Four breakevens where the system pulled me out before bad trades became losses. Two winners carried it.

Low win rate means nothing if winners are 3x losers.

23 months left.

[felstar @felstarfx]

@mxximex C'est top bravo

[felstar @felstarfx]

Month 29/53 — May 2024. NQ.

8 trades · 38% WR · +0.90R exp

Choppy month, low win rate, saved by 3 solid trades. Closed with a +4.38R short.

Same profile every tricky month: win rate drops, 2-3 A+ setups carry everything. The ratio is the edge.

24 months left.

[felstar @felstarfx]

Month 28/53 — April 2024. NQ.

10 trades · +0.87R exp

Market corrected hard. I flipped to shorts and my 3 biggest trades were all shorts down the leg.

January I was full long. April full short. Same system, opposite direction, both green.

25 months left.

[felstar @felstarfx]

Month 27/53 — March 2024. NQ.

7 trades · +0.84R exp

"Really nothing happening" — literally what I wrote in my notes. Market consolidated at highs.

One clean +5R carried it while the rest went breakeven. The system protects when there's nothing to take.

26 months left.

[felstar @felstarfx]

Month 26/53 — February 2024. NQ.

7 trades · 29% WR · +0.31R exp

Weakest month in a while. Second February in a row with a low win rate — starting to look like a seasonal pattern I need to watch.

Still green. Barely. But green.

27 months left.

[felstar @felstarfx]

Month 25/53 — January 2024. NQ.

9 trades · 78% WR · +2.62R exp

Strong start to the year. Second-best month of the whole backtest.

Clean rally, clear bias, took longs off M1 inversions. When the read is obvious, the system prints.

28 months left.

[felstar @felstarfx]

Month 24/53 — December 2023. NQ.

1 trade. +1.93R.

That's it. One trade all month.

Last December I overtraded a dead market and finished red. This year I took the single clean setup.

Knowing when NOT to trade is an edge.

29 months left.

[felstar @felstarfx]

Month 23/53 — November 2023. NQ.

13 trades · +0.58R expectancy

Full reversal from October — market rallied, every trade was a long.

My most active month. One entry off a 6.5pt stop ran +5.54R. Sniper precision on the M1.

Tight stops are the whole game.

30 months left.

[felstar @felstarfx]

Two BEs in two days on NQ.

Day 1 I cut a good trade early. Day 2 I held one properly and the market came back for me.

Same zero on the screen. Only one was actually a mistake — and knowing which is the whole job right now.

[felstar @felstarfx]

@TradebyAdi same no setup for me

[felstar @felstarfx]

Month 22/53 — October 2023. NQ.

11 trades · +0.75R exp

Market corrected all month. Every trade was a short.

More trades, smaller edge each — but I followed the bias down and stayed green.

The system doesn't care about direction. Only that there IS one.

31 months left.

[felstar @felstarfx]

@collapse_FX that is so real

[felstar @felstarfx]

232 backtested trades taught me one thing about myself: I cut winners too early.

Today, live on NQ — swept liq, tapped my H1 zone, M5 inversion, clean long. Then BE too soon and watched it hit target without me.

Zero loss. One habit to kill.

[felstar @felstarfx]

Month 21/53 — September 2023. NQ.

9 trades · +1.02R expectancy

Tricky month — mid and end of month were choppy, I got chopped up on the transitions.

But the M1 entry held even in a mediocre month. A green month when the read isn't clean is the real test.

32 months left.

[felstar @felstarfx]

Month 20/53 — August 2023. NQ.

9 trades · 67% WR · +2.91R exp · +26.2R

Best month yet. Everything clicked: I started entering off M1 inversions instead of M5.

Same setups, stops halved, R multiplied. One ran +7.05R.

Precision changes everything.

33 months left.