@TheGarrettOden Tariffs typically exclude agricultural products and raw food commodities / food stuffs (even in the case of sanctions !) coffee pricing has been a third rail for literally centuries of U.S. politics. I'm more worried about disruptions to dry goods, total shipping volume, FX
That piece is here ! And I maintain this optimism. Will be posting from my travels in Ethiopia this year beginning Sunday on IG
https://t.co/cNsM2x2iyr
i think i was actually thinking of his piece on ethiopia, but if you read between the lines of the kenyan piece it points in the same direction
1. declining production bc of climate change, shrinking ag land & competition from other crops
2. high demand that means prices don’t fall even as quality falls
3. institutional & structural rigidity that prevents the market from reacting & obscures price signal generally
these forces together push the average quality of coffee down while pushing the price up
4. (not mentioned in that piece) new processesing innovations, like yeast inoculation, infusion & various controlled fermentation techniques, offer low quality producers the ability to cheaply and quickly creating process-related flavour that’s very distinctive. these profiles are often popular with low-knowledge consumers, but if widely implemented they will tend to flatten variance between producing countries and regions
5. greater processesing precision + new & cost insensitive demand + falling volumes will mean that the very highest scoring & most interesting coffees are bid up pretty high and become luxury type goods. you can see this already happening.
all this together will mean that what is now a pretty diverse market will polarise — the low end will get more homogeneous as “raw” quality falls and processing becomes standardised. prices will rise for demand supply reasons. the top end will continue to get more and more expensive (and maybe slightly better)
christopher feran writes very knowledgeably about the micro-stuff (and has an optimism that i don’t really share), but the dynamics here discussed here in kenya are playing out at a large scale everywhere, and there’s no stopping them https://t.co/NtlaXqVW99
@ClevelandScene Except GTI's statement doesn't jive w/ SEC filings from Aug 2020, which show that George Management Ltd retained a 1% ownership stake in the retail and processing licenses and, through the acquisition, gained 1,223,014 subordinate voting shares in GTI https://t.co/4CdGuDKLdc
"trusted source of local independent news" @ClevelandScene deafening silence might have something to do with that settlement they signed https://t.co/QU0EAslHcq
@DCILY@sighsafterramen "Intervention" was actually referring to your comment re processing infrastructure. I have a hard time accepting that you've been paying attention to export regs and NGO activity as well as fundamental shifts in currency markets if this is your thesis
California law requires this posting to include a pay range.
Also, Sprudge should require pay as part of their job listings by default. They are a figurehead in coffee media and have the ability to make some positive change happen.
@sritson And then there's this whole thing called financing which hurts everyone particularly when rates go up, and then currency exchange rates for farmers/exporters 🫠. Good thread thank you