Fernando Gutierrez

Real estate operator running opportunistic deals across Europe. I write about the parts of AI in business that actually move money.

[Fernando Gutierrez @fernando]

1/ Three local models on a Mac mini handle the volume in my setup: press, emails, notes, documents. Parsing, enrichment, search.

Everything they produce gets stored in local databases.

Opus 4.7 only shows up at the end, on curated context.

24GB of RAM. Cost of electricity. Here's the architecture.

[Fernando Gutierrez @fernando]

Long tenant out. Market slow.

Soft leasing markets are where you buy, not where you complain.

Met the broker to fill the floor. Met the bank to buy the next one.

[Fernando Gutierrez @fernando]

@EllliotttB There never was

[Antonio García Martínez (agm.eth) @antoniogm]

The europoor meme can be funny, but it's also midwit and wrong.

As someone with both EU and US passports who's lived in both sets of elite poles (SF/NYC and BCN/BER/PAR), let me just give you the TLDR:

-The percent of GDP spent on welfare in the US is the about the same as the EU (smidge under).

-The effective tax rate in the coastal US is about the same as the EU (smidge under).

-Both are (former) middle-class societies where much of society feels the social contract is broken. In the US, elites abandoned the middle-class decades ago, and the well-to-do in states like CA/NY have reconciled themselves to paying almost half their paychecks and getting nothing in return, planning to insulate themselves from the suck by paying for private everything: neighborhoods, schools, medical care. If their earnings keep on rising, they're OK with it.

In France, that bourgeoisie hasn't been decimated yet, and they still expect (delusionally perhaps) basic social infra like schools to function (which is what these protests were initially about). The infra in Europe is a lot better than in the US, despite the GDP delta (New Yorkers can only dream of a subway like Madrid's). But that's clearly eroding in time, without the wage growth (or private social infra) to allow for a paid workaround.

-The free healthcare blah blah meme is fake: the public health systems in Europe have collapsed to the point it's mostly a public/private hybrid, for anyone with a solid paycheck, and fuck you if you're poor, go to the public system (which is the ER in the US). Guess what? In Europe you've got deductibles, in/out of network and all the same shit as in the US (though yes, the cost is still lower, though more or less correlated with wages).

-Boomers on both sides of the Atlantic are living in a dated lala land, but they vote to keep the system in place. In Europe it's legislation and printing money to prop up pensions; in the US, it's legislation and printing money to prop up housing prices and the stock market, which is the American 'free market' version of pensions. Rampant inflation and cost-of-living problems in both, with youth locked out of housing and living in precarity.

-Both are struggling with having been historically middle-class societies
US better positioned only because it has more economic growth (hello 80 hour weeks), and (obviously) leadership in critical fields like AI. But the foundational problems of an out-of-touch elite, incoherent immigration policy, and general social malaise that sees no meaning or purpose at the End of History is absolutely the same in both polities.

Americans who mock what's happening in Europe simultaneously believe some X mirage about what Europe is (and have never lived there), as well as don't understand what's going on in their own country. The French Revolution happened a few years after the American one, and once again, the two countries are echoes of each other, as similar countries tend to be. France is probably the most 'American' country in Europe, in all the republican senses of the word (and no the Yookay isn't in Europe).

[Fernando Gutierrez @fernando]

@NoLimitGains It doesn’t make much of a difference, but your math is wrong. Top 1% owns 30% and bottom 90% owns 33%

[Erik Voorhees @ErikVoorhees]

Republics and democracies fall, inevitably, because they enable the masses to vote for benefits from the state.

The charade of "free" stuff pulls, slowly or swiftly, the state into fiscal insolvency. Debt grows faster than the economy, which is mathematically unsustainable.

This process can be slow, or fast, but always occurs.

The best imperfect solution is to keep states both small and decentralized. Small so that the masses have less incentive and capability to draw from it, and decentralized so that failures of a state are localized and minimized rather than global and catastrophic. A well-educated populace that understands the virtue of markets and views the state with utmost skepticism is very helpful, and just as rare.

America until the 1930's did a good job of this. Switzerland today arguably still does.

America and France, and most or all of the others, are headed to the same destination. Voting will not change the game theory of the system (remember how Trump was going to reduce the government and then grew it larger than Biden?).

European and US bond markets will collapse and then these protests will look like child's play.

There is nothing that can be done to prevent it, nothing stops this train, alea iacta est

Optimists should hope and work for the smallest states possible to rise from the ashes of the large ones.

[Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @lugaricano]

The biggest, and stupidest, myth in European politics, particularly popular in France, is that Europe suffers the consequences of "austerity" and "neoliberalism". In the biggest 5 countries in Europe, more than half of the population makes its income from the state, less than half from the private sector. This is what makes the problem of reducing the welfare state so impossible: more than half of the voters are net recipients. No surprise that Italy's budget has not been balanced in 100 years, France's in 50 years (ooh la la, l'austérité!!):
-France: 30 million from the state versus 21m private sector workers. State spending is 57% of GDP, taxes more than half the economy. The budget hasn't been balanced in the lifetime of most French (since 1974).
- Germany: 35 million adults from the state, versus 34 million from the private sector. 10% of the population is registered as severely disabled. Public spending is over half of GDP. Germany has had a continuous budget deficit since 2019.
-Italy: 23 million from the state, versus 20.5 million private-sector workers. Public spending is 51% of GDP. Italy has had a budget deficit every year since 1925, for 100 years.
- Spain more people get their income from the state since 2024: 18.21 million from the public sector versus 17.9 million people working in the private sector. Since 2025, Spain also had more government employees than self-employed workers (autónomos) for the first time in history. State spending is at 45%, budget has not been balanced since 2007.
- UK: 54% of households now receive more in state benefits than they pay in taxes. State spending is 44.5% of GDP, taxes (40%) are at their highest since 1950, the budget hasn't been balanced since 2001, and 1 in 5 new cars is paid by the government through a bizarre state disability scheme (Motability).

[Fernando Gutierrez @fernando]

@davidalvarezdlt He leído a gente que afirma haber usado Instict para reclamar a empresas grandes cuando intentan agotarte. En mi lista de tareas tengo pendiente lanzarlo contra una telco pero no me he puesto aún

[Fernando Gutierrez @fernando]

@ymuchosmemes @grok is this the real logo of any entity?

[Fernando Gutierrez @fernando]

@audinversor @catalanensuiza En España el grueso de la inversión es de pequeños propietarios que son residentes. Una Lex Koller cambiaría poco.

[Fernando Gutierrez @fernando]

El problema de la vivienda es, en gran parte, un problema de pobreza. Los precios que la gente quiere/puede no son posibles porque hacer viviendas es más caro que eso. O subvencionas (mucho!) o hay que cambiar también otras variables porque la mayoría de la gente no genera el valor suficiente con su trabajo para pagar por todo el valor que hay que meter para construir su casa.

[Fernando Gutierrez @fernando]

@luenlafe @hernantoty @RamonEspinar @miguelromeroalh Esto! Cuando hablan del rescate de los bancos lo que no dicen es que los bancos de verdad colaboraron con el estado para rescatar a los bancos de los políticos. La banca no fue el problema, fueron las cajas de los políticos.

[Fernando Gutierrez @fernando]

@lunaticoin Veo tu apuesta y la subo a Yolanda Díaz llamando a la movilización contra el gobierno de España 😂

[Onda Cero @OndaCero_es]

❗ Yolanda Díaz: "Si hay que movilizarse contra el Gobierno, movilicémonos"

[Fernando Gutierrez @fernando]

@davidalvarezdlt La actividad económica está en las ciudades y el teletrabajo no lo arregla todo. Sobre todo es países tan presencialistas como España.

[Fernando Gutierrez @fernando]

Sí. La regulación protege mucho al inquilino pero con límites y una certeza absoluta para el propietario. Eso ha permitido el desarrollo de grandes propietarios que invierten mucho en el mercado porque saben lo que hay y lo que habrá. Aunque tampoco es perfecto. Que el alquiler sea tan buena solución hace que menos gente considere comprar y creo que para muchos sería una gran forma de ahorro como lo ha sido en España tradicionalmente.

[Fernando Gutierrez @fernando]

Construyo pero también especulo, esa malvada palabra. Esos pisos en rentabilidad no son rentables. Esas rentas antiguas a veces son más bajas que la propia comunidad del edificio. Al otro lado de esa venta a un malvado especulador hay un propietario jodido. Y el especulador muchas veces pierde dinero porque el problema era más gordo de lo que pensaba. Ese negocio específico yo no suelo tocarlo justo por eso, pero sirve una función. Sin especulador no hay liquidez y el propietario no tiene salidas. Sn salidas nadie alquila y los precios suben aún más. No todo el mundo puede o quiere comprar. El alquiler también tiene su sitio en el mercado y para eso los propietarios necesitan una mínima seguridad.

[Fernando Gutierrez @fernando]

Hago casas, en España y en Suiza. El problema en ambos países es la escasez. Es sencillo, cuando hay poco los precios suben. Y para que haya más el que las haga/arregle/invierta tiene que ganar dinero porque de algo tiene que comer, igual que tú. Y créeme que no se gana tanto como imaginas. Quién más gana, como en casi todo, es el estado

[Fernando Gutierrez @fernando]

@arrola @grok qué ha pasado con Guardiola?

[Fernando Gutierrez @fernando]

@arrola @edugaresp Las unidades de medida estaban en el programa de física, en economía estaban ocupados hablando de deuda pública que no hace falta pagar 🤦‍♂️

[Fernando Gutierrez @fernando]

Probably intentional so the buyer knows everything is new.

[Shawn Gorham @shawngorham]

$900k house AND the flipper was too lazy to remove the protective coverings off the appliances BEFORE pictures. Have Mercy

[Fernando Gutierrez @fernando]

@catalanensuiza Cada banco tiene sus ratios. Además si es para alquiler no puedes poner pilar 3a como parte de la aportación. En este caso en que sí vas a vivir no tengo claro cómo funciona porque parece que es un único inmueble (luego una hipoteca, no tres)