Thiemo Fetzer 🇪🇺🇺🇦 - same handle elsewhere

Accidental Economist. Prof at @warwickecon and @unibonn. Visiting Prof @GRI_LSE. Fellow @STICERD_LSE. ERC STG. CEPR @cepr_org & Associate Editor @EJ_RES.

[Thiemo Fetzer 🇪🇺🇺🇦 - same handle elsewhere @fetzert]

Asset monetization (tokenization), ever more pervasive passive demand for assets through index funds, combined with share class differentiation of ownership versus control effectively creates what may well become private control over what effectively may be perceived to be money supply. This requires the owners of control to uphold belief systems that underpin this passive demand, and one way to do that is to seek and expand private control over the platforms that steward attention (think: media ownership). I am deeply concerned that many economists engaging in discourse around wealth taxation are not aware of these developments.

[Thiemo Fetzer 🇪🇺🇺🇦 - same handle elsewhere @fetzert]

This is a longer thread to connect some dots. It is so obvious to some to understand what "went wrong" in 2000s/2010s but as I keep saying deeds matter more than words. I will try to relate some academic work that speaks to this. This is also about understanding...

[Thiemo Fetzer 🇪🇺🇺🇦 - same handle elsewhere @fetzert]

With AI we may now soon realise that: we have identified all human types/behaviors. There is nothing more to learn that can not be replicated with LLMs. I am hopeful that human ingenuity will proof us all wrong.

[Thiemo Fetzer 🇪🇺🇺🇦 - same handle elsewhere @fetzert]

Reallocation is the mother of games

[Thiemo Fetzer 🇪🇺🇺🇦 - same handle elsewhere @fetzert]

Yes we can, and yes — we must.

[Thiemo Fetzer 🇪🇺🇺🇦 - same handle elsewhere @fetzert]

We will have to "rewrite history" at scale… when I speak about these issues I highlight how we have been hit with a technology shock that was not paired with expansion of adequate training under high powered incentive and pressures, this was the most...
https://t.co/vPBRRQpGwA

[Thiemo Fetzer 🇪🇺🇺🇦 - same handle elsewhere @fetzert]

This strikes me as too narrow, the mechanism you describe is possible, but it treats the financial and institutional architecture through which AI is deployed as given. That architecture is precisely what is being contested (payment systems, monitoring clauses on data shield/privacy shield, attacks on ICC court etc.)... and open source/weights AI is basically at a level that makes it indistinguishable in terms of the speed at which it will be objectively deployed in society. What the US is banking on is the seamless integration into its tech stack (network effects), the risk of exploitation/weaponization of which is precisely what contributed to the MC14 moratorium to lapse.

[Thiemo Fetzer 🇪🇺🇺🇦 - same handle elsewhere @fetzert]

Yes we can, and yes — we must.

[Thiemo Fetzer 🇪🇺🇺🇦 - same handle elsewhere @fetzert]

T/S: Topologies of productive ignorance — between sector economic growth through noise filtering / “translation”

[Thiemo Fetzer 🇪🇺🇺🇦 - same handle elsewhere @fetzert]

So many draft replies… just not sure if this is the right community to engage in conversation and/or nudges with…

[Thiemo Fetzer 🇪🇺🇺🇦 - same handle elsewhere @fetzert]

The set of what is possible expands, the set what is impossible shrinks. What principles we impose on the social dimension of this development reveals much about how we conceptualize human agency and freedom.

[Thiemo Fetzer 🇪🇺🇺🇦 - same handle elsewhere @fetzert]

Security vulnerabilities are an essential part of the security infrastructure. As these go, suitable “replacements” need to be found. Good old "trust", anyone? Trust, but (delayed) verification?

[Thiemo Fetzer 🇪🇺🇺🇦 - same handle elsewhere @fetzert]

here is the marked up post with an added data layer https://t.co/jcNFJ1vNH6

[Thiemo Fetzer 🇪🇺🇺🇦 - same handle elsewhere @fetzert]

Every now and then it is useful to look back. In this article for The Globalist I provided a succinct overview of the incentive mix around Iran, now with added contextual data. In a high dimensional world, low dimensional narratives are dangerous -- yet they are pervasive...

[Thiemo Fetzer 🇪🇺🇺🇦 - same handle elsewhere @fetzert]

Evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence: they waited for the WTO moratorium on electronic transmissions to collapse before establishing a comparative advantage in intergalactic data exports.

[Thiemo Fetzer 🇪🇺🇺🇦 - same handle elsewhere @fetzert]

Very useful points

[Rafael Dix-Carneiro @dix_rafael]

🚨Understanding Migration Responses to Local Shocks

New version of paper with @borusyak and Brian Kovak!

1/6 Many papers find that local labor demand shocks have sizable effects on wages and employment, but surprisingly small or imprecise effects on local population.

[Thiemo Fetzer 🇪🇺🇺🇦 - same handle elsewhere @fetzert]

Worrisome

[Sam Greene @samagreene]

Back in November 2024 — and even until earlier this year — my analysis was that, while Trump was willing to sell out Ukraine, the payoff from normalizing relations with Russia was insufficient to cover the costs of capitulation.

I’m afraid the politics have shifted.

/1

[Kyle Handley @KyleLHandley]

🚨New Paper Alert🚨: Export controls aim to limit adversaries' access to military-relevant inputs. But firms, supply chains, and incomes adjust. The countries imposing controls pay a price too. Using new data, we quantify when and how they can be effective and thus whether the trade-offs are worth it. 🧵 1/

[Jacob Edenhofer 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 @edenhofer_jacob]

by corporatist players (see below).
Here is how I'd nest both intuitions. Start from clear pro-climate electoral activation, i.e. voters who visibly reward climate action and punish inaction. Governments then have electoral incentives to buy the consent of carbon-intensive