Tesla model 3 math. I bought my car in 18’ for $60k total with FSD. Got $7.5k back tax credit. ($2.5k in cal I didn’t qualify for) so $50k net. Sold the car for $46k 40 months of ownership $4k net cost. Never needed any service or cost. That’s $100 a month to drive a tesla. $tsla
On 2025 EPS of $30, $TSLA should be valued at no less than a 2025 P/E of 50x = $1,500 by 2025.
Discounting $1,500 to the present at 11.6% rate (assumes 10 yr Treas yld of 2.0%, 6% equity risk premium and 1.6x TSLA beta) implies a TSLA $1,000 PT within 6-12 mo ~50% upside.
5/ Biden EV tax credit will reduce $TSLA US prices by $7.5K/$10K
6/ Berlin opening will reduce TSLA prices in Europe by 15-20%
7/ Model A hatch will launch next year in Europe/China, which gets TSLA into <€25K segment
8/ 2022 FSD approval changes everything; ICE becomes obsolete
Retweeting. Why $TSLA remains my top position:
1/ $TSLA vols will grow 70%+ this year as Model Y ramps in China
2/ EV adoption is exploding, from 3% now to 25% by 2025
3/ TSLA prod’n capacity will double between now and 2022
4/ Cytruck launch in 2022 will add $2/sh+ to core EPS.
You can now BUY a depreciating asset with an appreciating asset 🤑
(This is genius from Tesla though, and I’d expect no other car company to do it first)