2,015 paper bets on my +EV model. Fixed stake, no real money.
$250.9k staked
+$10.0k realized, +4.5% ROI
Beat the closing price on 74% of bets
Estimated edges, not guarantees. The closing line says the prices were good. Follow to get in on the action
First logged play 📌
Josh Allen Over 29.5 pass attempts, Fanatics +110
Our fair price: -100 · Est. EV +5.1%
Patriots @ Bills, Sunday 1 PM ET. Logged before kickoff. We'll grade it against the closing line after the game, win or lose.
If anyone needs another #PrizePicks leg to add, Chigoziem Okonkwo u2.5 receptions is great right now. Devigged has this as follows:
2 leg prizepicks: 2% +EV
5-6 leg prizepicks: 8.5% +EV!
This game feels like it comes down to a lack of tactical preparedness on the US side. There doesn’t seem to be any clear plan in the final third and defensively there’s miles of space in front of the CBs. Hopefully second half adjustments make a difference
@JoshNorris I don’t know that the finishing has been great, both goals were shots that you’d expect most world class players to convert, but there’s a clear lack of defensive understanding. Both goals were balls that were cut back in front of the first CB and nobody filled the space
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