Kipa

Tomorrow’s markets, predicted today | @Polymarket focused

[Kipa @ffkipa4]

Polymarket: 81% that Democrat Scott Colom wins the Mississippi Senate seat.
His lead right now: 43 votes out of 945K counted.

I say Colom, ~78%. Fairly priced.
It comes down to ballots nobody has counted yet

Where the count stands (~96% in, 3 a.m. Central):

Colom (D): 462,821
Hyde-Smith (R): 462,778
Pinkins (I): 19,935

Hyde-Smith led most of the night. Colom passed her after Hinds County and majority-Black counties in the Delta reported.

What's left: ~44,000 votes by NBC's estimate. Hyde-Smith needs ~49% of them to catch up.

→ Hinds County (Colom 62K–15K so far) paused its count at midnight and resumes Wednesday
→ Colom's campaign says 10–15K affidavit ballots are still uncounted

The rules matter here:

→ Resolves once AP, Fox News and NBC all call the same candidate
→ If they don't, official certification decides
→ No runoff: plurality wins, so Pinkins' 2.1% can't force one

AP hasn't called it. Affidavit ballots can be cured until Nov 10.

What could make me wrong:

→ The last 44K leans more Republican than the count so far. Hyde-Smith's campaign says its internal numbers show her winning.
→ Many affidavit ballots get rejected. The 10–15K figure is Colom's own estimate.
→ A margin this thin invites lawsuits.

Rough math:
Colom: ~78%
Hyde-Smith: ~22%
Market: 81% Colom

A 3-point gap is noise, not an edge.
At 81¢ the market says 81%, and a win pays +23%. On the other side, Colom No at 19¢ pays +415%.

No edge on the winner. If there is one, it's in timing: this likely stays open until AP, Fox and NBC all call it.

Watch Hinds County's final tally and the AP call.

Does a 43-vote lead survive the affidavit ballots, or does Hyde-Smith claw it back?

[Kipa @ffkipa4]

PSG have 12 points from 4 games and the best goal difference in the league (+15).

Polymarket still gives them 8% to finish 9th-24th, i.e. miss the top 8.

My call: they make it, ~96%

How the market works: 36 teams play 8 games each. The top 8 skip the playoffs. Teams 9-24 play a playoff.

Yes = the team finishes 9th-24th. If a team clinches the top 8 early, it resolves No right away, so money can come back before the last matchday on Jan 27.

The bar: 8th place finished on 16 points last season (Man City). Real Madrid had 15 and finished 9th.

PSG are on 12 with Roma (H), Aston Villa (A), Como (A) and Galatasaray (H) left. If the bar is the same this year, a win and a draw is enough.

To miss the top 8, PSG would need about 2 points or fewer from those four games.

Treat every game as a coin flip with draws (50% win, 25% draw, 25% loss) and that happens ~4% of the time. PSG are better than that.

What could make me wrong:

→ A collapse: 2 points or fewer from four games
→ 15 points isn't a safe total. It was only 9th last season, so a 3-point run could still miss
→ A short run-in: Villa and Como are both away

Rough math:
PSG miss the top 8: ~4% (my range 2-7%)
Market: 8% shown, Yes 9¢

At 93¢, No pays +7.5% if I'm right.

Is 8% fair for a PSG collapse, or is it a long shot people overpay for?

[Kipa @ffkipa4]

@danikkk_wqs NVIDIA employees don’t even need to imagine something like this

[Kipa @ffkipa4]

Building a multi-billion-dollar company, reportedly having affairs with 3 women… Jensen Huang really knows how to multitask.

A fourth one before December 31? 49% chance on Polymarket

At this point, I’m just hoping I’m not next on his list.💀

Link to the markeе in the first comment⬇️

[Kipa @ffkipa4]

🚨JENSEN HUANG IS OUT AT NVIDIA!

After 33 years, the man who built the AI chip giant has stepped down as CEO.

Polymarket traders saw this coming.

NVIDIA confirmed his resignation on November 12, effective immediately.

CFO Colette Kress will serve as interim CEO while the board searches for a successor.

The timing is striking. Just days earlier, the board launched an investigation into reports involving Huang and a suspected FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE OPERATION.

The market saw massive activity:
→ $5.98M in volume on the November 12 contract
→ $22.4M+ across the broader resignation market

One important detail: Huang resigned, he wasn't fired. NVIDIA hasn't disclosed the reason for his departure.

Can NVIDIA maintain its AI dominance without the man who built it?

[Kipa @ffkipa4]

@danikkk_wqs great info. limits are my sore point

[Kipa @ffkipa4]

@smaaaaliy The worst thing is that it's true...

[Kipa @ffkipa4]

@smaaaaliy Agreed, now I’m curious to find out what other billionaires are up to

[Kipa @ffkipa4]

@cryptocinna I also want to be occupied in a similar way

[Kipa @ffkipa4]

@boardyai lmao, 100%

[Kipa @ffkipa4]

@boardyai Bro, after this news, I started learning Chinese. I don’t know how else to get his attention

[Kipa @ffkipa4]

@KyleDeWriter How does this ebaka manage to get everything done?

[Kipa @ffkipa4]

@mirnowq good info, thx

[Kipa @ffkipa4]

@Joyingeth This is truly incredible

[Kipa @ffkipa4]

@Luckyjlg5ir This is really useful info

[Kipa @ffkipa4]

@s4yonnara Thanks, I should have gotten around to this a long time ago

[Kipa @ffkipa4]

@DanleL_Nim I was incredibly surprised myself when I found out the score was 2-1

[Kipa @ffkipa4]

@cryptocinna I’m really looking forward to its release

[Kipa @ffkipa4]

@MallowIQ A?

[Kipa @ffkipa4]

Market: https://t.co/5hiM2xTMLk

[Kipa @ffkipa4]

@evgenia_vibes It seems many people have acquired a few gray hairs)

[Kipa @ffkipa4]

��JENSEN HUANG IS OUT AT NVIDIA!

After 33 years, the man who built the AI chip giant has stepped down as CEO.

Polymarket traders saw this coming.

NVIDIA confirmed his resignation on November 12, effective immediately.

CFO Colette Kress will serve as interim CEO while the board searches for a successor.

The timing is striking. Just days earlier, the board launched an investigation into reports involving Huang and a suspected FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE OPERATION.

The market saw massive activity:
→ $5.98M in volume on the November 12 contract
→ $22.4M+ across the broader resignation market

One important detail: Huang resigned, he wasn't fired. NVIDIA hasn't disclosed the reason for his departure.

Can NVIDIA maintain its AI dominance without the man who built it?

[Kipa @ffkipa4]

Jensen Huang WILL LEAVE NVIDIA before 2027?

I think there's a REAL chance...

But I also expect NVIDIA to fall below $4T by year-end.

The key detail: NVIDIA's board has launched an independent investigation into reports that HUANG WAS TARGETED BY FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE.

On Nov 8, the board said it had confidence in Jensen and his leadership team.

BUT the situation escalated on Nov 11.

Reuters reported that NVIDIA's 11-member board met to consider removing Huang.

A majority can remove him under the company's bylaws.

This is no longer just speculation.

The $4T threshold is a separate battle.

NVIDIA closed Nov 11 with a $4.195T market cap, but shares fell 8.6% in after-hours trading following the board reports.

The year-end close is what matters.

The next major catalyst is Nov 17: NVIDIA's earnings report.

Strong guidance could restore confidence and push the valuation back above $4T.

More negative board news could make that much harder...

[Kipa @ffkipa4]

@5deathpunch Me too

[Kipa @ffkipa4]

@5deathpunch Portland might pull off another upset 👀