fhas

Hot 100 predictions.
Instagram: fhaspredictions

[fhas @fhaspredictions]

@StatsBillboard Fergie had the strongest #2 and the weakest #1 of the year.

Fergalicious: 660-670 points (66-67K using the official formula) --- peak #2 ("old" formula - Christmas week)

Big Girls Don't Cry: 202 points --- peak #1 ("new" formula)

[fhas @fhaspredictions]

Couldn't find the accurate video numbers for some songs due to YouTube Charts being bugged/glitched this weekend. Songs that weren't in the top 100 on U.S. YouTube won't be as accurate as the others, but I tried to estimate the numbers for those numbers and I hope it's accurate.

[fhas @fhaspredictions]

Hot 100 - Final Predictions - September 25, 2021 #Hot100Predictions

[fhas @fhaspredictions]

Hot 100 number ones - Stats breakdown

@BrunoMars - "When I Was Your Man"

[fhas @fhaspredictions]

Harlem Shake's first week at #1 was the week when Billboard added YouTube streams to the Hot 100 formula.

It's also the strongest week - by raw chart points - of the 2010s decade.

[fhas @fhaspredictions]

Hot 100 number ones - Stats breakdown

@baauer - "Harlem Shake"

[fhas @fhaspredictions]

@DevSunjata Sales I think they should completely change the way it's counted, because it's not working anymore.

Last month we had an artist debuting at #88 because he literally bought his own song.

When Billboard realized that, they had to remove the song from the chart.

[fhas @fhaspredictions]

I've been following the Hot 100 since January 2009.

This is probably the craziest week I've ever seen.

Last week was very interesting too.

Since 2018, I've lost a lot of interest for the charts due to some rule changes by Billboard (cont...)

[billboard charts @billboardcharts]

The #Hot100 top 10 (chart dated Sept. 18, 2021)

[fhas @fhaspredictions]

@DevSunjata I'm 26 and I grew up listening to radio too.

I think it should be counted and have about 25% of the points (it's currently at ~35% on non-album weeks), but I disagree with Billboard adjusting the formula and the rules to give more points to radio and sales.

[fhas @fhaspredictions]

@DevSunjata Yes.

Until June 28, 2018, all on-demand streams counted the same.

I think that methodology was better.

[fhas @fhaspredictions]

@DevSunjata Paid streams counting more than free streams and formula change to increase the points for sales and radio and decrease the points for streaming.

[fhas @fhaspredictions]

@Rohit_btsarmy I mean, 13 weeks in Hot 100 history had a song with more than 100M streams.

Old Town Road has 9 of those weeks.

Also, In My Feelings with 2 weeks, Harlem Shake and God's Plan with 1 week each.

[fhas @fhaspredictions]

@Rohit_btsarmy Old Town Road.

[fhas @fhaspredictions]

@Rohit_btsarmy Shape Of You peaked with 50.8M and Despacito peaked with 69.6M.

100M+ peaks:
Drake - In My Feelings (2018) - 116.2M (also a week with 106.2M)
Baauer - Harlem Shake (2013) - 103.0M
Drake - God's Plan (2018) - 101.7M

OTR has 9 of the 13 weeks where a song had 100M+ streams.

[fhas @fhaspredictions]

@Rohit_btsarmy Week 1 - 46.6M
2 - 143.0M (all-time record)
3 - 125.2M
4 - 114.4M
5 - 104.0M
6 - 104.1M
7 - 103.1M
8 - 130.7M
9 - 115.3M
10 - 115.6M
11 - 99.9M
12 - 91.6M
13 - 88.7M
14 - 89.3M
15 - 70.5M
16 - 86.2M
17 - 72.5M
18 - 67.4M
19 - 58.8M

[fhas @fhaspredictions]

and I just wanna thank the friends I've made while following the charts, like the members from TOTC and people at PulseMusicBoards - especially people like Tanooki, Zero, Lukas, Tom, Ashres, Smash and Strongerq (I'm sorry if I forgot anybody here).

[fhas @fhaspredictions]

...but these last few weeks I had some fun watching two huge album bombs.

Hopefully we have more big albums this year.

Btw, I don't want to compare the 2020s with previous decades and I wish that we had streaming to measure album consumption pre-2014.

[fhas @fhaspredictions]

CLB already broke the record for highest streams per track with 35.4M (previous record: Scorpion with 29.8M).

[fhas @fhaspredictions]

Hot 100 - Final Predictions - September 18, 2021 #Hot100Predictions

[fhas @fhaspredictions]

Records that Drake's "Certified Lover Boy" could tie or break this week:

5 in the top 5 (tied with The Beatles in 1964)
9 in the top 10 (new record)
14 in the top 20 (new record)
21 in the top 40 (new record)