FieldofOne

Most bettors handicap teams.
I handicap the market.
Line movement. Public vs price. CLV. Disciplined passes.

[FieldofOne @fieldofone]

@LilyStatPad @AlexCaruso I did. I just thought the opening line was hilarious. Never seen a play framed like that before. Genius.

[FieldofOne @fieldofone]

Market Truth - The win/Loss Lie

I used to think a winning a bet meant I read it correctly.

It doesn’t.

The line moves. The public piles on.

Sometimes you’re right for the wrong reasons.
Sometimes you’re wrong and the results bail you out anyway.

Win/Loss feels like truth.
It isn’t.

CLV is the only thing that’s actually keeping score.

[FieldofOne @fieldofone]

@MoneyQuotesX Materialism. Hands down.

[FieldofOne @fieldofone]

@CuriosityonX Thank you. 🙄. You just sent me down a rabbit hole.

[FieldofOne @fieldofone]

@CapperLedger I put out a post looking for ones that did to tail. Any recommendations. Who’s honest and actually knows it?

[FieldofOne @fieldofone]

@Dearme2_ Go outside

[FieldofOne @fieldofone]

@xedge_app Agreed 1000%. Monitoring plays against CLV is a big part of the review process. Win or lose day by day that’s the only way to know if your reads are correct.

[FieldofOne @fieldofone]

Wednesday card. Three reads.

COL @ CHC — TOTAL OVER⭐️⭐️
66% of the bets on Over. 59% of the money on Over.
Line confirmed on both books. All-side steam.
Public and sharp money pointing the same direction.

BAL @ SEA — ORIOLES ML⭐️⭐️
78% of the tickets on Seattle.
The line shortened toward Baltimore.
59% of the money on a team getting 22% of the tickets.

CLE @ MIL — GUARDIANS ML⭐️⭐️
69% of the tickets on Milwaukee.
The line shortened toward Cleveland.
67% of the money on a team getting 31% of the tickets.

Two dogs. Public loading the favorite both times.
Both lines moving the wrong way — toward the side nobody's betting.

We don't pick teams. We read the market.
Tonight the market is talking on three games.

That's the card.

#FieldOfOne #MLB

[FieldofOne @fieldofone]

✅COL @ CHI Over 10 (-111)⭐️⭐️
💰CASH IT Final 8-6

✅BAL ML (+111)⭐️⭐️
💰CASH IT. Final 5-3

❌CLE ML(+106)⭐️⭐️
Final 4-9

[FieldofOne @fieldofone]

Wednesday card. Three reads.

COL @ CHC — TOTAL OVER⭐️⭐️
66% of the bets on Over. 59% of the money on Over.
Line confirmed on both books. All-side steam.
Public and sharp money pointing the same direction.

BAL @ SEA — ORIOLES ML⭐️⭐️
78% of the tickets on Seattle.
The line shortened toward Baltimore.
59% of the money on a team getting 22% of the tickets.

CLE @ MIL — GUARDIANS ML⭐️⭐️
69% of the tickets on Milwaukee.
The line shortened toward Cleveland.
67% of the money on a team getting 31% of the tickets.

Two dogs. Public loading the favorite both times.
Both lines moving the wrong way — toward the side nobody's betting.

We don't pick teams. We read the market.
Tonight the market is talking on three games.

That's the card.

#FieldOfOne #MLB

[FieldofOne @fieldofone]

Mid Day Market Report

Nothing firing on the early games today.
We do have one A grade market play and two B grade market plays for the evening slate.

Full breakdowns coming shortly.

[FieldofOne @fieldofone]

Wednesday Bomb 💣 Board

Don't pick and choose. If you're going to play them play them all and split your stake across all 10.

Good Luck🍀

Went 4 for 10 yesterday.
At $10 / ticket
Profit: $97.50

Since June 5
33.6% hit rate
At $10 / ticket
Profit: $728
66.2% ROI

[FieldofOne @fieldofone]

@fitzmagic13 Some of us do it with a disclaimer that we DO NOT play them. Of course I created one just to drive engagement and it’s been on 🔥🔥🔥 just begging me to torch my bankroll. So far I’ve resisted the urge.

[FieldofOne @fieldofone]

@TopuriaLand All that goes out the window when you get your eye socket pushed in a little over a minute into the first round by an uppercut.

[FieldofOne @fieldofone]

@MJCLocks Love this write up! Thank you. Are these HR specific or just batting props in general?

[FieldofOne @fieldofone]

@Brewers And a joy to watch. Never been a big fan of this team but they got something cooking in Milwaukee!!!

[FieldofOne @fieldofone]

4 out of 10 cashed on today’s Barrel Report.

$10 on each name:
Risked: $100
Returned: $197.50
Profit: +$97.50
ROI: 97.5%

Another profitable day hunting barrels.

✅Kyle Schwarber +300
✅Mike Trout +350
✅Sal Stewart +400
✅Spencer Steer +525

[FieldofOne @fieldofone]

Tuesday Yard Card

Favorable weather environments in several places today for home runs. Here's today's barrel report.
#HRProps #homerunlist #props

Based on: Weather score, park factor, wind direction, batter vs pitcher splits, and book vs price edge.

[FieldofOne @fieldofone]

Houston won 4-2.
Closing line -174
CLV +1.1%

The play wasn’t a pick.
It was consensus. Tickets, money, and the model all saying the same thing before first pitch.

That’s not random.

That’s what alignment looks like when it shows up.

[FieldofOne @fieldofone]

MLB PLAY POST
Market + Model Aligned

DET @ HOU ⭐️⭐️⭐️
H. Brown vs F. Valdez

Hunter Brown was off to a scorching hot start before landing on the 60 day DL with a 0.84 ERA thru two starts. He hasn't pitched since late March, but has a career 2.41 ERA and a perfect 3-0 record against Detroit.

Framber Valdez does not look the same as he did in Houston last year. He's 1-4 with an ERA over 5 in his last 5 starts. He's given up 14 earned runs in that timeframe and 4 dingers.

72% of tickets on the Astros.
71% of the money on the Astros.
The line steamed toward Houston.

Public money, sharp money, and the market price all pointing the same direction.

Our model outputs a HIGH confidence play on Houston
#BettingX #MLBTwitter
Predicted Score: DET 3 / HOU 5
The Play: HOU ML (-166) ⭐️⭐️⭐️(3u)

When we see that kind of consensus across every input we track, we play it.

We handicap the market. This is what it's telling us.

[FieldofOne @fieldofone]

@FreddyLA7 @astros @houstonpolice I don’t know where Freddy and his friends are going next, but after how they’ve been treated in GA, AL, LA, and TX yall better take notes!!!