FIFTH SCRAPER LIMITED

[Satria Rafisky @satriarafisky]

ooh begini ya ternyata hilangin tulang ayam.

[David Ayo @_Only1davidayo_]

Dangote refinery IPO 🚩

MY THESIS

The biggest mistake a common man can make is buying Dangote stock at #525, which is super overvalued. By buying at that price, you will simply be supporting the notion that, yes, Dangote Petroleum Refinery is worth $45.6B because Dangote is literally offering 4.5B shares to the public at an IPO price of #525.

Firstly, let me tell you guys the reasons why Dangote Refinery can’t do 2X, even though you guys are expecting 5X,10X, etc. Then I will tell you the end game and why the common man will be the victim while the rich become richer.

There’s a petroleum company from my home country named Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) on the NYSE, and before the US war with Iran, this company had a market cap of $40B, which is less than Dangote’s market cap at IPO.

Here’s the catch: $MPC produces 2.9M barrels per day and has 13 refineries across the United States, while Dangote simply produces 650k barrels per day. So, $MPC produces more than 4X compared to Dangote per day. Don’t you find it unfair that a company that produces more than 4X should be worth $40B(in the biggest economy), while Dangote should be worth $45B using the IPO price? Right now, $MPC sits at a $120B market cap because of the Iran war, and still, using this, Dangote should be worth around $20B.

Secondly, the biggest economy is the United States, and the biggest stock market is in the United States. The total stocks in the Nigerian stock market are estimated to be worth $116B, which is almost equal to just $MPC’s market cap of $112B.

The Dangote Refinery faces another big problem: there isn’t much liquidity in the Nigerian stock exchange, and outsiders won’t come, or the majority won’t come, to invest in the stock market simply because of volatility in the naira, local regulatory shifts, and crude supply security issues.

If I haven’t given enough reasons why it can’t do 2X within the first 3 years and you’re still thinking it can do 10X, just know that for just 3X alone, Dangote Refinery needs to be worth more than the entire Nigerian stock market 😂

Lastly,the thing no one talks about:Dangote Refinery is in $5.67B debt, and this is one reason why I know dilution of shares will be inevitable.

Now, what’s the end game? There’s a line that says the rich keep getting richer and the poor are always exit liquidity. If you were smart, you would ask yourself: why did Femi Otedola not wait for the IPO days to buy the shares at #525, but instead already paid $100M to have a private placement about 3 months ago, along with other rich individuals, at a discounted price of #455 per share?

And here’s the end game: those individuals, after 365 days, don’t need 2X to be profitable. 90% of them are okay with just a 30% gain.

Take note, Dangote Flour Mills had an IPO price of #15 in October 2007 and was listed on the Nigerian stock market, I think, in February 2008. The all-time high was #24 before it was delisted from the Nigerian stock market at #14, and then a company named Olam International acquired 100% of Dangote Flour Mills. There’s a lesson here: no one made 2X, and as crazy as inflation rose so high in your country, Nigeria, it still wasn’t possible.

They will sell the narrative to you that the stock will be like Amazon or Microsoft and could do 100X or 10X. But know that businessmen are also like your politicians: they will sell the narrative you want to hear. Know the game you’re playing. If you want just 10–30% profit, then yes, the Dangote IPO can be for you. But if you think this will make you rich and give you 2X or 5X, you’re in the wrong game.

Don’t be the exit liquidity, my frens. Move smarter and stay humble.

NFA 🤍

[ThatBlessedGirl @BlessedGirl001]

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[FIFTH SCRAPER LIMITED @fifthscraper]

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[FIFTH SCRAPER LIMITED @fifthscraper]

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[FIFTH SCRAPER LIMITED @fifthscraper]

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[FIFTH SCRAPER LIMITED @fifthscraper]

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[FIFTH SCRAPER LIMITED @fifthscraper]

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[FIFTH SCRAPER LIMITED @fifthscraper]

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[FIFTH SCRAPER LIMITED @fifthscraper]

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[Cointelegraph @Cointelegraph]

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[FIFTH SCRAPER LIMITED @fifthscraper]

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[FIFTH SCRAPER LIMITED @fifthscraper]

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[FIFTH SCRAPER LIMITED @fifthscraper]

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