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We read every SEC filing every day, rank what actually matters, and write it in plain English. Every report ends with a dated yes-or-no call. Free.
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Filecrux reads every SEC filing, every day.
Hundreds of companies file paperwork. Most of it is nothing. We find the few that matter and write them in plain English.
Every report ends with a dated call. A later filing settles it. We publish the score either way.
@Alphacoreinvest A, but I was usually wrong all along π
@BrightLabsMedia Just the beginning
$DCH Will Dauch hit even its cut $1.350Bβ$1.375B 2026 EBITDA target as Q4 headwinds build?
βοΈ Dauch, a Detroit driveline and metal-forming supplier to automakers, was worth about $1.13B at $4.775 a share at 16:01 ET on October 30, 2026, and it has cut its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA target to $1.350Bβ$1.375B from $1.360Bβ$1.425B
π₯ The same filing deepens its full-year 2026 net loss target to $195Mβ$220M, from the $135Mβ$200M it set on August 7
π Preliminary Q3 Adjusted EBITDA of $355Mβ$360M is below Q2's $389.6M, and Q3 swings to a $42Mβ$47M net loss after Q2's $1.0M profit
β οΈ After first-half Adjusted EBITDA of $698.1M and Q3, the new target leaves about $292Mβ$322M for Q4, as customer production swings, inflation and energy costs weigh
π Sales guidance rises to $10.8Bβ$10.875B from $10.6Bβ$10.8B because of metal pass-throughs, yet the EBITDA margin at the midpoints slips to about 12.6% from about 13.0%
β οΈ Q2-end long-term debt of $5.03B, against $880.8M of cash, is over four times the $1.13B market value at 16:01 ET on October 30, 2026
π¦ The $260Mβ$325M Adjusted free cash flow target, which leaves out cash restructuring, acquisition and synergy payments, is to be narrowed closer to its midpoint, while on August 7 unadjusted 2026 free cash flow was targeted at -$105M to -$90M
π
Next: Full Q3 results come before the open on Friday, November 6, 2026, with a 10:00 a.m. ET call; watch how Q4 is expected to reach the target
Source: SEC 8-K, Oct 30 + Q2 release 8-K, Aug 7
Full report: https://t.co/cifWOQCihb
$OPY Will Oppenheimer (OPY) report full-year 2026 diluted earnings per share above $3.00 in its 2026 annual report?
We did a deep dive on Oppenheimer.
π’ Oppenheimer, a New York brokerage and investment bank, fell 20.3% to $85.92 on October 30 after third-quarter profit dropped 75%
π Diluted EPS is $1.07 after nine months, so the fourth quarter must earn about $1.93 a share, more than the third quarter's $1.81 even with the rights charge left out
π The YES case rests on cash-paid advisor stock rights remeasured to the share price: at $85.92 the stock is $32.04 below the $117.96 that set September's liability, so the $21.0M quarterly charge could turn into a credit
π Record managed assets of $59.6B set fourth-quarter advisory fees, and hedge-fund incentive fees helped fourth-quarter 2025 net income reach $74.4M
β οΈ The NO case: adjusted EPS fell about 35% to $1.96 even without the charge, and Capital Markets lost $9.9M before tax as stock-underwriting fees fell 82%
β οΈ The rights credit will not be dollar for dollar because unvested cost still reaches earnings, and hedge-fund assets lost $443M in value in the third quarter, which could thin incentive fees
π
Watch the December 31 share price, since a climb back above $117.96 would bring the rights charge back
Our call: YES. We find out when Oppenheimer files its 2026 annual report on Form 10-K, due in February 2027.
Full report linked in the replies.
$PRCH Will Porch's new 15M-share ATM, about 11% of its stock, weigh on PRCH ahead of the Allied Trust close?
π’ Porch Group, a homeowners insurer, signed an at-the-market deal with StoneX on October 30 that lets it sell up to 5M new shares and its Reciprocal up to 10M existing ones, sizing a program its October 13 Allied Trust release said only that it expected to file
β οΈ At $20.54 (16:07 ET, October 30, 2026), Porch's 5M shares are worth about $103M, about 3.8% of the 132.6M shares outstanding and about 65% of its own $157.6M of cash and investments at September 30
β οΈ The Reciprocal's 10M shares, of the 16.2M it holds and about $205M at that price, are not new stock, but they cannot vote while it holds them, so sales would add to voting shares; with Porch's 5M, that is about 11% of shares outstanding
π¦ Porch gets none of the Reciprocal's proceeds, pays StoneX 1.5% of gross proceeds on its own sales and names only general corporate purposes for its cash
π¦ In return, the Reciprocal, which Porch runs but does not own, can turn PRCH shares that largely don't count toward its statutory surplus into cash that does, to support its rating, pay claims or fund acquisitions
β οΈ Neither Porch nor the Reciprocal has to sell any shares, and sales can come at market prices or in block trades, so the pace of any selling is not set
π
Next: The Allied Trust closing will not occur earlier than January 1, 2027, and Porch expects it in the first quarter of 2027
Source: SEC 424B5 + 8-K, Oct 30; 8-Ks, Oct 28 + Oct 13
@chartingthemkt They will play the video with the pointless ducks 20 years from now when they teach students about financial bubbles.
@Sir_Kory Many, many risks
$LYB Will LyondellBasell's $321M sale of its shut Houston refinery unit to a Valero subsidiary close in Q4 2026 as planned?
π’ LyondellBasell, a global plastics and chemicals maker worth about $21.59B at $66.845 a share at 13:03 ET on October 30, 2026, says in its Q3 10-Q it agreed on Oct. 29 to sell Houston Refining, L.P., owner of its shut Houston refinery site, to a Valero subsidiary for $321M; the unit held about $15M of assets and $315M of liabilities at Sept. 30, 2026
π€ That is the shut-refinery unit whose $320.5M sale to a Valero subsidiary the Oct. 30, 2026 8-K announced, so LyondellBasell hands off about $300M of net liabilities on top of collecting the cash
π€ The 10-Q gives no estimate of any gain on the sale; it says the sale is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2026, subject to regulatory and other customary closing conditions
β οΈ Against that, the company strips sale gains out of adjusted EPS, and the cash coming in is only $321M, about 1.5% of the $21.59B market value at $66.845 a share at 13:03 ET on October 30, 2026
π₯ The shut sites still cost money, with discontinued operations, mainly refining plus the Berre refinery teardown, losing $22M pre-tax in Q3 2026 and $57M over the first nine months
π
Next: The Houston Refining, L.P. sale is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2026, subject to regulatory and other customary closing conditions
Source: SEC 10-Q, Oct 30 + SEC 8-K, Oct 30
$LNT Follow-up: Will Alliant's plan to sell up to $2.7B of new stock through 2030 dilute its EPS growth?
π’ Alliant Energy, the Midwest regulated electric and gas utility worth about $18.55B at $71.81 a share at 12:01 ET on October 30, 2026, says in its 10-Q that it expects to issue up to $2.7B of common stock from 2027 through 2030 (about 14.6% of that value), helping fund the $15.9B 2027-2030 capital plan set October 29
β οΈ That is about 37.6M new shares at that price, or 3.6% a year over four years
β οΈ That comes on top of up to $650M of forward stock sales Alliant expects to settle in the rest of 2026, at contracted forward prices of $66.01 (2025 program) to $72.89 (2026 program) a share, or roughly 8.9M-9.8M shares
π¦ Debt does more of the work in 2027, with up to $1.3B planned at the Iowa utility, $500M at the Wisconsin utility and up to $1B at the parent level, while $675M of existing debt matures that year
π On the other side, Alliant guides 2027 EPS to $3.63-$3.73, 8% growth at the midpoint, and much of the equity is already priced: at September 30 its forwards could have been settled for $1,232M at $66.01 (2025 program) and $504M at $72.89 (2026 program), and it expects higher 2027 operating cash flow from data-center sales and tax-credit transfers
π
Next: The up to $650M of forward settlements is expected for the remainder of 2026, and the $0.5625 quarterly dividend starts with the February 2027 dividend payment
Source: SEC 10-Q, Oct 30 + SEC 8-K, Oct 29
$GD Is GD's updated $17.20β$17.30 EPS outlook cautious when it implies a weaker Q4 than Q3's $4.49?
π’ General Dynamics, the Gulfstream business-jet, shipbuilding and combat-vehicle maker worth about $102.02B at $377.26 a share at 12:01 ET on October 30, 2026, updated its 2026 diluted EPS outlook to $17.20β$17.30 in its Q3 10-Q filed October 30
π The same 10-Q, which reports Q3 diluted EPS of $4.49, now guides 2026 revenue to $56.5Bβ$56.8B with an operating margin around 10.5%
π¦ The new $17.25 midpoint of the 10-Q's range, at $377.26 at 12:01 ET on October 30, 2026, puts the stock at about 21.9 times that midpoint
π
After the first nine months' $12.83, the range implies Q4 EPS of $4.37β$4.47, just under Q3's $4.49 but above the $4.17 GD reported for Q4 2025, on implied Q4 revenue of about $14.36Bβ$14.66B against $14.566B in Q3, while backlog jumped to $220.3B from $136.5B in Q2
π On the other side, nine-month diluted EPS is up about 13.6% to $12.83 from $11.29, Q3 backlog jumped to $220.3B from $136.5B, and a Q4 that only matched Q3 would put the year at $17.32, above the new top end
π
Next: Danny Deep takes over as CEO on January 1, 2027, with Phebe Novakovic moving to executive chairman, and the Q4 report will show whether 2026 EPS clears $17.30
Source: SEC 10-Q, Oct 30 + 8-K, Oct 7
$DRS Follow-up: Will Leonardo DRS's earnings hold up in Q4 once a one-time $22M Q3 tax gain is gone?
π’ Leonardo DRS, a U.S. defense electronics maker worth about $10.11B at $37.875 a share at 12:01 ET on October 30, 2026, showed in its Oct. 29 8-K release a Q3 tax provision of just $1M on $116M of pre-tax earnings
β οΈ Its 10-Q, filed Oct. 29, puts the Q3 tax rate at 0.9% against 17.2% a year earlier, mainly because a roughly $22M reserve for uncertain taxes on a 2022 return was released when the statute of limitations ran out
β οΈ That $22M is about 19% of Q3 net earnings and about $0.08 a share, and the adjusted EPS math does not strip it out, so the $0.46 adjusted EPS would be about $0.38 without it
π€ DRS also paid about $18M in cash for about $20M of tax credits that will partly offset its 2025 Federal and New Jersey taxes
π Even with the benefit taken out, Q3 net earnings would be near $93M, still about 29% above last year's $72M, so the business grew without it
β οΈ The nine-month tax rate is 10.2% against the 13.0% rate in the raised full-year guide, which implies a higher tax rate in Q4
π
Next: DRS is aiming for the fourth quarter of 2026 to complete its $450 million Raft LLC buy, paid with cash and revolver borrowings
Source: SEC 10-Q, Oct 29 + 8-K release, Oct 29
@chartingthemkt What is your opinion on PEG ratio?
$LEA Does Lear's 33% adjusted EPS jump to $3.71 hold up with Q3 free cash flow down to $158M from $307M?
π’ Lear, the largest U.S.-based auto supplier, posted Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of $3.71 on sales up 2% to $5.8B, and it is worth about $5.97B at $121.11 at 10:01 ET on October 30, 2026
π Q3 free cash flow fell to $158M from $307M a year earlier as operating cash dropped to $329M from $444M and capital spending rose to $171M from $137M
β οΈ Lear adjusted its 2026 sales outlook to $23,350-23,750M for changing production schedules but kept core operating earnings at $1,080-1,200M, which after $866.2M through nine months needs $214-334M in Q4 against $255.7M in Q3
π Nine-month free cash flow is $419.7M versus $246.1M a year ago, and the $565-665M full-year guide implies $145-245M more in Q4
π° Adjusted net income rose 23% while EPS rose 33% because diluted shares fell to 49.9M from 53.7M after buybacks, including $175M in Q3 that met the $350M full-year target
π¦ Cash fell to $889M from $1,033M at year-end while debt due within a year rose to $641.3M from $3.7M, against $2.9B of total liquidity
π
Next: Q4 results against the kept $1,080-1,200M core earnings range; Jared Fedele becomes CFO effective March 1, 2027
Source: SEC 8-K, Oct 30 + SEC 8-K, Oct 19
@BrightLabsMedia I suspect you will find these concentration risks all over the AI world.
$RBLX Does Roblox's guide for a 10-15% Q4 bookings drop and negative adjusted EBITDA mark a lasting margin reset for a company that lost $230M under GAAP in Q3?
π’ Roblox, the online game platform with 138 million daily users, guided Q4 2026 bookings to $1.89B-$2.00B, down 10% to 15% year on year, at a market value of about $31.35B at $43.895 a share at 10:01 ET on October 30, 2026
π₯ Q4 adjusted EBITDA is guided to $(70)M to $(10)M after a positive $138M in Q3, as lower holiday bookings meet fixed costs and spending on the Universal Player and Roblox Everywhere continues
π₯ Free cash flow is guided to $(190)M to $(105)M after $364M in Q3, partly because the $380M of Q4 capex includes spending shifted out of Q3
β οΈ Q3 bookings of $1.7B beat the top of the company's range but still fell 12% year on year, and the wider Q4 range reflects how much holiday spending lands in the last week of December
π¦ Q4 revenue is guided up 4% to 12% only because most bookings are recognized over 27 months, so it carries flow-through from 2025's elevated bookings; operating cash flow stays positive at $190M-$275M, and the worst-case free cash burn of $190M is about 3% of the $6.2B in cash and investments held on September 30, 2026
π
Next: Roblox expects to launch the first phase of Roblox Everywhere, publishing select top games, in the first half of next year
Source: SEC 8-K shareholder letter + 10-Q, Oct 29
Full report: https://t.co/FE2xGJ26hr
$ATEC Will ATEC stock close above $11 on November 5, 2026?
We did a deep dive on Alphatec.
π’ Alphatec, a spine-surgery device maker, had climbed about 15% to $11.37 before it cut its 2026 outlook after the October 29 close
βοΈ The revenue guide fell to about $862M from $882M, the second cut since May, and this time the surgical core was trimmed too, to about $789M from $805M
π Biologics are the leak: hardware added $26M of growth while total surgical revenue grew $25M, so the rest of the line, biologics included, shrank by about $1M
β οΈ Even the lower guide needs about $235M of Q4 revenue and about $42M of adjusted EBITDA, both above Q3's $221M and $38M
π Cash fell to $79.9M from $160.8M at year-end against $649.8M of debt principal, leaving net debt at about 4.5 times trailing adjusted EBITDA
β οΈ The May cut sent the stock down 31.7% in a day to $6.99, and at $11.37 its enterprise value is about 17 times the new adjusted EBITDA target
π The bull read is that demand is intact: case volumes grew 20%, net new surgeon users 25% and hardware 17%, and adjusted EBITDA margin widened 400 basis points
π
Q4 results, likely in late February since last year's annual report came out on February 24, show whether biologics attachment recovers enough to hold the new guide
Our call: NO. We find out at the close on November 5, 2026, five trading days after the October 29 after-close results release.
Full report linked in the replies.
Full report: https://t.co/jJIGxUuBtg
$INTC Will INTC stock close back above $95, its August share-sale price, on November 13, 2026?
We did a deep dive on Intel.
π’ Intel designs and makes its own chips, and its stock fell 27.8% to $68.97 early on October 30, about 27% below the $95 price of its August stock sale
π The YES case rests on servers, where data center revenue jumped 78% to $7.3 billion and the CEO says supply, not demand, limits Xeon sales
π Intel beat its own guide last quarter, earning $0.52 a share against the $0.38 it had forecast, so the new forecast could also prove cautious
βοΈ The NO case starts with the forecast, which puts fourth-quarter adjusted profit at $0.25 a share, less than half of last quarter, and the adjusted margin at 38.0% from 44.1%
π PCs drive the drop, because the client unit is Intel's largest at $8.1 billion and Intel expects its weak trends to worsen this quarter and last into 2027
β οΈ An October accident halted Intel's Israeli plant, and Intel says it will lift costs through the first half of 2027 but cannot yet size the hit
β οΈ Diluted shares rose about 17% in a year and Intel's pledge not to sell new stock has lapsed, so any recovery in profit is spread over more shares
π
Closing back above $95 takes a rise of about 38%, and the first check is whether the Israeli plant restarts by the end of October 2026
Our call: NO. We find out at the close on November 13, 2026.
Full report linked in the replies.
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