冷静冷静再冷静

[Ansem 🐂🀄️ @blknoiz06]

imitation is the sincerest form of flattery

[Vega Hao @Vegahao]

https://t.co/MuHNShC9Eg

[Ansem 🐂🀄️ @blknoiz06]

tweeting is very different than trading

it's actually a skill to be able to train your brain to quickly respond & buy when you see something becoming consensus w/ strong fundamentals but you're not positioned yet

[Manchurius Hao — Greeks.live首席赌狗 @AntonLaVay]

我跟你们说，美股这玩意儿，就真的是特简单，你就找这最热门行业中的的股票中，远期期权OI疯狂增加，远期IV开始上扬，LEAPS被明显扫货的公司。

老登股什么玩意儿跟你说稳健的直接隐藏。

然后跟单就这么简单，美股讲究的就是一个跟单，倍儿地道。

一定要关注LEAPS，那些13F大佬建仓全是LEAPS，短期期权韭菜的噪音太大了。

我几乎可以肯定 $nok 当下正在被13F大佬疯狂建仓，因为如果我们看到一份13F，反推他们是什么时候建仓的也是看OI的，

记住，小成交量可以被刷成大成交量，但是大成交量不能被伪装成小成交量，难以隐藏自身，因为OI在增加，IV在上扬。

凡是接触，必留痕迹。

我应该是当时最早发现 $nok LEAPS在被疯狂建仓的。

[H.E. Justin Sun 👨‍🚀 🌞 @justinsuntron]

有人总是担心这波存储，踏空了，怎么办？

别担心。

AI时代才刚刚开始。

永远都有机会。

[Ansem 🐂🀄️ @blknoiz06]

at the beginning of every crypto bull market to create wealth effect + bring back retail attention, you need:

- one crypto major to go parabolic
- one crypto meme to go parabolic

in 2017/18 it was btc & xrp

in 2020/21 it was eth & doge

in 2023/24 it was sol & pepe

[AB Kuai.Dong @_FORAB]

网传了一天的币安钱包消息，正式落地了，此次还有 Meme 从发射，到最终上币安 Alpha 流程的转变。

新的上币路径如下：

1. 开设 Four Meme 精品内盘专区

2. 项目方需要在精品内盘区，发射代币

3. 内盘只能币安钱包参与，市值满 100 万才能毕业

4. 毕业后会进入到币安钱包排行榜中，币安钱包的用户参与交易或持有，可以增加代币在排行的权重，该榜单实时更新

5. 后续币安 Alpha、币安合约、Aster 合约上币部门，将以这个排行，作为主要的依据，不再是纯让市场猜测

对市场的影响：

1. 早期 BNB 链的精品 Meme，只能被币安钱包 + Four Meme 独揽，其它钱包无法浏览和交易

2. 由于需要满 100 万美金市值 + 2 万美金的流动性，代币才能从内盘毕业，增加了发射 Meme 的成本，确保有流动性和热度的 Meme，才能推送到市场，减少早期浇给的作恶事件

3. 币安钱包在设计时，采用无私钥模式，即 1 币安账户 = 1 币安钱包地址，减少了早期刷量、对冲、开小号的现象

4. 新的明确上币路径出现，即从 Four meme 发射，币安钱包打内盘，内盘毕业拼排行榜，被 Aster DEX 上合约，再到币安 Alpha 收录和后续更大的上所。

至此 BNB 上 Meme 链条全部打通。

@cz_binance @heyibinance @BinanceWallet

[0xSun @0xSunNFT]

这段时间重新翻看了自己的推文，把其中我觉得比较精华的内容和一些高光操作整理了出来，虽然市场状况一直在变化，具体的方法未必适用了，但是如何寻找alpha、怎么将认知与实践相结合，这些思维依然是有共性的，希望能对大家有所帮助。

以下按时间顺序列出：

2022.04.22
NFT图狗Mint指南
https://t.co/p2iWg1Y9tz

2022.05.02
猴地逃顶获利200ETH
https://t.co/D3dM6YPZ6d

2022.07.21
NFT抢购Bot指南
https://t.co/5DSQ8ZRlqP

2022.09.21
DogeClub单个图狗获利70ETH
https://t.co/e6v6JNpSq1

2023.04.19
Memecoin基础科普（当时市场热点正从NFT转移到土狗币）
https://t.co/pKUzISskNb

2023.05.09
重心换到土狗币后单周浮盈100ETH
https://t.co/M6IE1iMbCp

2023.07.29
Pauly的Pond开盘3分钟1ETH变成44.5ETH
https://t.co/qF8qXaMvtn

2023.09.12
香蕉枪Banana Gun发币复盘，白名单+开盘限购获利50ETH
https://t.co/fa6gjJX65i

2024.01.05
节点猴NodeMonkes复盘，参与荷兰拍，0.03BTC成本最高地板价0.8BTC，获利3BTC
https://t.co/sZSZC54Nac

2024.01.29
从1万~1000万资金量级，各个阶段的思考与经历
https://t.co/SLcVyYVPAK

2024.02.26
通过链上交易一个月赚$1M的复盘（发射台Moby的预售、Shib官方的404项目Sheb、DN404项目ASTX、公售随便打开盘上币安的Portal、Merlin链的$Huhu等）
https://t.co/RBmigAeMKm

2024.06.19
反思自己在擅长的链上赛道过于谨慎，在不熟的山寨操作上仓位过重
https://t.co/USewGYUnmV

2024.07.08
各种原因导致一天踏空数个金狗后的思考
https://t.co/Qs8LzKKTJe

2024.07.17
特朗普枪击事件，相关热点土狗$Fight获利13万u复盘
https://t.co/8TjFp3rDTG

2024.07.24
关于“聪明钱”和“跟单”的看法
https://t.co/JRUYNn1h1V

2024.07.31
麻吉图币项目“BAYC”开盘发现套利方法，1分钟收获15万u
https://t.co/YK4DgpCtzA

2024.08.23
Simon Cat预售复盘，一次堪称完美的打新机会
https://t.co/3FlbGJ1Y9w

2024.10.11
2M市值开始转推Goat相关内容，获利10万u
https://t.co/u5ixxYF9qb

2024.11.03
马斯克置顶松鼠第一时间发推，获利19万u
https://t.co/Hy0umF6Cat

2024.11.11
复盘SOL单链单月1M收益
https://t.co/ZMDGnL4rCy

2024.11.16
DeSci生态起飞前梳理线索，RIF+URO获利30万u
https://t.co/83bcfXyzz3

2024.12.14
复盘为什么会卖飞自己早期发掘的项目，做多Goat和Pnut获利$2M
https://t.co/Duj29TIe2i

2025.01.05
AI赛道相关代币一周获利$1M复盘
https://t.co/kYrRBaKIzI

2025.01.18
特朗普推特发布代币合约后“人只活一次”
https://t.co/Pl2GYHvjX6

2025.01.19
$Trump单币浮盈$20M+
https://t.co/8wpEfG34Hq

2025.01.25
特朗普老婆发币$Melania，对后市看法由乐观变为不确定
https://t.co/9flGJySQqV

2025.02.03
认为不存在全面普涨，开始低倍做空山寨币
https://t.co/KN7ZYtjSGq

2025.03.30
对自己三年来币圈笔记的整理与分享
https://t.co/6ixE2dT7nj

2025.04.07
做空山寨币的黄金期已经过去
https://t.co/Njw0ACOhxd

2025.04.19
不要用战术上的勤奋掩盖战略上的懒惰
https://t.co/JYLPtIk9Vn

2025.05.01
$Gork获利18万u
https://t.co/4r6jg7XGIE

2025.05.31
认为大部分山寨已经重新进入下跌趋势
https://t.co/i7esMiGsfT

2025.07.08
PumpFun公售是机会
https://t.co/JVIqiEgpPC

2025.07.23
链上Meme两大方法论，叙事交易和地址挖掘
https://t.co/GsQz7d2ZrO

2025.08.01
做多ETH，做空山寨币对冲
https://t.co/bAQUJhXYX0

2025.09.02
复盘做空WLFI获利$1M
https://t.co/EmXIZlNy6b

持续分享观点，一是因为我一直都是一个表达欲较强，乐于总结归纳的人，二是这种公开发表的看法，假如后续能被市场所印证，其中收获的快乐甚至已经超越了交易盈利的数字本身。

[Ansem 🐂🀄️ @blknoiz06]

i give green line 15% probability, blue line 60% probability, red line 20% probability

buy as much bitcoin as you can if it starts trading below $100k this year and early 2026, sell into 2028 at much higher prices

i also agree 4 year cycle is no longer valid just think we'll be bearish for slightly longer than @plur_daddy does, think uptrend starts aggressively ~Q2 2026

think worst case if we somehow get a recession would be $50k (5%)

[AB Kuai.Dong @_FORAB]

如果要做 CZ 行情的，关注这几个就行了，除了 OneKey 以外，另外三个都已经发币。

昨天 Sign 发布了新的白皮书，这个也是 CZ 过去除了 Aster 之外，提及最频繁的项目，他很看好 Sign 在做的数字主权概念，简单理解就是 RWA。

这也意味着 BNB 这波衍生品 DEX、RWA 赛道的龙头基本都有主了，剩下需要关注，预测市场这块的赛道，有没有项目能跑出来。

另外，Vana 则是年初，由 CZ 出席顾问的项目，但可惜后续提及的不多。而近期频繁提及的，确实只有以上这两个。

过去老哥每次发推提及，都会给币价带来正相关的反馈，因此也被社区称为 CZ 行情，有点类似当年 BNB 链初期那波，来自 CZ 高调且频繁地跟生态项目互动，从而刺激市场投资者情绪。

[ming_lau @minglaugodel]

9yTHSQUH9PJcMXPdkWTt78SPuKT69UE32wAPH9pmG9tJ
在pump上有大量这样的币，市值很低，一般就几千美金，然后动不动有一波涨到几万美金，拉个十倍左右又跌回来，如果有ai可以找到这样的币，每个在低位买100u，然后涨了自动卖，反复波段，一年估计也能赚个几百万
这个ca我搜了一下，x上还没出现过
pump之前被bonk超越的时候我也没替他担心过，因为上面有大量别的发射台没有的玩法，像别的台子，凉了就真凉了，不会有人诈尸
你说这个币有啥角度，完全看不出来，我也不记得当时为啥要买，但你从k线角度就很容易理解，反正时不时来一根，那就买呗

[siki 四季.hl @0xHunter_0x50]

扫了一圈主播，发现pumpfun真的捡到宝了，bagwork 那群小孩就是顶流主播的天赋，我日，第一天冲球场，第二天被打，第三天想办法扯其他顶流主播流量，太猛了。 现在刚起床把直播关了，粉丝直接开始自嗨，直接冲48M，我日太恐怖了。 其他主播最多在电脑前打游戏或者剃个头，一点不敢出门整活 真的不行。
$bagwork 冲啊啊啊啊啊啊啊

[CryptoD | 1000X GEM @CryptoDevinL]

做投資呢，
99% 時間都是在等待。

覺得勝率不高，
就別出手。

[何币 @hebi555]

https://t.co/TkUvtMLKfD

那个男人他终于来了
可以查询了
没有反撸

[慈善家 @cishanjia]

不要被色情驱动，要被爱情驱动。
不要被他人驱动，要被理想驱动。
不要被利益驱动，要被热爱驱动。
不要被恐惧驱动，要被勇敢驱动。

[Morris @Morris_LT]

个人的自信来源于哪里？其实很简单，那就是什么都敢做，什么结果都可以接受，什么都不在乎。因为一个人格健全的人，不应该把自信建立在社会认题上，因为人一旦寻求社会认同，反而会成为他人或者环境的奴隶。一旦环境改变或者被人否定，你的意志和精神就会崩塌。因此，你的自信应当来自于你对自身言行思想的绝对掌控，能够接受自己言行思想所带来的后果，哪怕这个后果大到可以让你死亡。当你什么都改变，什么结果都可以接受时，你就获得了无坚不摧的自信，即使大多数人都在你的对立面，也不会影响到你。

[LanLan @LanLan93083241]

“越是乱的时候就越要稳下来”

[Hamburger 🍔🔶BNB @gold_burger]

充满不确定性的时候才是真正可以赚钱的时候

当大家都认为这个是赚钱的好机会的时,这个机会会导致大部分人亏损.

很简单的例子,moonshot的电话猴在大部分不确定的时候,只有500k,起飞到13m,20多倍的涨幅.

jup一开始就用自己的公开地址发了vibe,尽管后续一堆利好没有公布,但是还是一路下跌.

所以,赚钱的机会是藏匿于不确定性中的,不确定会给你低价筹码,会给你高倍数.

[Unipcs (aka 'Bonk Guy') 🎒 @theunipcs]

the mob came for me when I published the quoted tweet sharing my objective opinion on the $PUMP TGE, days before the TGE event last week

i was called a lot of names. several big accounts and VCs threw jabs, hurled insults, and even wrote epistles about how I was wrong in every way

they all tried to color my opinion (which has very much played out to a tee btw!) as biased, simply because I’m associated with BonkFun

i want you to carefully re-read my quoted post and see how practically everything I outlined has played out

i figured I should share my updated thoughts on the $PUMP token and Pumpfun as a whole here:

1. i think $PUMP is a buy here—not a sell!

it's not a trade i'm going to take personally, because I continue to believe that $BONK is the higher R/R play, even at current levels for both

however, sentiment and fundamentals indicate that $PUMP has either bottomed or is very close to bottoming here:

- almost everything that could go wrong has gone wrong
- their comms have been all over the place (and could be better)
- reports came out about funds with hundreds of millions in unlocked $PUMP dumping
- they did a massive buyback/publicity stunt, and price still dropped hard the other day
- BonkFun market share continues to rise
- etc

DESPITE ALL OF THIS:

price has held incredibly well above the $0.0052 levels

my read on this is that there's a lot of demand at those levels—and odds are, the market won’t let it fall much lower

if it does, it would likely be a flash wick—not a sustained dump

and IMO the R/R here is heavily in favor of up than down

i wrote in a group chat in the trenches today that i'd be surprised if PUMP does not start pumping by weekend or early next week latest, and i think it makes new ATHs on that move

2. when I posted my original thoughts on $PUMP, it was a non-consensus view

we had almost all of CT uniting to decry the mere suggestion that $BONK could outperform PUMP under prevailing conditions at the time

and everyone was a raging PUMP bull: 'it's going to immediately pump to $10 billion'

but now that it’s played out exactly as suggested?

almost all of CT is suddenly in agreement that $PUMP is 'cooked' and a 'free short'

sounds familiar? 😅

as I’ve always said: CT is a great counter-trade signal

this doesn't just apply to trades I take, btw

CT is the herd, and the herd is often wrong

right now, the herd is screaming that $PUMP is finished

so let it be on record: I’m taking the opposite side of that trade here, publicly

3. golden bull run, etc etc

$BTC keeps making new ATHs daily, recently hitting $120,000+

even $ETH, which has been notorious for being dormant during prior $BTC runs, is now printing massive daily candles and just hit levels unseen since January

memecoins are having explosive moves everywhere

altcoins in general look primed for an explosive move

and you think $PUMP, arguably the most mainstream crypto app in recent memory, and the cryptocurrency with the most mindshare right now, just dies quietly and goes to zero without catching a bid?

not happening!

4. $PUMP Fundamentals

there’s good news and bad news

let’s start with the bad:

Pumpfun has lost the launchpad war

they’ve lost the trenches

as unbelievable as this might sound, I saw it coming long ago and made my first public prediction on July 2:

(my comment above was directed at their launchpad business btw, not the Pumpfun brand or project as a whole)

take a look at the comments on that tweet to get a sense of the sentiment back then, and see how everyone pounced on me!

i don’t need to be a prophet to guess how most of those critics have fared with how the market has played out so far 😅

BonkFun has won. for good!

now the good news:

even without the launchpad advantage, Pumpfun remains one of the most profitable businesses in crypto... by far

it currently generates over $1 million in daily fees

around $500K of that is still coming from the launchpad, despite losing dominance

and they’re also making fees from the DEX

plus, they’re aggressively positioning themselves as THE crypto streaming platform

i don’t know what the future holds, nor can I predict tomorrow’s fees, but by crypto valuation standards, PUMP looks relatively undervalued here

many have asked me what advice i would give Pumpfun if i were to advise them

if I could give just one piece of advice: focus your comms on the future, not the past

people need to see Pumpfun as more than just a launchpad

yes, they innovated the launchpad category—but now the focus should now be:

launchpad + DEX + streaming — as a full product suite

also, improve your comms. treat your users better

the PUMP tokenomics have been so far opaque, with some key details only coming out through rumor mills or influencer leaks

Pumpfun should use official channels more effectively

stop leaving users hanging on major issues and most importantly: stop treating users like they don’t matter e.g. how the airdrop has been handled so far

5. $BONK remains the better R/R trade, based on fundamentals

i’ve written a lot about this recently, so I won’t repeat it all here

scroll through my profile if you’re interested. you’ll find several posts

this post is about $PUMP, because many close friends who went in heavily are now close to capitulating

to be honest, I debated whether to even write this

every time I talk about $PUMP, people come for me... even though i've been more right than wrong on the issue

and frankly, I’m tired of the drama

if people would rather be wrong and lose money than even consider that someone with an opposing view *might* be right, that’s on them

but too many of my homies are in this trade

many are down bad

and I fear some are about to capitulate… right before $PUMP takes off and makes new ATHs

so this post is for them!

[Blake Burge @blakeaburge]

Underrated social skill: Letting someone have their moment. One-uppers are exhausting. Real confidence lets others feel seen, heard, celebrated. Don’t hijack the story. Don't bring it back to you. Secure people don't steal attention.