When you expect something to go one way while you have close to no influence on the outcome you’re in for some disappointment
Where there are humans there’s always room for growth, error, change and expecting other humans to act the way you think is right is up to you but that’s not how it usually works
You should always expect the unexpected and adapt to it, I know it hurts working for something and thinking someone else is fumbling your whole plan but it is how it is
Also, I think the best trades are the ones that rely as little as possible on human randomness because the more a human is in charge of the outcome of your trade the more uncertainty there is and the more uncertainty the less overall edge you have
Simple example with memecoins that send way more easily once dev dumps his allocation and the community takes it over
We’re not in a casino as opposed to some people like to think, you can build very solid edge with commitment and time in the markets that you will never have at a poker table or playing blackjack against the house
You can’t win if you expect things to go your way only, the way you designed it in your head for months and months after countless sleepless nights
The market doesn’t care about your thesis unless it’s right, if anything it has more chances to end up being the total opposite scenario, be ready to adapt, quickly
I’ll add one last thing: *most* humans overate their own ideas and expectations on the other hand are very rarely met by reality once it’s time to deliver
Don’t get fooled and most importantly don’t fool yourself
🚨What happened in Crypto in the last 12h?🚨
- Binance Launchpool $REZ
- $HBAR BlackRock
- $WLD inflating their supply
- $GF Rebranding
- $CHZ New tokenomics
- $FRONT Final stage of mainnet
- $PORTAL 1st Launchpad
- ArchLoot Ticker change
👇
• $ALT - ArchLoot announced the ticker change $ALT to $AL, Migration from BEP20 to ERC20.
• $BNB - Binance announced the launch of the $REZ Launchpool. Trading starting April 30.
• $CHZ - The Chiliz CEO announced that the "Dragon8" testnet, intended to test new tokenomics, will be launched within a few days.
• $FRONT - @selfchainxyz has announced it is in the final stages of preparing for the mainnet launch. This means that the $FRONT to $SELF rebranding is imminent.
• $GALA - Voyager: Ascension from @rflxtstudio is launching today on GalaChain.
• $GF - GuildFi announced rebranding to @ZentryHQ. The $GF will be converted to the $ZENT in a 1-for-10 split on April 25.
• $HBAR - Hedera announced the tokenization of BlackRock's US Treasury MMF with ArchaxEx and OwneraIO.
• $JUP - Jupiter has teased that the Mobile app beta will be released in May.
• $LSK - Lisk team has set the $LSK migration snapshot date for May 21.
• $MAVIA - Heroes of Mavia announced the launch of their second major user acquisition campaign across Instagram, Facebook, TikTok, and more.
• $PORTAL - Portal’s first official Launchpad @playsomo $SOMO pre-sale begins on April 25, 3pm UTC.
• $RON - @themachinesgame open beta has been released, and according to @Jihoz_Axie, the Play 2 Airdrop is planned to start soon.
• $WLD - Worldcoin announced that will be increasing the circulating supply of $WLD by as much as 19% in the next six months.
* * *
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Thanks for reading!🫡
Attention $CHEX community: our first issuance is live!
Leveraging Chintai's technology, @GreeniumX has launched BioChar carbon-credits.
This pilot project is the first of several carbon credits projects GX Labs is launching with Chintai in 2024.
Learn more here: https://t.co/00TjJx9uWw
There’s no such things as fair value, undervalued or mispriced in financial markets but crypto is definitely the most inefficient market out there
Chintai has a white label client with over $1B on their platform, more than any competitor in the RWA field
1 client, and they have a bunch more already working with them and more to be announced soon
Also, every single existing RWA’d product out there can be done in a better form and totally regulated via Chintai, it’s just a matter of time before it becomes the go-to product when it comes to RWA (already is for most institutional clients signed with Chintai btw)
$CHEX is a multi billion $ token floating at around $200M fully diluted as I write this and every single white labeled product Chintai releases is powered by $CHEX, open the whitepaper and you’ll understand the whole vision revolves around the token
I have no affiliations with the project, I bought this on open market just like everyone else but I’m a vocal supporter of hard work and things done right, this is the exact feeling I get from this team
If you are $CHEX pilled or interested in diving more into it I suggest following my good friend @Trim_Bot below, he’s a very sharp mind when it comes to navigating this space and making early bets and of course he covers all lot of stuff Chintai related
Join the @GrugsLair and @LootRealms at the @Starknet event in London to play a game of on-chain Risk by the @zKorp_ team.
We are playing high stakes. Degens only allowed
$1k in $STRK to participate. Winner takes all.
The Grug's Lair team arrived at #StarkCityLondon, @Starknet
Today, there will be many interesting talks, and we will showcase a new demo of @RRisingRevenant
If you see a noticeable group of degens, that's us (@LootRealms hoodie). Come by and say hi! Let's connect!
80% of profits are made in the last 20% of the cycle.
Learn how to recognize an alteason and make the most out of it.
What triggers an altseason is not the percentage return of $BTC but its wealth effect. And since September 2023, Bitcoin's market cap has grown by $941 billion.
Almost 1 trillion dollars.
• $1 trillion is roughly the size of the entire economy of Saudi Arabia, Netherlands, or Switzerland.
• $1 trillion is 2.89% of United States national debt.
• $1 trillion is 2.5% of the S&P500 total market cap.
• $1 trillion is bigger than almost all Sovereign Wealth Funds.
Given that most altcoins are relatively small in size, it will not take much of this wealth to significantly increase their price.
The whole altcoins market cap, excluding ETH and major stablecoins, is currently $588 billion.
So, when will this happen?
Probably, once $IBIT, $FBTC, $ARKB, and all other Bitcoin ETFs are at 100%+ from their launch price.
Rarely in the past tradFi investors had the opportunity to double their investment in a matter of a few months.
Bitcoin's big gains will boost their ego and confidence, pushing them to start exploring other coins. It's like making money in big companies and then taking a chance on smaller startups.
• Wealth Effect - As people experience gains in their wealth, they may feel more financially secure and confident. This increased sense of wealth can lead to a willingness to take on more risk and pursue higher returns.
• Overconfidence Bias - As investors experience success in one area of the market, they may become overconfident in their abilities to predict future market movements or identify lucrative investment opportunities.
• Recency Bias - If an investor has recently experienced significant gains, they may extrapolate this success to other areas of the market or investment opportunities without fully considering the inherent risks or differences in asset classes.
Whether it's the wealth effect, these biases, or all of them, we'll soon see a flywheel bigger than what we experienced in the previous cycles.
The percentage increase might be smaller this cycle, but the dollar scale is exponentially higher.
It took 57 days for the ETFs to be up 50% from launch. At $93,000, day-1 buyers will be up 100%.
At $72,900 and $97,100, the huge inflows between the 8th and 16th of February ($7.16 billion) will be up respectively 50% and 100%
At $85,700 and $114,600, those who entered between the 26th and 28th of February ($1.77 billion of inflows) will be up 50% and 100%.
It's good to keep them as a reference because this is what wealth effect is which leads to more risk taking.
What we need to keep an eye on are CEX inflows/outflows. Since 11 January, these were the inflows of the three most utilized CEXs:
• OKX - $1 billion of inflows
• Robinhood - $263 million of inflows
• Binance - $247 million of inflows
— Data from Defillama —
In the meantime, the cumulative inflow for ETFs reached $10+ billion.
It's clear that ETFs are the new preferred way to buy and hold $BTC.
On the other hand, no ETFs exist for altcoins (it can change). CEXs first and DeFi afterward are the only ways to get exposure to them.
CEXs inflows increasing = investors looking to buy altcoins.
Another way to look at it is by comparing the growth of stablecoins market cap and TOTAL2.
April 2021 - April 2022
• Stablecoins Market Cap: +$125 billion
• TOTAL2 Market Cap: +$430 billion
October 2023 - March 2024
• Stablecoins Market Cap: +$21 billion
• TOTAL2 Market Cap: +$707 billion
Money isn't entering the market as in the previous years.
Is this cycle different?
No. Simply, there is a step more to enter the market.
We passed from
CEXs → DEXs
to
ETFs → CEXs → DEXs
But, this additional step will push into CEXs hundreds of billions of inflows.
It only requires some patience.
Where are we heading?
If we have the same patterns as the previous cycle, we'll see a ~38% dominance for alts (excluding BTC - ETH - USDT - USDC - DAI) at the top.
With an overall $7.8 trillion crypto market cap, the market cap for alts would be around $2.96 trillion.
A 5.1x from where we stand right now.
The final stages will come when flows into CEXs/DeFi are at par or even higher than ETF ones.
'Impatience with actions, patience with results'
- Naval.