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Something I've noticed in the past is episodes of low 30-day realized volatility have coincided with lows in the crypto market...
The magic level in BTC is 20%... every time it got there it was the cyclical low or preceded a larger leg higher in an early bull market. 1/
H/t @patrickbetdavid for this find. Minimum wage was $.75 back then… $30 a week. Insane what our monetary policies have done to housing and cost of living. #inflation
@AurelienOhayon I like where you are going with this… but there is that accumulation that happens after a bottom is in. Maybe another bottom retest. So your timeframe may need to extend out a bit.
@cobie I always thought this is how insurance worked. Can’t get it unless you don’t need it. Can’t use it because they move the goal posts. Just never be late on that premium.
Miner margins have been getting compressed a bit lately with the following mix: Hash rate up, difficulty up, and BTC price down. Hash price is its lowest since late 2020.
Starting to see some miners trimming their BTC (bottom right).
These are the four charts I'll be watching: