@firstballtolast

[Antony Blinken @ABlinken]

Thoughts on the “Ceasefire” with Iran:

President Trump should share the ceasefire agreement with the American people.  They deserve to see it and draw their own conclusions about the results of the president’s war. Just as they should have been informed before he launched it.

From what’s been reported, it’s a bad deal to end a misguided war of President Trump’s choosing. The only thing worse would be to continue the war that has proven so costly in lives lost — including U.S. service members — and taxpayer dollars spent without making the American people safer or their lives better.

By President Trump’s own terms, the war is a failure.

The Iranian regime is intact and its military wing more empowered, while the Iranian people are more impoverished, repressed and desperate.

Iran apparently retains a significant supply of missiles and drones and the productive capacity to make more. It has renewed links to lethal proxies in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and elsewhere. The ceasefire agreement seems to be silent about these issues

The attempt to “re-obliterate” Iran’s nuclear program — which President Trump claimed to have wiped out last year — failed. Iran still has the highly enriched uranium it had produced before the war started, along with centrifuges to spin the uranium into weapons-grade material. Maybe that will be addressed in the negotiations that are supposed to start this week. But at what price in terms of sanctions relief and assets unfrozen? At best, we’ll get back to something that looks like the JCPOA — the nuclear deal negotiated by President Obama without going to war that put Iran’s nuclear program in a box. President Trump tore up the JCPOA in 2018 and then failed to replace it. There’s reason to doubt we will come away with anything as strong as the JCPOA — which took two years to negotiate in partnership with all the major powers — in 60 days, playing a far weaker hand. And by the way, if the president tries to claim credit for Iran renouncing nuclear weapons as part of any agreement, look no further than the very first paragraph of the JCPOA, which contains the same pledge.

The only “achievement” of the ceasefire is the likely re-opening the Strait of Hormuz — which was open before the war started. And we will apparently pay Iran to do so, in the form of waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil. Iran has now demonstrated the capacity to stop or slow the passage of oil, natural gas, fertilizer and other critical products upon which so much of the world depend. Going forward, it will almost certainly find ways to collect “fees” for safe passage that will help entrench the regime.

Don’t expect a return to normal any time soon, if at all. Crude oil prices will drop from the record highs they reached — but they’re unlikely to fall to pre-war levels. We will all pay for a sustained inflationary effect. It will take time to restart oil and gas production, repair infrastructure, refill dangerously depleted stockpiles, clear mines, and restore confidence. Just as it will take a lot of time to replenish our own supply of offensive and defensive missiles, to the detriment of our deterrent in other parts of the world.

Maybe the only positive development is the world’s renewed focus on renewable energy as a way to break the stranglehold of the Strait. But China will be the big winner as the world’s leader in wind, solar, EV’s and batteries — further expanding its influence — while the Trump administration is paying wind farms to shut down and gutting incentives to make us more competitive in EVs. (I just returned from Norway, where more than 90 percent of the new cars sold last year were full EV’s. Norway may be ahead of the curve, but we’re driving right off the road).

Meanwhile, the administration achieved a terrible trifecta of alienating our partners in Europe (insulted and threatened for two years, not consulted on the war and then lambasted for not helping bail us out), Asia (which bore the greatest impact of high energy prices and rising scarcity) and the Middle East (the primary target of Iranian retaliation), while diminishing our standing and credibility everywhere.

Most of all, President Trump’s war of choice has failed the ultimate foreign policy test: it has failed to make the American people better off. At a time when more and more American families are struggling to make ends meet, this war has made filling everything from the gas tank to the grocery cart to medical prescriptions harder and more expensive.

We should all be glad the war is over — for now. No doubt President Trump will claim credit for ending it. But that’s like an arsonist boasting about putting out a fire he started after half the house has been burnt down.

[@firstballtolast @firstballt99402]

@JoyceCarolOates Please keep wasting your time with us 🙏

[Bill Kristol @BillKristol]

"Trump’s claims that the ballroom would go up with zero taxpayer spending were a total lie...Tens of millions of public funds have already gone into the project...internal cost estimates have been significantly higher than officials acknowledged."

https://t.co/QDWCHR8Y81

[@firstballtolast @firstballt99402]

@JakeSherman ‘Taxpayers funding’ isn’t the best framing.. this is literally looting..

[Mark S. Zaid @MarkSZaidEsq]

I lean more towards form of truth & reconciliation commission to expose illegal/unethical conduct committed during this Admin rather than prosecution, but if anyone deserves serious look by future admin/Congress, it is Miller. He scares even insiders.
https://t.co/uCDcxPyD5Y

[@firstballtolast @firstballt99402]

@ClippingHOF @InternetH0F I think it’s more impressive he had 40k followers already..

[Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss]

JFK once invited to dinner 49 Nobel laureates, Robert Frost, William Styron, Ernest Hemingway, James Baldwin, Katherine Anne Porter, John Dos Passos, James Farrell and Lionel and Diana Trilling, and others. His line on the occasion became famous: “I think this is the most extraordinary collection of talent, of human knowledge, that has ever been gathered together at the White House—with the possible exception of when Thomas Jefferson dined alone."

Some of you were alive when that happened.

[Gavin Newsom @GavinNewsom]

The White House was built to serve the American people.

Tonight it was used to promote a company the President owns stock in, sell subscriptions, promote corporate sponsors, push Trump crypto, and enrich the President and his family.

The founders warned us about kings enriching themselves from public office.

They did not fight a revolution for this.

[Emoluments Clause @Emolclause]

#BREAKING: Hayes: “It has been clear to anyone paying attention that Donald Trump, the guy who did January 6th, the guy who insists he won the popular vote in 2016 and created a whole commission that took over a year to confirm, no, he still lost by three million votes, the guy who insists that California, yes that California, a state which he lost his closest race by 20 points, actually voted for him in all its elections but then rigged the count, the guy who has pushed this totally unprecedented lawless effort to rig the congressional maps for the midterms, that guy was always going to use every trick he could, legal or not, to retain power in the midterm  elections, we have known that, and now this week, that is coming into very very sharp focus.” 😳

[@firstballtolast @firstballt99402]

@3YearLetterman It’s close.. Several of the punch lines don’t land.. And he’s pretty over the top in his delivery.. But historic nonetheless

[John Jackson @hissgoescobra]

I want to give you guys some facts about General Chappie James. He wasn’t a “DEI” hire—he was a complete badass that had to overcome MORE than any white pilot. Did 178 combat missions—that’s like 7 bomber tours on a B-17 in WWII.

His medal count? Impeccable. 3 Distinguished Flying Crosses, 14 Air Medals, Two Legions of Merit, and a Defense Distinguished Service Medal. One of the original Tuskegee Airmen, the first four-star African American General.

Hegseth couldn’t sniff the level of soldiering and warrior that was in Chappie’s DNA. God bless him. And Hegseth took down his picture from a hallway like a racist little child, which is what he is.

[@firstballtolast @firstballt99402]

@OptaJack Dude needs a dating app deal.. Great at making passes..

[@firstballtolast @firstballt99402]

This!!

[Hunter Biden @HunterBiden]

To everyone so eager to cancel someone for a tattoo they got at age 22, a drunk text, a selfie they took in the middle of a mental health crisis:

Show us your laptop.
Show us your iCloud.
Open your entire digital life to your worst enemy. No context. No filter. No explanation.

You won’t.

You won’t because you know what I know. Any one of us, frozen at our worst moment, photographed in our lowest hour, looks like a monster. Looks like a stranger. Looks like someone who deserves to be cast out.

That is not who we are.

My mom and baby sister were killed in a car accident when I was just a kid. Cancer took my brother Beau, my best friend and my rock. I battled alcoholism. I battled addiction. I chose the coward’s way out more times than I can count.

For years I believed the defining chapters of my life were written by tragedy, loss, and shame.

I no longer believe that.

Pain can shape us. Loss can humble us. Failures can leave scars that never fully fade. But none of them have the authority to define us.

And it sure as hell ain’t the critic that counts.

That authority belongs to us alone-the person in the arena.

Every setback presents a choice. Play the victim, or cut the bullshit and take ownership for who we become next.

Life does not determine our character. It reveals it.

Again and again we are asked the same question. When shit happens, what next?

We are not defined by what happened to us. We are not defined by the worst photo, the worst text, the worst tattoo, the worst night. We are defined by the person we choose to become. And by the courage to choose that person, every single day.

So before you reach for the gavel - show us your laptop.

You won’t.

The whole world saw mine. And I am still here. Still becoming. Still choosing. Still standing.

That is the only definition that matters.

[@firstballtolast @firstballt99402]

@MattMcBradley Of course they did!!! This is 10000% about Space X IPO tomorrow. Full stop...

[@firstballtolast @firstballt99402]

@PaulFMcNamee @BenRothenberg @QuentinMoynet https://t.co/H20anyMO2H Couldn't agree more Paul..

[@firstballtolast @firstballt99402]

@Gill_Gross 💯 %

[@firstballtolast @firstballt99402]

@jon_wertheim @TennisHalloFame And a Gold medal 🥇

[@firstballtolast @firstballt99402]

@LewisT83756025 @wolverlorian @VinnysCorner1 QB rating of 86.5 with 12 picks and they wouldn't let him throw the ball further than 15 yards. An elite defense saved his bacon. Pats fan through and through I am. I'm sure Hostetler's season was worse, as was Foltz..But as a starter, he was pretty meh

[@firstballtolast @firstballt99402]

I think we learned this on day 2 of macroeconomics 1. Strong labor market creates wage pressure, costs more for quality labor, puts pressure on profit margins, affecting future earnings projections, hence creating downward pressure on equities. What's good for the proletariat is not good for the bourgeoisie. Dust off KM Capital. It's all in there.