When you test a new ad concept.
You can't just launch 1-2 ads and call it a test.
You need volume to find the winners.
The Math:
•Average hit rate in ad accounts = 5%
(meaning 5 out of 100 ads will be winners)
•If you launch only 3 ads for a concept, statistically you'll find 0-1 winners
•If you launch 10 ads, you'll find 0.5 winners
(basically a coin flip)
•If you launch 20 ads, you'll find 1 winner
(much more likely)
Why This Matters:
Most people make 2-3 ads for a concept, they flop, and they assume the concept itself is bad.
But they never gave it a fair shot. They didn't launch enough volume to find the actual winners within that concept.
Real Example:
Let's say your concept is:
Persona: Women 35-40 with energy issues
Angle: Creatine for hormonal fatigue
Offer: Buy 2 Get 1 Free
You could make:
Ad 1: VSL format, problem agitation hook
Ad 2: UGC format, curiosity gap hook
Ad 3: Static image, contrarian truth hook
Ad 4: VSL format, social proof hook
Ad 5: UGC format, problem agitation hook
...all the way to 20+ ads
Within those 20 ads, maybe:
Ad 7 crushes (gets 3x ROAS)
Ad 14 crushes (gets 2.8x ROAS)
Ad 19 performs okay (gets 1.5x ROAS)
The other 17 underperform.
But if you only made 3 ads and none of them were
Ad 7 or Ad 14, you'd kill the entire concept.
The winners did exist.
But you just never found them.