Firsthand Bitcoin

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[Firsthand Bitcoin @firsthandbtc]

Over 20.09M Bitcoin are safeguarded by a 12-24 word combination of these words.

Bear with me while I explain why this is KEY to bitcoins impenetrable security:

Bitcoin seed phrases are drawn from the BIP-39 wordlist, which contains exactly 2,048 (2¹¹) distinct words.

Entropy: 256 bits of raw random data.
Checksum: 8 bits appended at the end (total bit length 264)
Total Possible Phrases: 2²⁵⁶

A Bitcoin miner = a machine designed for SHA256

Brute-forcing is not just picking a word combination; each chosen phrase must be derived into a private key using PBKDF2 with HMAC-SHA512 over 2,048 hashing rounds.

To put 2 and 2 into physical context:

Time to Brute-Force (Using a Supercomputer checking 1 Trillion guesses per second)

1.83 x 10^57 years

133 quinquagintillion times the age of the universe

Grains of sand on Earth: ~7.5 x 10^18

But how fast can a Quantum Computer guess a Bitcoin Seed Phrase?

Quantum computers do not guess combinations one by one like traditional computers.

They use Grover's Algorithm, which cuts the size of the search space down to its square root.

Quantum clock speeds are physically much slower than classical computer chips.

Every single step in Grover's algorithm must process 2,048 rounds of HMAC-SHA512 hashing inside a quantum circuit.

Grover's algorithm is sequential and cannot be easily split across millions of machines.

Time to Crack (Assuming a future Quantum Computer doing 10 million operations per second):

~10.7 sextillion years

Even with Grover's Algorithm, a 24-word BIP-39 seed phrase takes over 700 billion times the age of the universe for a quantum computer to guess.

I know these are massive incomprehensible numbers, let me phrase better:

A 24-word seed space is:

~15.4 octodecillion times larger than every single grain of sand on Earth combined.

~8.91 septillion times larger than all the atoms that make up the entire planet Earth.

~2.68 decillion times larger than all the possible scrambled configurations of a 3x3 Rubik's Cube.

~8.91 quindecillion times larger than every drop of water in all of Earth's oceans combined.

Still incomprehensible, sorry lol.

The most secure store of value in the universe.

[Firsthand Bitcoin @firsthandbtc]

How hosting works, from checkout to first payout https://t.co/YbgPtKjC98

[Firsthand Bitcoin @firsthandbtc]

"You need a warehouse and a fortune to start mining."

You need one machine, one bitcoin address, and somewhere with cheap power to put it.

The warehouse can be someone else's. The bitcoin lands in your wallet.

[Firsthand Bitcoin @firsthandbtc]

What a bitcoin miner actually does all day https://t.co/hBNq0FPSQ4

[Firsthand Bitcoin @firsthandbtc]

Every bitcoin splits into 100 million pieces.

So a single machine doesn't need to win a whole bitcoin. In a pool it gets its fraction of every block, paid in small slices that add up to more BTC every day.

[Firsthand Bitcoin @firsthandbtc]

https://t.co/nD4w2Lto59

[Firsthand Bitcoin @firsthandbtc]

The reward is the subsidy that got the network started. Fees are the business it grows into. We'd rather own a machine in that business.

[Firsthand Bitcoin @firsthandbtc]

When the block reward shrinks toward zero, who pays miners?

The people sending bitcoin. And that is the better deal for whoever owns the machines.

[Firsthand Bitcoin @firsthandbtc]

A holder can wait for the price.

A producer is paid for every block the network needs, in bitcoin, by the reward or by the people using it.

[Firsthand Bitcoin @firsthandbtc]

Options traders hold about $4.5bn of bets on bitcoin going above $90k, $95k and $100k.

Every option has a deadline. When it passes, the bet pays or it's worthless.

A machine on cheap power holds the same view with no deadline, and gets paid in bitcoin every day while it waits.

[Firsthand Bitcoin @firsthandbtc]

https://t.co/oNZopyD7AX

[Firsthand Bitcoin @firsthandbtc]

Don't trust, verify.

Most bitcoiners stop at their keys.

Producers take it back to the source: their own machine, hashing live on a pool they chose, paying straight into their own wallet.

[Firsthand Bitcoin @firsthandbtc]

Every generation since 2015, charted https://t.co/ePH0G6TYgG

[Firsthand Bitcoin @firsthandbtc]

"Wait for the next generation of mining machines."

The most efficient miner on the market went from more than 250 J/TH in 2015 to under 10 today.

In the last year it moved from 9.5 to 9.4.

A year of waiting bought about 1%. A year of running bought a year of bitcoin.

[Firsthand Bitcoin @firsthandbtc]

Why a laptop, a phone or a graphics card never wins a block: https://t.co/DFxwKbaZHE

[Firsthand Bitcoin @firsthandbtc]

"Mining was over once laptops couldn't do it."

It wasn't over. It specialised.

Since 2013 it runs on chips built for nothing else. One modern machine does the work of about 400,000 early-2010s graphics cards.

The hobby ended. The industry is open to anyone with a machine.

[Firsthand Bitcoin @firsthandbtc]

Four years, month by month, through the 2022 low and the 2024 halving: https://t.co/20JtejLg0l

[Firsthand Bitcoin @firsthandbtc]

September 2022, ten weeks before bitcoin's bear-market low, a water-cooled S19 Pro+ Hyd starts hashing.

Four years and one halving later it has mined 0.3764 BTC, at about $25,000 of electricity per bitcoin.

None of it has been sold.