I'm going to make some obvious points.
(1) Blowing up all the oil infrastructure in the Middle East is an insane idea, and may well result in a global economic crash and humanitarian crisis unrivaled in the lives of those now living. We're talking about the price of everything everywhere rising, from food to gas, at a moment when inflation was already high. All of that will be laid at the feet of the authors of this war.
(2) The antebellum status quo of Feb 27, 2026 was just not that bad, but we're unlikely to return to it. Expect indefinite, long-term, ongoing disruptions to everything out of the Middle East.
(3) Also assume tech financing crashes for the indefinite future. The genius plan to get the Gulf states caught in the crossfire has incinerated much of the funding for LPs, for datacenters, and for IPOs. Anyone in tech who supported this war may soon learn the meaning of "force majeure" as funding gets yanked.
(4) Many capital allocators will instead be allocating much further down Maslow's hierarchy of needs, towards useful basic things like food and energy.
(5) It's fortunate that all those progressives yelled about the "climate crisis." Yes, their reasoning about timelines was wrong, and much of the money was wasted in graft, but the result was right: we all need energy independence from the Middle East, pronto. It's also fortunate that Elon and China autistically took climate seriously. Now they're going to need to ship a billion solar panels, electric vehicles, batteries, nuclear power plants, and the like to get everyone off oil, immediately.
(6) It's not just an oil and gas problem, of course. It's also a fertilizer problem, and a chemical precursor problem. Maybe some new sources will come online at the new prices, but it takes time to dial stuff up, particularly at this scale, so shortages are almost a certainty.
That said, China has actually scaled up coal-to-chemicals[a,c] (C2C), and there's also something more sci-fi called Power-to-X[b] which turns arbitrary power + water + air into hydrocarbons. But all of that will need to get accelerated. I have a background in chemical engineering so may start funding things in this area.
(7) Ultimately, this war is going to result in tremendous blame for anyone associated with it. It's a no-win scenario to blow up this much infrastructure for so many people. Simply not worth it for whatever objective they thought they were going to attain. But unless you're actually in a position to stop the madness, the pragmatic thing to do is: scramble to mitigate the fallout to yourself, your business, and your people.
[a]: https://t.co/ITat4tmAFd
[b]: https://t.co/bWwiSQcgyt
[c]: https://t.co/FQCqMhy5d3
🙄Let’s make a deal @ProfMBassetti…Italy can pay for the security of the entire Western Hemisphere and Europe, and the USA can redirect our savings towards free healthcare for all citizens! I like it! About time we mixed things up from the current status quo.
Desidero formulare i migliori auguri di pronta guarigione a #LindseyVonn che ora tornerà a casa sua negli Stati Uniti.
La Vonn ha potuto apprezzare lo straordinario sistema sanitario pubblico italiano che si è presa cura di lei con tre interventi chirurgici. In Italia, a differenza che nel suo paese, ci prendiamo cura di tutti: ricchi o poveri, vip o anonimi, Americani o italiani.
Se ne avrà occasione, spieghi a Trump e a Kennedy Jr cosa vuol dire prendersi cura di chi sta male.
No. You don’t get to launder this by calling him an “observer,” as if he were a neutral bystander who happened to be shot for no reason.
Everyone knows what’s happening. Literal communists are operating in lockstep with taxpayer-funded NGOs to mass-recruit people, whip them into a frenzy, and deploy them in defense of their own interests. The recruiting pipeline is obvious and consistent: the disabled, the mentally ill, the elderly. We’ve all seen the footage.
Organizations like States at the Core then train these people to obstruct ICE. They drill escalation, not restraint. Doxxing. Harassment. Following agents. Surrounding vehicles. Screaming. Conditioning people to intervene at any cost.
And it works. Watch the video I attached. A small woman steps alone in front of a moving car. The physics don’t matter to her. Self-preservation doesn’t matter. Her survival instinct has been stripped out and replaced with obedience.
That doesn’t happen organically. You know it. I know it. Everyone knows it. And not one of you has said, “Maybe don’t do this. Maybe don’t send people to play chicken with vehicles and guns.” You didn’t speak up because dead bodies are useful to you. They justify the next riot.
Once you condition people this way, it’s inevitable that someone shows up armed. It’s inevitable that ICE agents are threatened. It’s inevitable that you misframe it afterward. It’s inevitable that you roll out barricades and prepare for a night of fire in Minneapolis. And yes, it’s inevitable that you push people into this in subzero weather like lab animals—MK-Ultra levels of behavioral control.
You are despicable because this is all about money. About keeping the grift alive. You’re willing to put people in harm’s way, to break them, even to kill them, so your funding and your lifestyle continue uninterrupted.
The so-called “observer” was a victim, but not of ICE.
He was a victim of you.
In 2022, Obama gave a speech at Stanford Cyber Policy Center advocating sweeping censorship of the Internet. Now, Public has discovered the same Center last month hosted a secret meeting with EU, UK, Brazil, & Australia officials to plot global censorship — including of the US.
Can't miss Drinks with Raoul tomorrow at 6p ET
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Over time, due to aging demographics, governments need to borrow more money to support GDP growth to pay interest on the debt.
At over 100% of GDP in debt there isn't enough economic cash flow to fund the debt growth so it gets "printed" via Fed Net Liquidity and also forced, via regulation, onto the balance sheet of the banks.
That debases the currency and lowers the denominator, optically making scarce assets more valuable.
Crypto (Mainly Bitcoin) is the life raft as it not only offsets the annual 8% debasement but also gains value due to adoption effects.
These two charts remain the most important chart in all macro and the ones the least people understand.
It's all demographics. It always has been
The Everything Code TL;DR.
The labor force participation rate isn’t going to rise anytime soon – it’s set to keep declining over time. This is a structural problem…
We’ve got aging demographics, falling birth rates, and now the rise of automation.
Humans are already being replaced by AI and robots at a staggering pace, and that shift is only just beginning. This is deflationary.
It also reinforces the need for ongoing stimulus to keep the system afloat.
Fewer workers. More tech. Same debts…