Keith Fitz-Gerald

I help investors in their quest to beat Wall Street at its own game by sharing what I've learned 45+ years in global markets. Private investor/mkt strategist

[Keith Fitz-Gerald @fitz_keith]

1 - My Investment Strategy & Philosophy

Private investor/trader who believes in concentrated portfolio of companies making products/ services the world cannot live without and growing despite the pandemic, politics or any other short-term disruptions.

I call my approach …

[Keith Fitz-Gerald @fitz_keith]

Most funds make you pick a lane: growth or income. FIZY was built to ignore that choice. ​

$FIZY takes what we believe to be 20–30 of the market's most "Must-Have" companies and layers a weekly-distribution options overlay on top — one ticker, doing the work of two strategies. ​

Learn more about #FIZY, the Fitz-Gerald Must Have Portfolio® and Options Overlay ETF at https://t.co/GFYBtoWmZu.

[Keith Fitz-Gerald @fitz_keith]

The voice of experience

Tip o'the hat to @carleygarner 💯

[DeCarleyTrading.com @carleygarner]

The markets are open, but the banks are closed. This means leveraged assets are vulnerable to price squeezes that defy fundamentals. Stay on your toes; holiday markets can go rogue. Also, thank you to our veterans!

[Keith Fitz-Gerald @fitz_keith]

Quantum is still largely traded as a leveraged AI proxy.

On Nov 3, Xanadu announced plans for a U.S. listing. D-Wave $QBTS fell 15% and Rigetti $RGTI fell nearly 9% on the news.

Both reported yesterday.

$QBTS: revenue +21% to $4.5M, YTD bookings +611%, RPO $38.3M.
$RGTI: revenue $1.4M, down 28% and well short of estimates. The ~$20M FY26 guide depends on one system passing customer acceptance in Q4.

Many investors have stopped paying attention or written quantum off.
We're talking about a technology with the potential to change drug discovery and medicine, financial modeling and portfolio management, and cybersecurity - for starters.

$IONQ very much remains best in class in this space, imho.

[Keith Fitz-Gerald @fitz_keith]

$CRWV beat and raised across the board:

• Revenue: $3.66B (+168% YoY), above the top of its own guide
• Adj. operating income: $379M vs. $200–260M guided
• Adj. operating margin: 10%, up from 5% last quarter
• Backlog: $132.5B (+138% YoY)
• Active power: 1.7GW+, doubled since January

Raised:
• FY26 revenue: $13.0–13.3B
• FY26 adj. operating income: $1.275–1.375B
• Exit run-rate: $20–21B

The backlog alone is ~10x this year's revenue.🤔

[Keith Fitz-Gerald @fitz_keith]

One more ridge to go… running today in honor of all who served, their families and those who no longer have that option.

Thank you for stepping up when others couldn’t or wouldn’t.

Miss you guys! 💯

[Keith Fitz-Gerald @fitz_keith]

@naninani6 Right back at ya! 💯

[Keith Fitz-Gerald @fitz_keith]

Thanks for having me back, @CowGuyClose! 😀

We had a chance to talk about the hot CPI print, why rates are for traders and not investors, why robotics is getting crowded fast with everyone from $TSLA’s Optimus to $AMZN jumping in, $NVDA, and more.

Thanks to everyone who tuned in! If you missed it, catch the replay here 👇

https://t.co/VRVINzyomR

[Keith Fitz-Gerald @fitz_keith]

Anthropic’s IPO: the price came down. The risks haven’t.

Anthropic set its IPO terms this morning. It’s offering 825 million shares at $70 to $78 apiece, valuing the company at roughly $1 trillion to $1.4 trillion… a big step down from the roughly $2 trillion investors were bandying about only a month ago.

Not that this is unexpected.

I’ve been warning repeatedly that the company isn’t all that, especially lately.

Here’s where I think it stinks and why investors ought to be VERY leery.

NONE of the dangers highlighted in the company’s S-1 have gone away…

… models that could slip out of control

… models that may not respond to the people running them, taking harmful actions nobody asked for

… technology the company itself admits could pose “catastrophic or existential risks to humanity”

Oh, and one last little gem.

The filing also says that, given the potential scale of a catastrophic AI incident, no single insurer, and possibly not the insurance industry as a whole, may have enough capacity to cover it.

Translation?

Anything resembling safety commitments may come at shareholders’ expense (while early insiders and the investment bankers will ride off into the sunset with their saddlebags full of your money) 🤦‍

Once again, Wall Street has privatized big profits but socialized risk which, imho, begs the questions where the regulators who are ostensibly charged with protecting the investing public are in all this but I digress.

But, but, but…

$NVDA, $MSFT and $GOOG are all buying blocks of shares.

Yeah, they have to because they are Anthropic’s chip and cloud suppliers which means that a big chunk of that money flows right back to them as orders.

This is like Wall Street paying to fund specific “associations” and “educational undertakings” that are thinly veiled guises intended to promote more trading which, you guessed it, generates billions in fees for them.

Or, if you prefer, like a Vegas casino comping your room and the buffet because it knows exactly where you’ll be spending the rest of the weekend… the house almost always gets its money back.

Individual investors like us are just that… individuals.

There’s an old saying, if you look around the room and you can’t spot the patsy… it’s you.

Keith’s Investing Tip: IPOs are one of the most rigged games of all. If you’re tempted, let Anthropic report at least one quarter as a public company before you buy. That’s when you find out what the numbers look like once they have to stand on their own. Waiting rarely costs you the opportunity but very often saves you a bundle.

[Keith Fitz-Gerald @fitz_keith]

If you enjoyed my take, you may also enjoy the Five with Fitz!

I've published it entirely for free for years, and I will NEVER share, spam or partake in any slimy marketing because I hate that **** as much as you do!

People tell me it’s changed their lives – which is humbling as heck! 😀

Daily, free and actionable. 👇

https://t.co/TnjuyiqUUC

[Keith Fitz-Gerald @fitz_keith]

In today's Five with Fitz,

Jensen update: the White House weighs in

Yesterday I asked whether Jensen Huang will still be $NVDA's CEO by the end of the week.

Today the answer looks like a big asterisk.

US President Donald Trump says he spoke with Huang on Monday and asked him point-blank whether he knew the woman was a spy.

Jensen’s response?

According to Trump: “He said, ‘I had no idea that she was a spy,’ and I really believe him.” (Read) Then, in the same breath: “I know the FBI is looking into it in terms of something else.”

That’s the asterisk and a big one at that.

Meanwhile:

Nvidia’s board says it has “confidence in Jensen.” A committee of independent directors is investigating, with help from outside counsel.

House China hawks want Huang at a closed-door briefing on Nov 18.

The first shareholder class action hit federal court Monday, and more law firms are lining up.

Beijing calls the whole thing “groundless speculation” but seems to me that’s an insult to those who are actually groundless speculators.

None of this, however, answers the question that I think matters most.

What did he know, when and how?

As I noted Monday during a TV interview with Stuart Varney, there’s a bigger issue.

If Huang knowingly allowed or created conditions allowing the sales of restricted chips to Chinese “ghost companies” then HE is the national security problem.

Can you imagine if the US were to bring charges against Huang under the Economic Espionage Act or Conspiracy & Fraud Charges related to the same??!!!

Impossible you say?

In late October, an Nvidia spokesperson said Huang’s interactions with Ms. Huang were “not unusual or unexpected” and part of his job.

Ten days later, the board is investigating him.

That’s quite a shift.

Meanwhile, no word on Alice Huang’s whereabouts.

Imagine that. 🙄

Keith’s Investing Tip: If a worst-case headline knocks you off course, then you own too much. What’s happening is less about the company and AI than it is about position sizing.

And if you have no idea what that term means – position sizing – now’s a great time to learn. I’ll be here if that’s helpful.

[Keith Fitz-Gerald @fitz_keith]

$RKLB went into its Q3 earnings report down more than 25% from where it traded after last quarter.

Rocket Lab then reported adding $1.2B to its backlog in a single quarter.

Backlog went from $2.36B at the end of Q2 to $3.57B at the end of Q3. That’s signed work not yet recognized as revenue: roughly $1B in new launch contracts across Electron, HASTE and Neutron, plus $470M in Space Systems.

Revenue hit $268M, up 73% year over year. GAAP operating cash flow turned positive at $7.2M, the first positive print in several quarters.

[Keith Fitz-Gerald @fitz_keith]

All three indices are down in the early going on a “hotter than expected” inflation.

Right. 🙄

You and I have seen this movie so many times we’ve memorized the lines.

We know how it ends for smart investors.

BE SMART!

[Keith Fitz-Gerald @fitz_keith]

Is it time to buy $TSM ?

While everybody’s glued to the $NVDA soap opera, TSMC quietly dropped another monster number.

October sales hit a record NT$586.9 billion, or roughly $17.9 billion. That’s up 59.7% from a year ago and 14.7% from September.

One month in, TSMC has already booked about a third of what it expects for the whole quarter. 👏

No surprises here, imho.

Follow the money.

68% of TSMC’s revenue now comes from high-performance computing, which is code for AI. A year ago it was 57%.

Time to buy?

I prefer other names because I think they have considerably more profit potential but that’s beside the point.

My hat is off to everyone who owns TSMC! 😃

[Keith Fitz-Gerald @fitz_keith]

I was running a few minutes later than usual after this morning's workout - and a new 1 mile PR - but stopped for a moment to enjoy this...

Hope you're off to a great start today, too. 😃🌅💯

Strong body + strong mind = strong results

[Keith Fitz-Gerald @fitz_keith]

New distribution announcement! ​
The latest distribution for the Fitz-Gerald Must Have Portfolio® and Options Overlay ETF, $FIZY is now available.  ​
​
FIZY Distribution Rate: 14.00%​

FIZY Distribution Per Share: $0.0660​

Standardized Performance: https://t.co/e5eYE8Ctk9  ​

Prospectus: https://t.co/tqMCqSRh1O The 30-Day SEC Yield represents net investment income, which excludes option income, earned by the Fund over the 30-Day period ended at the most recent month-end, expressed as an annual percentage rate based on the Fund’s share price at the end of the 30-Day period.

[Keith Fitz-Gerald @fitz_keith]

@richardradiodxb 🙇

[Keith Fitz-Gerald @fitz_keith]

The Fitz-Gerald "Must Have" funds began with a simple premise: build a focused, concentrated portfolio of what we believe to be 20–30 of the world's most "must have" companies — positioned to capture the structural shifts already reshaping today's markets. ​

All in a single ticker.​

Learn more about #FITZ, the Fitz-Gerald Must-Have Portfolio® ETF, at https://t.co/CSZk7eMRr2.

[Keith Fitz-Gerald @fitz_keith]

In case you missed it... a great conversation with the venerable @Varneyco earlier today! 😀

We had a chat about the $NVDA situation and the real risk nobody seems to want to talk about.

Plus, my take on $CRWV, $QBTS & $RGTI … and why I prefer what I believe is a far better choice in the quantum space.

[Keith Fitz-Gerald @fitz_keith]

Let’s make it a strong week by starting with the super savvy @Varneyco at 0920EST

Meanwhile a perfect afternoon on what may be the most perfect bike I’ve ever owned.

Hope you’re doing well too! 😃💯

[Keith Fitz-Gerald @fitz_keith]

Will Jensen be CEO by the end of the week? 🤷‍♂️

Like millions of folks, I was stunned by news this weekend regarding $NVDA.

On Sunday, Jensen Huang admitted in a memo to staff that he’d been unfaithful to his wife. “There is no excuse for what I did. I am deeply sorry,” he wrote.

It’s a terribly unfortunate situation no matter how you cut it.

Personally and professionally.

From an investing perspective, the bigger issue is whether he knew or should have known that the woman with whom he apparently cheated was/is a Chinese intelligence operative.

Worse, did he knowingly allow billions of dollars in otherwise restricted chip sales to Chinese “ghost companies” – meaning companies that look real on paper but which are nothing more than shells operating on behalf of the People’s Liberation Army or other Chinese intelligence services – because he was personally compromised.

If so, it wouldn’t be a stretch to imagine that Jensen Huang himself is a national security risk.

I’ll have more in today’s One Bar Ahead® update later today along with a few thoughts on how to handle what’s happening… and possibly, even turn a buck along the way, too.

[Keith Fitz-Gerald @fitz_keith]

If you enjoyed my take, you may also enjoy the Five with Fitz!

I've published it entirely for free for years, and I will NEVER share, spam or partake in any slimy marketing because I hate that **** as much as you do!

People tell me it’s changed their lives – which is humbling as heck! 😀

Daily, free and actionable. 👇

https://t.co/TnjuyirsKa

[Keith Fitz-Gerald @fitz_keith]

In today's Five with Fitz,

My ears perked up when I heard this

$PNC Bank is teaming up with Coinbase to let its corporate and institutional clients receive payments in USDC, which is a digital stablecoin pegged 1:1 to the US dollar.

Issued by Circle, every coin is backed by cash and short-term Treasuries held in reserve, so one USDC is always worth one dollar. When PNC clients receive it, it’s automatically converted back to plain old dollars.

Last year, PNC partnered with Coinbase for crypto trading. Now it’s wiring stablecoins directly into its treasury business… aka the real money-moving machinery.

My ears perked up.

Here’s why.

A cross-border wire transfer can take days, whereas a stablecoin payment settles nearly instantly, 24/7.

JPMorgan, which has been right on more of these calls than just about anybody I’m familiar with, got there first and actually began working on digital clearing nearly a decade ago. I thought it would be a game-changer and told investors as much at the time and have – fortunately – been spot on the money (pun absolutely intended).

JPM has returned ~150.39% since then versus ~79.10% from the SPY, a popular choice for passive investors. A ~1.9 to 1 performance advantage.

CEO Jamie Dimon has never been a fan of crypto speculation, but when it comes to the plumbing, the bank’s been all in.

Hooyah!

Keith’s Investing Tip: People constantly hunt for shiny new toys, particularly small cap stocks, but what they fail to realize is that the biggest winners are increasingly from the biggest and best run companies.💡