Felix

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[Felix @fixitlehfelix]

From $10k in 2023 to $50k in 2026, is this considered good investment returns in the open market?

[Felix @fixitlehfelix]

@cnnbrk Biggest joke ever

[Felix @fixitlehfelix]

A common failure is business is copying/ replicating fast, but not reproducing the original economics

Verra's govt segment grew 13%. But it was a contract with "materially different" terms

[Felix @fixitlehfelix]

Verra's market cap is $650M. Its goodwill is $742M. The "value" acquisitions added is now worth more than the whole company

All it takes is one write-down. Book value made up of goodwill is the most fragile line in the books

[Felix @fixitlehfelix]

When an operations manual is in a founder's head, that is not a business. Its a high paying job that you're funding in the public markets

[Felix @fixitlehfelix]

After VRRM's stock fell 80%, insiders kept getting shares issued. None of them bought any. The company was literally giving them stock for FREE

When insiders take a gift but skip the bet (using their own money), that tells a lot. Never overlook the importance of skin-in-the game and incentives

[Felix @fixitlehfelix]

Verra Mobility earned $137M in 2025
The year before: $31M
Operating cash flow barely moved: $224M, then $256M

A $97M goodwill write-down gutted the earnings to $31M, but it never touched the cash. Always look at cash, its what truly runs a business

[Felix @fixitlehfelix]

Strategy (formerly micostrategy) issues preferred stock at 10–11.5% dividends to buy Bitcoin. This works not because bitcoin is valuable, but because its stock trades at a premium to the BTC it holds

But when the premium dies, the play will not make sense. So does the reason to hold MSTR over a spot ETF

[Felix @fixitlehfelix]

@amitisinvesting yea, let's wait till June 19 😂

[Felix @fixitlehfelix]

In some construction business, a common thing that we see is growth that was lent to customers who may not pay

When receivables grows faster than revenue, and credit loss expense jumps significantly, it tells a lot about the quality of earnings

[Felix @fixitlehfelix]

3.9x EBITDA only looks cheap if $415 mil EBITDA doesn't fall to $300 mil EBITDA

Study the quality of earnings

[Felix @fixitlehfelix]

Never let a buyback fool you. A buyback at the wrong price is value destruction and only acts as PR

Verra mobility purchased $558 million worth of stock at a price of $15–25, the stock is now $4.31

[Felix @fixitlehfelix]

Growth comes in two kinds, and they're not on a spectrum. One needs a fresh dollar in for every dollar out. The other feeds on its own output: subscriptions, network effects, compounding data

A company that never crossed that line isn't compounding. It's just getting bigger

[Felix @fixitlehfelix]

@Joker_of_Zero @SCMPNews What's the point of being useless when you can't even survive tho?

[Steve Burns @SJosephBurns]

“The point of getting rich is so you don't have to work with people you don't like or get along with people you don't want to.”

— Charlie Munger

[Felix @fixitlehfelix]

@MothershipSG Singapore's work and education system is ridiculous. Its becoming more negatively entrenched benefiting only the privileged and people in the system, gaming the system

[Felix @fixitlehfelix]

Guess who just raised $80 billion SELLING STOCK to fund its AI build-out?

Alphabet is famous for being a cash cow, but now its reaching outside to fund its AI growth. I don't know about you, but that's a MAJOR red-flag for me (at least in the short-term)

[Reuters @Reuters]

Alphabet plans to raise $80 billion for AI goals, Berkshire to invest $10 billion https://t.co/QULPX6482d https://t.co/QULPX6482d

[Felix @fixitlehfelix]

This week's sell-off was pretty brutal. But on the same day, Coca-Cola and TJX hit all time highs

That's not two stories tho, its one, because when the safest names break out as the market drops, it just means that the crowd is running to safety. That's the market sentiment now, and its important to recognize it

[Michael | Hypermarkets @itsmichaelluu]

97% probability $SPY crashes at least 10% after June 15.

There's 4 massive reasons $SPY can't avoid it:

1. Large IPOs like $SPCX will trigger sell off.
Major IPOs drain liquidity. The 1999–2000 dot-com IPO wave pulled $100B+ from markets before $SPY crashed 78%.

2. Kevin Warsh hawkish FOMC on June 17
Hawkish Fed surprises trigger immediate selloffs. In June 2022, a surprise 75bps hike sent SPY down 8.4% in 5 days.

3. $MU $ORCL earnings is the peak of market
Semis and enterprise software peak earnings historically signal cycle tops. $MU peaked in June 2018 $SPY followed with a 20% correction by December.

4. Midterm elections for Trump is this year
Midterm years average a 17% $SPY drawdown before Q4 recovery. 2022 saw $SPY drop 25% into October before reversing Trump's 2026 midterms follow the same cycle.

♻️ RESHARE this post and write 1 comment, I'll share with you my $SPY target for the crash.

[Felix @fixitlehfelix]

The biggest IPO in history was four times oversubscribed and ran 20%+ above its price

That measures one thing: how badly people wanted in. Not what the business is worth. Let's see who is swimming naked after the tide goes out

[Shruti @heyshrutimishra]

Elon just created 4,400 millionaires in a single day.

400 of them are now worth over $100 million.

These aren't VCs. They're SpaceX employees, and the list includes welders, technicians, and cafeteria staff, because for two decades the company paid every level of the workforce in stock instead of higher salaries.

Juan Hernandez immigrated from Mexico and took a $28 an hour contractor welding job in 2015. He says he didn't even know what SpaceX was. The company gave him a $10,000 equity grant and let him buy more shares through payroll deductions. That stake is now worth $880,000.

Trevor Hise's parents wanted him to take a stable job at General Electric. He picked SpaceX instead, stayed 12 years, and accumulated over 100,000 shares. At the $135 listing price that's $13.5 million. He's 37 and semiretired. His words: "The magnitude of this has been ridiculous."

The most telling detail came before the listing. Over 100 employees quietly banded together and negotiated a group wealth management deal covering up to $5 billion, because none of them had ever needed a wealth manager before.

Software IPOs have minted millionaires for 30 years. This is the first one where the money went to the factory floor.

[Felix @fixitlehfelix]

SpaceX's ~$75B raise = barely two weeks of normal S&P buyback supply. Exchange stocks (CME −9%, Cboe −16%) crashes on bitcoin perpetual-futures approval

You should not touch stocks if you can't already tell the massive danger from here