Fjord Alpha

Analyzing Northern European mid-caps targeting 20%+ CAGR. Long-time investor with Nordic roots. In-depth research memos on Substack

[Fjord Alpha @FjordAlpha]

Pinning this thread with introduction to myself, and links to some of my recent deep-dive memos on Substack, e.g. $EVO, $EMBRAC, $CHEMM, $CARA, $VITEC, $AMBU. You find them in the thread, and more on https://t.co/Z1EKpCiWwP

[Fjord Alpha @FjordAlpha]

1/x Two months ago, I launched Fjord Alpha on Substack (https://t.co/Z1EKpCiWwP). It would be a place for me to write about my passion, deep dives into Northern European companies. Honestly, it's been a ride. I thought I knew what to expect after 25 years of investing =>

[Fjord Alpha @FjordAlpha]

(2/2)...we see;

17% ARR growth
24% Secure & Custom growth
46% Adj. EBITDA margin
Rule of 40 score of 47

Different profile from the turnaround story of the past. At around NOK 80, the entry point looks challenging. Full $PEXIP break-down;

https://t.co/Uf2TAwx0O7

[Fjord Alpha @FjordAlpha]

(1/2) Pexip $PEXIP is easy to dismiss as “another video-conferencing company”. That misses the point.

The interesting part is the secure layer: private, sovereign, and sometimes air-gapped collaboration where Teams is not enough.

The Q1-26 report made that case stronger...

[Fjord Alpha @FjordAlpha]

Hexatronic $HTRO is in a very interesting phase. 🚀 It’s officially an AI and Defense play. Data Centers are now the #1 profit engine and US fiber is already growing before the BEAD stimulus even hits.

My take on the Q1 report:
https://t.co/WuRA590usr

[Fjord Alpha @FjordAlpha]

Vitec Software $VITEC $VIT.B $VITB.ST $VITB Q1-26 report was solid, with profitability outpacing top-line growth.

I'm buying, but keeping some powder dry until the technicals confirm the bottom. My reflections and updated valuation (free to read): 👇

https://t.co/1hpdrTwr0j

[Fjord Alpha @FjordAlpha]

@absface As long as Daniel sits at the helm, I hope and don’t believe we will see any M&A spree. Smaller strategic bolt-ons will be the melody. A bid would not be surprising - but I prefer they stay listed so that I can enjoy the ride 💪
https://t.co/sWRjxxEq6v

[Fjord Alpha @FjordAlpha]

My take on Evolution's $EVO Q1-26 report. The stock traded down on the report but has since recovered, with green sprouts emerging under the hood, and of course the €1.2 billion capital allocation engima;
https://t.co/vkwCQvemsB

[Fjord Alpha @FjordAlpha]

(2/2) ...if you know how Swedish private healthcare routes its lab and radiology results, this is a AAA-example of deepening a moat at a very fair price.

In this article, I am unpacking the strategic fit and the math behind $CARA's SEK 115m deal:

https://t.co/sWRjxxEq6v

[Fjord Alpha @FjordAlpha]

(1/2) Very exciting bolt-on today by Carasent $CARA

The stock is trading up on today's news, and rightly so. Most vertical SaaS M&A is just buying expensive customer lists, and paying 2.8x ARR for a breakeven business could raise eyebrows. However...

[Fjord Alpha @FjordAlpha]

Carasent $CARA Q1-26: Core strength, surface noise. 📈
Does it still have multi-bagger potential over the next 5 years?
I’ve updated my notes and valuation scenarios following the latest report:
https://t.co/vOkBgmB0Pq

[Fjord Alpha @FjordAlpha]

$CARA Carasent Q1-26 report - Beyond continued ARR development, I note the promising commentary and traction around Medsum. Consulting revenues lower, but not in main focus. Will get back with a longer article on my Substack with deeper reflections.

https://t.co/d8N5tz4O6j

[Fjord Alpha @FjordAlpha]

@victorihrman Surprising stock reaction - as noted the lower consulting fees is old news. ARR growth getting (even) stronger, solid NRR, Medsum picking up speed and Germany getting first paid customer. What’s not to like? 💪

[Aakash Gupta @aakashgupta]

There's a physicist at Stanford named Safi Bahcall who modeled this exact principle and the math is wild.

He calls it "phase transitions in human networks." When you're stationary, your probability of a lucky event is limited to your existing surface area: the people you already know, the places you already go, the ideas you've already been exposed to. Your opportunity window is fixed.

When you move, your collision rate with new nodes in a network increases nonlinearly. Double your movement (new conversations, new cities, new projects) and your probability of a serendipitous encounter doesn't double. It roughly quadruples. Because each new node connects you to their entire network, not just to them.

Richard Wiseman ran a 10-year study at the University of Hertfordshire tracking self-described "lucky" and "unlucky" people. The single biggest differentiator wasn't IQ, education, or family money. Lucky people scored significantly higher on one trait: openness to experience. They talked to strangers more, varied their routines more, and said yes to invitations at nearly twice the rate.

The "unlucky" group followed the same routes, ate at the same restaurants, and talked to the same 5 people. Their networks were closed loops. No new inputs, no new collisions.

Luck isn't random. Luck is surface area. And surface area is a function of movement.

The lobster emoji is doing more work than most people realize. Lobsters grow by shedding their shell when it gets too tight. The growth requires a period of total vulnerability. No protection, no armor, soft body exposed to the ocean.

That's the cost of movement nobody posts about. You have to be uncomfortable first. The new shell only hardens after you've already moved.

[Fjord Alpha @FjordAlpha]

@emilpettersso Thanks for reading, happy you liked it :)

[Fjord Alpha @FjordAlpha]

🧵 New deep-dive: RaySearch Laboratories $RAYS

The stock is down 50% from its peak. The market still sees a treatment planning tool, while in reality it is an oncology software platform in the making.

Here's why this stock could provide an attractive journey the next years. ↓

[Fjord Alpha @FjordAlpha]

4/ At the moment, the market prices RaySearch like a niche planning vendor. But if the platform transition plays out, this becomes the operating system for radiation oncology. Full analysis on Fjord Alpha 👇

https://t.co/6taJPc9tB5

[Fjord Alpha @FjordAlpha]

3/ RaySearch has proven itself in "proton therapy", the hardest planning environment in radiation oncology. If it works there, conventional photon therapy is a given. This type of credibility is hard, next to impossible, to replicate.